A general approach to validating evacuation models with an application to EXODUS

Too often, validation of computer models is considered as a "once and forget" task. In this paper a systematic and graduated approach to evacua tion model validation is suggested.

Stochastic monotonicity and duality for continuous time Markov chains with general q-Matrix

The key problems in discussing stochastic monotonicity and duality for continuous time Markov chains are to give the criteria for existence and uniqueness and to construct the associated monotone processes in terms of their infinitesimal q -matrices. In their recent paper, Chen and Zhang [6] discussed these problems under the condition that the given q-matrix Q is conservative. The aim of this paper is to generalize their results to a more general case, i.e., the given q-matrix Q is not necessarily conservative. New problems arise 'in removing the conservative assumption. The existence and uniqueness criteria for this general case are given in this paper. Another important problem, the construction of all stochastically monotone Q-processes, is also considered.

Uniqueness criteria for continuous-time Markov chains with general transition structures

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

General Harris regularity criterion for non-linear Markov branching processes

We extend the Harris regularity condition for ordinary Markov branching process to a more general case of non-linear Markov branching process. A regularity criterion which is very easy to check is obtained. In particular, we prove that a super-linear Markov branching process is regular if and only if the per capita offspring mean is less than or equal to I while a sub-linear Markov branching process is regular if the per capita offspring mean is finite. The Harris regularity condition then becomes a special case of our criterion.

Characterizing the most general temporal constraint

This paper introduces a characterization of the so-called most general temporal constraint (GTC), which guarantees the common-sense assertion that "the beginning of the effect cannot precede the beginning of the cause". The formalism is based on general time theory which takes both points and intervals as primitive. It is shown that there are in fact 8 possible causal relationships which satisfy GTC, including cases where, on the one hand, effects start simultaneously with, during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and on the other hand, events end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. These causal relationships are versatile enough to subsume those representatives in the literature.

Survival in 176 patients with inoperable non small cell lung cancer treated initially with chemotherapy in a district general hospital

In advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) platinum based chemotherapy with second generation drugs improves median survival (MS) to 8 months and 29% and 10% at 1 and 2 years. Platinum with a third generation drug can improve survival further (BMJ 1995;311: 899) (Spiro et al. Thorax 2004;59:828 Big Lung Trial; N Engl J Med 2003;346:92 ECOG study). NICE now recommends chemotherapy with platinum and a third generation drug for inoperable NSCLC as the first treatment modality. Methods: We audited survival of 176/461 consecutive patients referred for at least 3 courses of platinum and either gemcitabine or vinorelbine from July 2001 to December 2005. Minimal follow up 17 months. Chemotherapy was given on site. Radical radiotherapy for stage IIIA, palliative radiotherapy and second line drugs were given as felt appropriate. Results: 64% were male. 30 (17%) were <55 years ; 66 (37.5%) age 55–65 years; 63 (35.8%) aged 66–75 and 16 (9.1%) >75 years. 5 (2.8%) were stage II; 46 (26%) stage IIIA; 68 (38%) stage IIIB and 55 (30.8%) stage IV. 68 (38%) had 0– 2 courses; 63 (36%) 3 courses and 44 (25%) had 4 or more.

Fostering 'habits of reflection, independent study and free inquiry': an analysis of the short-lived phenomenon of General/Liberal Studies in English vocational education and training

In 1957, 12 years after the end of World War II, the Ministry of Education issued Circular 323 to promote the development of an element of ‘liberal studies’ in courses offered by technical and further education (FE) colleges in England. This was perceived to be in some ways a peculiar or uncharacteristic development. However, it lasted over 20 years, during which time most students on courses in FE colleges participated in what were termed General or Liberal Studies classes that complemented and/or contrasted with the technical content of their vocational programmes. By the end of the 1970s, these classes had changed in character, moving away from the concept of a ‘liberal education’ towards a prescribed diet of ‘communication studies’. The steady decline in apprenticeship numbers from the late 1960s onwards accelerated in the late 1970s, resulting in a new type of student (the state-funded ‘trainee’) into colleges whose curriculum would be prescribed by the Manpower Services Commission. This paper examines the Ministry’s thinking and charts the rise and fall of a curriculum phenomenon that became immortalised in the ‘Wilt’ novels of Tom Sharpe. The paper argues that the Ministry of Education’s concerns half a century ago are still relevant now, particularly as fresh calls are being made to raise the leaving age from compulsory education to 18, and in light of attempts in England to develop new vocational diplomas for full-time students in schools and colleges.