The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

CFD fire simulation of the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire - part II: fire spread analysis

In 1998, Swissair Flight I I I (SR111) developed an in-flight fire shortly after take-off which resulted in the loss of the aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas MD-I 1, and all passengers and crew. The Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire and Explosion Group launched a four year investigation into the incident in an attempt to understand the cause and subsequent mechanisms which lead to the rapid spread of the in-flight fire. As part of this investigation, the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software was used to predict the 'possible' development of the fire and associated smoke movement. In this paper the CFD fire simulations are presented and model predictions compared with key findings from the investigation. The model predictions are shown to be consistent with a number of the investigation findings associated with the early stages of the fire development. The analysis makes use of simulated pre-fire airflow conditions within the MD-11 cockpit and above ceiling region presented in an earlier publication (Part 1) which was published in The Aeronautical Journal in January 2006(4).

Effect of adding 0.3wt% Ni into the Sn-0.7wt% Cu solder - Part II: Growth of intermetallic layer with Cu during wetting and aging

The growth behavior of intermetallic layer with or without adding 0.3 wt% Ni into the Sn-0.7Cu solder was studied during the wetting reaction on Cu-substrate and thereafter in solid-state aging condition. The Cu-solder reaction couple was prepared at 255, 275 and 295 °C for 10 s. The samples reacted at 255 °C were then isothermally aged for 2-14 days at 150 °C. The reaction species formed for the Sn-0.7Cu/Cu and Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni/Cu soldering systems were Cu6Sn5 and (CuNi)6Sn5, respectively. The thickness of the intermetallic compounds formed at the solder/Cu interfaces and also in the bulk of both solders increased with the increase of reaction temperature. It was found that Ni-containing Sn-0.7Cu solder exhibited lower growth of intermetallic layer during wetting and in the early stage of aging and eventually exceeded the intermetallic layer thickness of Sn-0.7Cu/Cu soldering system after 6 days of aging. As the aging time proceeds, a non-uniform intermetallic layer growth tendency was observed for the case of Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solder. The growth behavior of intermetallic layer during aging for both solders followed the diffusion-controlled mechanism. The intermetallic layer growth rate constants for Sn-0.7Cu and Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solders were calculated as 1.41 × 10-17 and 1.89 × 10-17 m2/s, respectively which indicated that adding 0.3 wt% Ni with Sn-0.7Cu solder contributed to the higher growth of intermetallic layer during aging. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vibrational spectroscopic studies of the structure of di-amino acid peptides. Part II: cyclo(L-Asp-L-Asp) in the solid state and in aqueous solution

Solid-state protonated and N,O-deuterated Fourier transform infrared (IR) and Raman scattering spectra together with the protonated and deuterated Raman spectra in aqueous solution of the cyclic di-amino acid peptide cyclo(L-Asp-L-Asp) are reported. Vibrational band assignments have been made on the basis of comparisons with previously cited literature values for diketopiperazine (DKP) derivatives and normal coordinate analyses for both the protonated and deuterated species based upon DFT calculations at the B3-LYP/cc-pVDZ level of the isolated molecule in the gas phase. The calculated minimum energy structure for cyclo(L-Asp-L-Asp), assuming C-2 symmetry, predicts a boat conformation for the DKP ring with both the two L-aspartyl side chains being folded slightly above the ring. The C=O stretching vibrations have been assigned for the side-chain carboxylic acid group (e.g. at 1693 and 1670 cm(-1) in the Raman spectrum) and the cis amide I bands (e.g. at 1660 cm(-1) in the Raman spectrum). The presence of two bands for the carboxylic acid C=O stretching modes in the solid-state Raman spectrum can be accounted for by factor group splitting of the two nonequivalent molecules in a crystallographic unit cell. The cis amide II band is observed at 1489 cm(-1) in the solid-state Raman spectrum, which is in agreement with results for cyclic di-amino acid peptide molecules examined previously in the solid state, where the DKP ring adopts a boat conformation. Additionally, it also appears that as the molecular mass of the substituent on the C-alpha atom is increased, the amide II band wavenumber decreases to below 1500 cm(-1); this may be a consequence of increased strain on the DKP ring. The cis amide II Raman band is characterized by its relatively small deuterium shift (29 cm(-1)), which indicates that this band has a smaller N-H bending contribution than the trans amide II vibrational band observed for linear peptides.

Managing alcohol related aggression in the emergency department (Part II)

Violence in the emergency department (ED) is a global problem. In our first paper, we highlighted the potential psychological effects of alcohol intoxication, the literatures discussion of alcohol related violence in the emergency department and the importance of developing positive nurse/service user relationships. In this second paper, we discuss personal and organisational strategies clinical nursing staff may consider appropriate to minimise the risk of assault when caring for service users projecting alcohol related aggression.

Representing and recognizing scenario patterns

This paper presents a formal method for representing and recognizing scenario patterns with rich internal temporal aspects. A scenario is presented as a collection of time-independent fluents, together with the corresponding temporal knowledge that can be relative and/or with absolute values. A graphical representation for temporal scenarios is introduced which supports consistence checking as for the temporal constraints. In terms of such a graphical representation, graph-matching algorithms/methodologies can be directly adopted for recognizing scenario patterns.

The valuation of property investments

In the seventh edition, the book has been updated and revised to reflect changes in the market, the development of appraisal methods and the subsequent changes in professional practice. The intial overview in Part I of the book, The Economic and Legal Framework, has been revisd to show the present position. Changes in appraisal techniques based on the research of the authors have been incorporated in Part II on Investment Valuation. Revisions have also been made in part II, again based on the research activities of the authors, which examines Investment Appraisal.The serves a number of purposes. First, it provides a critical examination of valuation techniques, with particular reference to the investment method of valuation. Second, it supplies practising valuers and appraisers with more effective data, information and techniques to enable them to carry out their valuations, appraisals and negotiations in an increasily competitive field. Finally, it provides assistance to students and academics in understanding the context of and a range of approaches to the valuation and appraisal of property investments. This book has been a key text in property investment appraisal for more than 30 years, it has sold many thousands of copies globally to academics, students and practitioners.