Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Personalised e-learning, semantic web and learning ontologies

Kurzel(2004) points out that researchers in e-learning and educational technologists, in a quest to provide improved Learning Environments (LE) for students are focusing on personalising the experience through a Learning Management System (LMS) that attempts to tailor the LE to the individual (see amongst others Eklund & Brusilovsky, 1998; Kurzel, Slay, & Hagenus, 2003; Martinez,2000; Sampson, Karagiannidis, & Kinshuk, 2002; Voigt & Swatman; 2003). According to Kurzel (2004) this tailoring can have an impact on content and how it’s accessed; the media forms used; method of instruction employed and the learning styles supported. This project is aiming to move personalisation forward to the next generation, by tackling the issue of Personalised e-Learning platforms as pre-requisites for building and generating individualised learning solutions. The proposed development is to create an e-learning platform with personalisation built-in. This personalisation is proposed to be set from different levels of within the system starting from being guided by the information that the user inputs into the system down to the lower level of being set using information inferred by the system’s processing engine. This paper will discuss some of our early work and ideas.

[Organiser of Stirling's Red Buildings Conference for the Twentieth Century Society]

The aim of the conference is to review the three 'Red Buildings' with experts who have studied their history and their performance, and to discuss their future. Work is due to take place on the Leicester and Oxford buildings in the relatively near future, and technical knowledge can be shared in a context of understanding the design intention. Also to celebrate Stirling and Gowan's careers from a broader perspective and to assert the value of looking after these special buildings as assets for the future. The speakers in the afternoon session are people who knew the two architects well, and in some cases worked for them. [From University of Leicester]

A small screen alternative to stone and bronze: The Great War series and British television

This article examines the first major British television series about the First World War, The Great War (BBC, 1964), in terms of its cultural, historical and aesthetic significance. As a central component of the BBC`s 50th anniversary commemorative programme to mark the outbreak of war, the series was a major media event -a small-screen memorial cast in sounds and images instead of stone and bronze. This article looks at how the British television audience responded to this form of on-screen commemoration. Material for this article was derived from the series' extensive production records housed in the BBC Written Archives Centre at Caversham, Berkshire. This was supplemented by, among other sources, material from interviews and correspondence with several surviving members of the production team. This allows a broader understanding of the motivations of those involved in the production of a groundbreaking historical series, while acknowledging the wide-ranging nature of its audience. [From the Publisher]

Policy packages as potential routes to urban road pricing in the UK

This paper focuses on urban road pricing as a demand management policy that is often regarded as radical and generally unacceptable. Road pricing often gets delayed or abandoned due to low acceptability. This may be due to the fact that complex interactions and drivers of change affect road transport management and require cooperation within implementation networks. The implementation network is a group of people (referred to as partners and actors) who co-ordinate the introduction of policy tools. The drivers of change include any internal or external influences that have an effect on the time, place, or ‘shape’ of the policy measures being introduced. Demand management measures that focus on 'sustainable transport' usually address a limited set of objectives and are often implemented alone i.e. are not necessarily combined with other policy measures. When combined with other measures, it is not always clear whether the multiple interactions between policy tools and implementation networks have been sufficiently considered. Examples of ongoing implementation of policy package in the UK are the support of road pricing initiatives combined with public transport improvements by the Transport Innovation Fund. The objectives of the paper are twofold. First, we present a review of the UK urban road pricing situation. Second, we contrast the emerging issues against six key implementation factors. The analysis of three existing UK road pricing examples - London, Edinburgh and Durham – shows the importance of combining policy tools. Furthermore, through the above examples and theoretical arguments, we emphasise the additional need of creating and maintaining strong networks when implementing policy packages.