Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Reducing the incidence of coronary heart disease

The incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been significantly reduced by the introduction of the National Service Framework in 2000 but has not yet reached set targets. This article analyses the adverse effects of specific CHD risk factors to the cardiovascular system and proposes local and national strategies for further reduction in the incidence, morbidity and mortality of CHD. It provides an example of how nurses can use a health promotion programme to support patients in giving up smoking, a major contributing factor in CHD. The programme uses cognitive behaviour therapy to improve patients' uptake and adherence.

Elif Şafak in conversation with Alev Adil: What do women novelists really want?

Two prolific novelists talked about their work, the work they admire and the role of women in the European literary scene.