An investigation into regional differences in educational performance in the National Child Development Study

The National Child Development Study (NCDS) is used to investigate factors which affect children's educational performance over time. Multilevel modelling techniques are used on a subset of the NCDS to investigate variation in educational performance in 11 regions in the UK, and in local education authorities within these regions. Social characteristics of the NCDS members are also analysed. Differences between regions and education authorities are found to be negligible, the main source of variation in achievement being due to differences in social background.

Temporal structure and enablement representation for mutual wills: A Petri net approach

Those temporal formalisms that are sporadically found nowadays in the literature of AI & Law are based on temporal logic. We claim a revived role for another major class of temporal representation: Petri nets. This formalism, popular in computing from the 1970s, had its potential recognized on occasion in the literature of legal computing as well, but apparently the discipline has lost sight of it, and its practitioners on average need be tutored into this kind of representation. Asynchronous, concurrent processes—for which the approach is well‐suited—are found in the legal domain, in disparate contexts. We develop an example for Mutual Wills.

Representing temporal knowledge in legal discourse

This paper presents a formalism for representing temporal knowledge in legal discourse that allows an explicit expression of time and event occurrences. The fundamental time structure is characterized as a well‐ordered discrete set of primitive times, i.e. non‐decomposable intervals with positive duration or points with zero duration), from which decomposable intervals can be constructed. The formalism supports a full representation of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge, and a formal mechanism for checking the temporal consistency of a given set of legal statements is provided. The general consistency checking algorithm which addresses both absolute and relative temporal knowledge turns out to be a linear programming problem, while in the special case where only relative temporal relations are involved, it becomes a simple question of searching for cycles in the graphical representation of the corresponding legal text.

Temporal representation of state transitions

This paper describes a knowledge-based temporal representation of state transitions for industrial real-time systems. To allow expression of uncertainty, we shall define fluents as disjuncts of positive/negative time-varying properties. A state of the world is represented as a collection of fluents, which is usually incomplete in the sense that neither the positive form nor the negative form of some properties can be implied from it. The world under consideration is assumed to persist in a given state until an action(s) takes place to effect a transition of it into another state, where actions may either be instantaneous or durative. High-level causal laws are characterized in terms of relationships between actions and the involved world states. An effect completion axiom is imposed on each causal law to guarantee that all the fluents that can be affected by the performance of the corresponding action are governed. This completion requirement is practical for most industrial real-time applications and in fact provides a simple and effective treatment to the so-called frame problem.

Guest Editorial. Special Issue: Temporal logic in engineering

Logic-based models are thriving within artificial intelligence. A great number of new logics have been defined, and their theory investigated. Epistemic logics introduce modal operators for knowledge or belief; deontic logics are about norms, and introduce operators of deontic necessity and possibility (i.e., obligation or prohibition). And then we have a much investigated class—temporal logics—to whose application to engineering this special issue is devoted. This kind of formalism deserves increased widespread recognition and application in engineering, a domain where other kinds of temporal models (e.g., Petri nets) are by now a fairly standard part of the modelling toolbox.

Species diversity structure analysis at two sites in the tropical rain forest of Sumatra

Data from a hilly forest study site at Batang Ule, Sumatra, are organized into 30 100-m × 10-m subplots lying perpendicular to the line of maximal topographic gradient, from the valley to the plateau/ridge. The following methodological question is addressed: what species diversity measures are best used in order to reveal the ecologically distinct regions in the site. The main tool used to answer this question is the α-diversity curve (Hα). Graphical examination of tree and species densities, and α-diversity curves identifies an anomalous species diversity behaviour of the ‘ridge above the slope’ subplots which may have implications on land-facet class definitions. Factor analysis of the α-diversity curves indicates that the diversity space is two-dimensional: i.e. two diversity measures are sufficient to characterize the site; the species density (H0), and the Berger-Parker index (H[infty infinity]). In the two-dimensional diversity-space three distinct species diversity groups are found which relate to the topographic gradient at the Batang Ule site. The results are compared with those for a flat homogeneous site at Pasirmayang, Sumatra. The implications of the results on land-classifications in species-diversity mapping and conservation strategy are discussed.

[Book review] Rights of the Accused, Crime Control and Protection of Victims

Review of: Rights of the Accused, Crime Control and Protection of Victims. Edited by Eliahu Harnon & Alex Stein. A special volume of the Israel Law Review, Vol. 31, Nos. 1-3, Winter-Summer 1997. Published by the Faculty of Law, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.

[Book review] Psychology and Law: Truthfulness, Accuracy and Credibility

Review of: Psychology and law : truthfulness, accuracy and credibility by Amina Memon, Aldert Vrij and Ray Bull. London: McGraw-Hill, 1998.

[Book review] Psicologia Della Prova [Psychology of Proof]

Review of: Psicologia Della Prova [Psychology of Proof] edited by C. Cabras, Giuffré, Milano. 1996.

[Book review] Complex Cases: Perspectives on the Netherlands Criminal Justice System

Review of: Complex Cases: Perspectives on the Netherlands Criminal Justice System. (Eds.) M. Malsch & J.F. Nijboer. Thela Thesis Publishers (2000)

Editorial

Editorial

The Jama legal narrative part I: The JAMA Model and narrative interpretation patterns

For the purposes of starting to tackle, within artificial intelligence (AI), the narrative aspects of legal narratives in a criminal evidence perspective, traditional AI models of narrative understanding can arguably supplement extant models of legal narratives from the scholarly literature of law, jury studies, or the semiotics of law. Not only: the literary (or cinematic) models prominent in a given culture impinge, with their poetic conventions, on the way members of the culture make sense of the world. This shows glaringly in the sample narrative from the Continent-the Jama murder, the inquiry, and the public outcry-we analyse in this paper. Apparently in the same racist crime category as the case of Stephen Lawrence's murder (in Greenwich on 22 April 1993) with the ensuing still current controversy in the UK, the Jama case (some 20 years ago) stood apart because of a very unusual element: the eyewitnesses identifying the suspects were a group of football referees and linesmen eating together at a restaurant, and seeing the sleeping man as he was set ablaze in a public park nearby. Professional background as witnesses-cum-factfinders in a mass sport, and public perceptions of their required characteristics, couldn't but feature prominently in the public perception of the case, even more so as the suspects were released by the magistrate conducting the inquiry. There are sides to this case that involve different expected effects in an inquisitorial criminal procedure system from the Continent, where an investigating magistrate leads the inquiry and prepares the prosecution case, as opposed to trial by jury under the Anglo-American adversarial system. In the JAMA prototype, we tried to approach the given case from the coign of vantage of narrative models from AI.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

Belief revision as applied within a descriptive model of jury deliberations

Belief revision is a well-researched topic within Artificial Intelligence (AI). We argue that the new model of belief revision as discussed here is suitable for general modelling of judicial decision making, along with the extant approach as known from jury research. The new approach to belief revision is of general interest, whenever attitudes to information are to be simulated within a multi-agent environment with agents holding local beliefs yet by interacting with, and influencing, other agents who are deliberating collectively. The principle of 'priority to the incoming information', as known from AI models of belief revision, is problematic when applied to factfinding by a jury. The present approach incorporates a computable model for local belief revision, such that a principle of recoverability is adopted. By this principle, any previously held belief must belong to the current cognitive state if consistent with it. For the purposes of jury simulation such a model calls for refinement. Yet, we claim, it constitutes a valid basis for an open system where other AI functionalities (or outer stimuli) could attempt to handle other aspects of the deliberation which are more specific to legal narratives, to argumentation in court, and then to the debate among the jurors.