A policy-definition language and prototype implementation library for policy-based autonomic systems

This paper presents work towards generic policy toolkit support for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be adapted dynamically and automatically. The work is motivated by three needs: the need for longer-term policy-based adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically adapted to continually maintain or improve its effectiveness despite changing environmental conditions; the need to enable non autonomics-expert practitioners to embed self-managing behaviours with low cost and risk; and the need for adaptive policy mechanisms that are easy to deploy into legacy code. A policy definition language is presented; designed to permit powerful expression of self-managing behaviours. The language is very flexible through the use of simple yet expressive syntax and semantics, and facilitates a very diverse policy behaviour space through both hierarchical and recursive uses of language elements. A prototype library implementation of the policy support mechanisms is described. The library reads and writes policies in well-formed XML script. The implementation extends the state of the art in policy-based autonomics through innovations which include support for multiple policy versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta-policies to dynamically select between policy instances and templates. Most significantly, the scheme supports hot-swapping between policy instances. To illustrate the feasibility and generalised applicability of these tools, two dissimilar example deployment scenarios are examined. The first is taken from an exploratory implementation of self-managing parallel processing, and is used to demonstrate the simple and efficient use of the tools. The second example demonstrates more-advanced functionality, in the context of an envisioned multi-policy stock trading scheme which is sensitive to environmental volatility

Experimental study of the effectiveness of emergency signage

Signage systems play an important role in aiding occupants during both circulation and evacuation. Despite the fact that signage systems are an important component in building wayfinding systems, there is a lack of relevant data regarding how occupants detect, interpret and use the information conveyed by emergency signage. The effectiveness of signage systems is therefore difficult to assess. In this paper we address this issue through experimentation. The experiment involved measuring the impact of a signage system on a population of 68 test subjects who were instructed to individually vacate a building as quickly as possible via any means they thought appropriate. The evacuation path involved a number of decision points at which emergency signage was available to identify the appropriate path. Through analysis of video footage and data derived from questionnaires, the number of people who saw and utilised the signage information to assist their egress is determined. The results are then incorporated within the buildingEXODUS software and used in a demonstration of agent interaction with signage systems in a hypothetical evacuation scenario.

Modelling pedestrian escalator behaviour

This paper presents an escalator model for use in circulation and evacuation analysis. As part of the model development, human factors data was collected from a Spanish underground station. The collected data relates to: escalator/stair choice, rider/walker preference, rider side preference, walker travel speeds and escalator flow rates. The dataset provides insight into pedestrian behaviour in utilising escalators and is a useful resource for both circulation and evacuation models. Based on insight derived from the dataset a detailed microscopic escalator model which incorporates person-person interactions has been developed. A range of demonstration evacuation scenarios are presented using the newly developed microscopic escalator model.

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Synthesis of cycloruthenated compounds as potential anticancer agents

A library of 19 cycloruthenated derivatives is constructed by making use of the well-known cyclometalation reaction. Their geometries are modified in a straightforward manner by addition of either mono- or bidentate ligands, such as bipyridine, phenanthroline, 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphanyl)ethane, dimethylphenylphosphane, triphenylphosphane, and 1,3,5-triaza-7-phosphatricyclo[3.3.1.1]decane (PTA) ligands, to cationic cycloruthenated centers. The antitumor properties of the compounds thus obtained are investigated in order to compare them with recently reported ruthenium complexes and cisplatin. IC50 values against mammalian cells (A-172, HCT-116, and RDM-4) are determined for the library compounds and some of them, such as those derived from orthoruthenated phenylpyridine and a bidentate N,N ligand, display activity of the same order of magnitude as cisplatin.