Kappa calculus and evidential strength: A note on Åqvist's logical theory of legal evidence

Lennart Åqvist (1992) proposed a logical theory of legal evidence, based on the Bolding-Ekelöf of degrees of evidential strength. This paper reformulates Åqvist's model in terms of the probabilistic version of the kappa calculus. Proving its acceptability in the legal context is beyond the present scope, but the epistemological debate about Bayesian Law isclearly relevant. While the present model is a possible link to that lineof inquiry, we offer some considerations about the broader picture of thepotential of AI & Law in the evidentiary context. Whereas probabilisticreasoning is well-researched in AI, calculations about the threshold ofpersuasion in litigation, whatever their value, are just the tip of theiceberg. The bulk of the modeling desiderata is arguably elsewhere, if one isto ideally make the most of AI's distinctive contribution as envisaged forlegal evidence research.

Using set operations to deal with the frame problem

This paper presents a simple approach to the so-called frame problem based on some ordinary set operations, which does not require non-monotonic reasoning. Following the notion of the situation calculus, we shall represent a state of the world as a set of fluents, where a fluent is simply a Boolean-valued property whose truth-value is dependent on the time. High-level causal laws are characterised in terms of relationships between actions and the involved world states. An effect completion axiom is imposed on each causal law, which guarantees that all the fluents that can be affected by the performance of the corresponding action are always totally governed. It is shown that, compared with other techniques, such a set operation based approach provides a simpler and more effective treatment to the frame problem.

Assessing the suitability of ship design for human factors issues associated with evacuation and normal operations

Evaluating ship layout for human factors (HF) issues using simulation software such as maritimeEXODUS can be a long and complex process. The analysis requires the identification of relevant evaluation scenarios; encompassing evacuation and normal operations; the development of appropriate measures which can be used to gauge the performance of crew and vessel and finally; the interpretation of considerable simulation data. In this paper we present a systematic and transparent methodology for assessing the HF performance of ship design which is both discriminating and diagnostic. The methodology is demonstrated using two variants of a hypothetical naval ship.