[BSHM meetings] Topics in the history of financial mathematics: early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets

This account provides an overview of the study day, entitled 'Topics in the History of Financial Mathematics: Early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets,' held by the British Society for the History of Mathematics jointly with Gresham College, at Gresham College, London on 25th April 2008. The series of talks explored the development of mathematics and mathematical techniques in a commercial and financial context.

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Application of regularization methods to damage detection in large scale plane frame structures using incomplete noisy modal data

This paper presents an approach for detecting local damage in large scale frame structures by utilizing regularization methods for ill-posed problems. A direct relationship between the change in stiffness caused by local damage and the measured modal data for the damaged structure is developed, based on the perturbation method for structural dynamic systems. Thus, the measured incomplete modal data can be directly adopted in damage identification without requiring model reduction techniques, and common regularization methods could be effectively employed to solve the developed equations. Damage indicators are appropriately chosen to reflect both the location and severity of local damage in individual components of frame structures such as in brace members and at beam-column joints. The Truncated Singular Value Decomposition solution incorporating the Generalized Cross Validation method is introduced to evaluate the damage indicators for the cases when realistic errors exist in modal data measurements. Results for a 16-story building model structure show that structural damage can be correctly identified at detailed level using only limited information on the measured noisy modal data for the damaged structure.

The future of energy: are competitive markets and nuclear power the answer?

The inaugural lecture of Professor Stephen Thomas at the University of Greenwich, 4th February 2010. It examines whether further pursuit of competition in energy markets and expansion in the role of nuclear power can be the main elements in a policy to meet goals of security, sustainability and affordability.