Fitting host-parasitoid models with CV² > 1 using hierarchical generalized linear models

The powerful general Pacala-Hassell host-parasitoid model for a patchy environment, which allows host density–dependent heterogeneity (HDD) to be distinguished from between-patch, host density–independent heterogeneity (HDI), is reformulated within the class of the generalized linear model (GLM) family. This improves accessibility through the provision of general software within well–known statistical systems, and allows a rich variety of models to be formulated. Covariates such as age class, host density and abiotic factors may be included easily. For the case where there is no HDI, the formulation is a simple GLM. When there is HDI in addition to HDD, the formulation is a hierarchical generalized linear model. Two forms of HDI model are considered, both with between-patch variability: one has binomial variation within patches and one has extra-binomial, overdispersed variation within patches. Examples are given demonstrating parameter estimation with standard errors, and hypothesis testing. For one example given, the extra-binomial component of the HDI heterogeneity in parasitism is itself shown to be strongly density dependent.

A Markov modulated Poisson process model for rainfall increments

The problems encountered when using traditional rectangular pulse hierarchical point processmodels for fine temporal resolution and the growing number of available tip-time records suggest that rainfall increments from tipping-bucket gauges be modelled directly. Poisson processes are used with an arrival rate modulated by a Markov chain in Continuous time. The paper shows how, by using two or three states for this chain, much of the structure of the rainfall intensity distribution and the wet/dry sequences can be represented for time-scales as small as 5 minutes.

A reconfigurable component model using reflection

Providing a method of transparent communication and interoperation between distributed software is a requirement for many organisations and several standard and non-standard infrastructures exist for this purpose. Component models do more than just provide a plumbing mechanism for distributed applications, they provide a more controlled interoperation between components. There are very few component models however that have support for advanced dynamic reconfigurability. This paper describes a component model which provides controlled and constrained transparent communication and inter-operation between components in the form of a hierarchical component model. At the same time, the model contains support for advanced run-time reconfigurability of components. The process and benefits of designing a system using the presented model are discussed. A way in which reflective techniques and component frameworks can work together to produce dynamic adaptable systems is explained.