Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

The FUELCON meta-architecture, II: alternatives for parameter prediction

We continue the discussion of the decision points in the FUELCON metaarchitecture. Having discussed the relation of the original expert system to its sequel projects in terms of an AND/OR tree, we consider one further domain for a neural component: parameter prediction downstream of the core reload candidate pattern generator, thus, a replacement for the NOXER simulator currently in use in the project.

pKa values of aqua ligands of platinum (II) anticancer complexes: [1H, 15N] and 195Pt NMR Studies of cis- and trans- [PtCl2 (NH3) (Cyclohexylamine)]

Syntheses and NMR studies are reported of two 15N-labelled Pt(II) complexes of anticancer interest: cis-PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H1115NH2), a metabolite of the orally-active Pt(IV) complex cis,trans,cis-[PtCl2(acetate)2(c-C6H11NH2)(NH3), and trans-[PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H1115NH2), a reduction product of the active Pt(IV) complex trans,trans,trans-[PtCl2(OH)2(c-C6H11NH2). For cis-[PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H1115NH2), hydrolysis was faster for the chloride ligand trans to cyclohexylamine, and the pKa values determined by [1H, 15N NMR spectroscopy for the two cis monoaqua isomers were the same (6.73). The trans monoaqua complex was a stronger acid with pKa of 5.4 (determined by 195Pt NMR). For the cis diaqua complex, pKa values of 5.68 and 7.68 were determined.

The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

Effect of adding 0.3wt% Ni into the Sn-0.7wt% Cu solder - Part II: Growth of intermetallic layer with Cu during wetting and aging

The growth behavior of intermetallic layer with or without adding 0.3 wt% Ni into the Sn-0.7Cu solder was studied during the wetting reaction on Cu-substrate and thereafter in solid-state aging condition. The Cu-solder reaction couple was prepared at 255, 275 and 295 °C for 10 s. The samples reacted at 255 °C were then isothermally aged for 2-14 days at 150 °C. The reaction species formed for the Sn-0.7Cu/Cu and Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni/Cu soldering systems were Cu6Sn5 and (CuNi)6Sn5, respectively. The thickness of the intermetallic compounds formed at the solder/Cu interfaces and also in the bulk of both solders increased with the increase of reaction temperature. It was found that Ni-containing Sn-0.7Cu solder exhibited lower growth of intermetallic layer during wetting and in the early stage of aging and eventually exceeded the intermetallic layer thickness of Sn-0.7Cu/Cu soldering system after 6 days of aging. As the aging time proceeds, a non-uniform intermetallic layer growth tendency was observed for the case of Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solder. The growth behavior of intermetallic layer during aging for both solders followed the diffusion-controlled mechanism. The intermetallic layer growth rate constants for Sn-0.7Cu and Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solders were calculated as 1.41 × 10-17 and 1.89 × 10-17 m2/s, respectively which indicated that adding 0.3 wt% Ni with Sn-0.7Cu solder contributed to the higher growth of intermetallic layer during aging. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.