Fitting host-parasitoid models with CV² > 1 using hierarchical generalized linear models

The powerful general Pacala-Hassell host-parasitoid model for a patchy environment, which allows host density–dependent heterogeneity (HDD) to be distinguished from between-patch, host density–independent heterogeneity (HDI), is reformulated within the class of the generalized linear model (GLM) family. This improves accessibility through the provision of general software within well–known statistical systems, and allows a rich variety of models to be formulated. Covariates such as age class, host density and abiotic factors may be included easily. For the case where there is no HDI, the formulation is a simple GLM. When there is HDI in addition to HDD, the formulation is a hierarchical generalized linear model. Two forms of HDI model are considered, both with between-patch variability: one has binomial variation within patches and one has extra-binomial, overdispersed variation within patches. Examples are given demonstrating parameter estimation with standard errors, and hypothesis testing. For one example given, the extra-binomial component of the HDI heterogeneity in parasitism is itself shown to be strongly density dependent.

A class of generalized Lévy Laplacians in infinite dimensional calculus

A class of generalized Lévy Laplacians which contain as a special case the ordinary Lévy Laplacian are considered. Topics such as limit average of the second order functional derivative with respect to a certain equally dense (uniformly bounded) orthonormal base, the relations with Kuo’s Fourier transform and other infinite dimensional Laplacians are studied.

Components of error of maps from remotely sensed images

The concept of a “true” ground-truth map is introduced, from which the inaccuracy/error of any production map may be measured. A partition of the mapped region is defined in terms of the “residual rectification” transformation. Geometric RMS-type and Geometric Distortion error criteria are defined as well as a map mis-classification error criterion (the latter for hard and fuzzy produc-tion maps). The total map error is defined to be the sum (over each set of the map partition men-tioned above) of these three error components integrated over each set of the partition.

Generalized Markov branching processes

A generalized Markov Brnching Process (GMBP) is a Markov branching model where the infinitesimal branching rates are modified with an interaction index. It is proved that there always exists only one GMBP. An associated differential-integral equation is derived. The extinction probalility and the mean and conditional mean extinction times are obtained. Ergodicity and stability of GMBP with resurrection are also considered. Easy checking criteria are established for ordinary and strong ergodicty. The equilibrium distribution is given in an elegant closed form. The probability meaning of our results is clear and thus explained.

Collaborating components in mesh-based electronic packaging

From the model geometry creation to the model analysis, the stages in between such as mesh generation are the most manpower intensive phase in a mesh-based computational mechanics simulation process. On the other hand the model analysis is the most computing intensive phase. Advanced computational hardware and software have significantly reduced the computing time - and more importantly the trend is downward. With the kind of models envisaged coming, which are larger, more complex in geometry and modelling, and multiphysics, there is no clear trend that the manpower intensive phase is to decrease significantly in time - in the present way of operation it is more likely to increase with model complexity. In this paper we address this dilemma in collaborating components for models in electronic packaging application.

Computational modeling techniques for reliability of electronic components on printed circuit boards

This paper describes modeling technology and its use in providing data governing the assembly and subsequent reliability of electronic chip components on printed circuit boards (PCBs). Products, such as mobile phones, camcorders, intelligent displays, etc., are changing at a tremendous rate where newer technologies are being applied to satisfy the demands for smaller products with increased functionality. At ever decreasing dimensions, and increasing number of input/output connections, the design of these components, in terms of dimensions and materials used, is playing a key role in determining the reliability of the final assembly. Multiphysics modeling techniques are being adopted to predict a range of interacting physics-based phenomena associated with the manufacturing process. For example, heat transfer, solidification, marangoni fluid flow, void movement, and thermal-stress. The modeling techniques used are based on finite volume methods that are conservative and take advantage of being able to represent the physical domain using an unstructured mesh. These techniques are also used to provide data on thermal induced fatigue which is then mapped into product lifetime predictions.

Low Reynolds number turbulence models for accurate thermal simulations of electronic components

The electronics industry and the problems associated with the cooling of microelectronic equipment are developing rapidly. Thermal engineers now find it necessary to consider the complex area of equipment cooling at some level. This continually growing industry also faces heightened pressure from consumers to provide electronic product miniaturization, which in itself increases the demand for accurate thermal management predictions to assure product reliability. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is considered a powerful and almost essential tool for the design, development and optimization of engineering applications. CFD is now widely used within the electronics packaging design community to thermally characterize the performance of both the electronic component and system environment. This paper discusses CFD results for a large variety of investigated turbulence models. Comparison against experimental data illustrates the predictive accuracy of currently used models and highlights the growing demand for greater mathematical modelling accuracy with regards to thermal characterization. Also a newly formulated low Reynolds number (i.e. transitional) turbulence model is proposed with emphasis on hybrid techniques.

Turbulence modelling and its impact on CFD predictions for cooling of electronic components

This paper will discuss Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results from an investigation into the accuracy of several turbulence models to predict air cooling for electronic packages and systems. Also new transitional turbulence models will be proposed with emphasis on hybrid techniques that use the k-ε model at an appropriate distance away from the wall and suitable models, with wall functions, near wall regions. A major proportion of heat emitted from electronic packages can be extracted by air cooling. This flow of air throughout an electronic system and the heat extracted is highly dependent on the nature of turbulence present in the flow. The use of CFD for such investigations is fast becoming a powerful and almost essential tool for the design, development and optimization of engineering applications. However turbulence models remain a key issue when tackling such flow phenomena. The reliability of CFD analysis depends heavily on the turbulence model employed together with the wall functions implemented. In order to resolve the abrupt fluctuations experienced by the turbulent energy and other parameters located at near wall regions and shear layers a particularly fine computational mesh is necessary which inevitably increases the computer storage and run-time requirements. The PHYSICA Finite Volume code was used for this investigation. With the exception of the k-ε and k-ω models which are available as standard within PHYSICA, all other turbulence models mentioned were implemented via the source code by the authors. The LVEL, LVEL CAP, Wolfshtein, k-ε, k-ω, SST and kε/kl models are described and compared with experimental data.

Lifetime assessment of electronic components for high reliability aerospace applications

This paper details a modelling approach for assessing the in-service (field) reliability and thermal fatigue life-time of electronic package interconnects for components used in the assembly of an aerospace system. The Finite Element slice model of a Plastic Ball Grid Array (PBGA) package and suitable energy based damage models for crack length predictions are used in this study. Thermal fatigue damage induced in tin-lead solder joints are investigated by simulating the crack growth process under a set of prescribed field temperature profiles that cover the period of operational life. The overall crack length in the solder joint for all different thermal profiles and number of cycles for each profile is predicted using a superposition technique. The effect of using an underfill is also presented. A procedure for verifying the field lifetime predictions for the electronic package by using reliability assessment under Accelerated Thermal Cycle (ATC) testing is also briefly outlined.

A study of modelling approaches for rail vehicle collision behaviour

A rigid wall model has been used widely in the numerical simulation of rail vehicle impacts. Finite element impact modelling of rail vehicles is generally based on a half-width and full-length or half-length structure, depending on the symmetry. The structure and components of rail vehicles are normally designed to cope with proof loading to ensure adequate ride performance. In this paper, the authors present a study of a rail vehicle with driving cab focused on improving the modelling approach and exploring the intrinsic structural weaknesses to enhance its crashworthiness. The underpinning research used finite element analysis and compared the behaviour of the rail vehicle in different impact scenarios. It was found that the simulation of a rigid wall impact can mask structural weaknesses; that even a completely symmetrical impact may lead to an asymmetrical result; that downward bending is an intrinsic weakness of conventional rail vehicles and that a rigid part of the vehicle structure, such as the body bolster, may cause uncoordinated deformation and shear fracture between the vehicle sections. These findings have significance for impact simulation, the full-scale testing of rail vehicles and rail vehicle design in general.

Modelling the reliability of components on flexible substrates

The use of flexible substrates is growing in many applications such as computer peripherals, hand held devices, telecommunications, automotive, aerospace, etc. The drive to adopt flexible circuits is due to their ability to reduce size, weight, assembly time and cost of final product. they also accommodate flexibility by allowing relative movement between component parts and provide a route for three dimensional packaging. This paper will describe some of the current research results from the Flex-No-Lead project, European Commission sponsored programme. The principle aim of this project is to investigate the processing, performance and reliability of flexible substrates when subjected to new environmentally friendly, lead-free soldering technologies. This paper will discuss the impact of specific design variables on performance and reliability. In particular the paper will focus on copper track designs, substrate material, dielectric material and solder mask defined joints

Multi-physics modelling for the fabrication, packaging and reliability of micro-systems components

The latest advances in multi-physics modelling both using high fidelity techniques and reduced order and behavioural models will be discussed. Particular focus will be given to the application and validation of these techniques for modelling the fabrication, packaging and subsequent reliability of micro-systems based components. The paper will discuss results from a number of research projects with particular emphasis on the techniques being developed in a major UK Goverment funded project - 3D-MINTEGRATION (www.3d-mintegration.com).

Predictive reliability and prognostics for electronic components: current capabilities and future challenges

Future analysis tools that predict the behavior of electronic components, both during qualification testing and in-service lifetime assessment, will be very important in predicting product reliability and identifying when to undertake maintenance. This paper will discuss some of these techniques and illustrate these with examples. The paper will also discuss future challenges for these techniques.