Hydrocarbon field size distributions: a case study in mixed integer nonlinear programming

Of key importance to oil and gas companies is the size distribution of fields in the areas that they are drilling. Recent arguments suggest that there are many more fields yet to be discovered in mature provinces than had previously been thought because the underlying distribution is monotonic not peaked. According to this view the peaked nature of the distribution for discovered fields reflects not the underlying distribution but the effect of economic truncation. This paper contributes to the discussion by analysing up-to-date exploration and discovery data for two mature provinces using the discovery-process model, based on sampling without replacement and implicitly including economic truncation effects. The maximum likelihood estimation involved generates a high-dimensional mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. A highly efficient solution strategy is tested, exploiting the separable structure and handling the integer constraints by treating the problem as a masked allocation problem in dynamic programming.

Three parallel programming paradigms: Comparisons on an archetypal PDE computation

Three paradigms for distributed-memory parallel computation that free the application programmer from the details of message passing are compared for an archetypal structured scientific computation -- a nonlinear, structured-grid partial differential equation boundary value problem -- using the same algorithm on the same hardware. All of the paradigms -- parallel languages represented by the Portland Group's HPF, (semi-)automated serial-to-parallel source-to-source translation represented by CAP-Tools from the University of Greenwich, and parallel libraries represented by Argonne's PETSc -- are found to be easy to use for this problem class, and all are reasonably effective in exploiting concurrency after a short learning curve. The level of involvement required by the application programmer under any paradigm includes specification of the data partitioning, corresponding to a geometrically simple decomposition of the domain of the PDE. Programming in SPMD style for the PETSc library requires writing only the routines that discretize the PDE and its Jacobian, managing subdomain-to-processor mappings (affine global-to-local index mappings), and interfacing to library solver routines. Programming for HPF requires a complete sequential implementation of the same algorithm as a starting point, introduction of concurrency through subdomain blocking (a task similar to the index mapping), and modest experimentation with rewriting loops to elucidate to the compiler the latent concurrency. Programming with CAPTools involves feeding the same sequential implementation to the CAPTools interactive parallelization system, and guiding the source-to-source code transformation by responding to various queries about quantities knowable only at runtime. Results representative of "the state of the practice" for a scaled sequence of structured grid problems are given on three of the most important contemporary high-performance platforms: the IBM SP, the SGI Origin 2000, and the CRAYY T3E.

Fitting host-parasitoid models with CV² > 1 using hierarchical generalized linear models

The powerful general Pacala-Hassell host-parasitoid model for a patchy environment, which allows host density–dependent heterogeneity (HDD) to be distinguished from between-patch, host density–independent heterogeneity (HDI), is reformulated within the class of the generalized linear model (GLM) family. This improves accessibility through the provision of general software within well–known statistical systems, and allows a rich variety of models to be formulated. Covariates such as age class, host density and abiotic factors may be included easily. For the case where there is no HDI, the formulation is a simple GLM. When there is HDI in addition to HDD, the formulation is a hierarchical generalized linear model. Two forms of HDI model are considered, both with between-patch variability: one has binomial variation within patches and one has extra-binomial, overdispersed variation within patches. Examples are given demonstrating parameter estimation with standard errors, and hypothesis testing. For one example given, the extra-binomial component of the HDI heterogeneity in parasitism is itself shown to be strongly density dependent.

A class of generalized Lévy Laplacians in infinite dimensional calculus

A class of generalized Lévy Laplacians which contain as a special case the ordinary Lévy Laplacian are considered. Topics such as limit average of the second order functional derivative with respect to a certain equally dense (uniformly bounded) orthonormal base, the relations with Kuo’s Fourier transform and other infinite dimensional Laplacians are studied.

Generalized Markov branching processes

A generalized Markov Brnching Process (GMBP) is a Markov branching model where the infinitesimal branching rates are modified with an interaction index. It is proved that there always exists only one GMBP. An associated differential-integral equation is derived. The extinction probalility and the mean and conditional mean extinction times are obtained. Ergodicity and stability of GMBP with resurrection are also considered. Easy checking criteria are established for ordinary and strong ergodicty. The equilibrium distribution is given in an elegant closed form. The probability meaning of our results is clear and thus explained.