A general approach to validating evacuation models with an application to EXODUS

Too often, validation of computer models is considered as a "once and forget" task. In this paper a systematic and graduated approach to evacua tion model validation is suggested.

Two-stage no-wait scheduling models with setup and removal times separated

This paper studies two models of two-stage processing with no-wait in process. The first model is the two-machine flow shop, and the other is the assembly model. For both models we consider the problem of minimizing the makespan, provided that the setup and removal times are separated from the processing times. Each of these scheduling problems is reduced to the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). We show that, in general, the assembly problem is NP-hard in the strong sense. On the other hand, the two-machine flow shop problem reduces to the Gilmore-Gomory TSP, and is solvable in polynomial time. The same holds for the assembly problem under some reasonable assumptions. Using these and existing results, we provide a complete complexity classification of the relevant two-stage no-wait scheduling models.

Optimizing the operation of straight-grate iron-ore pellet induration systems using process models

Mathematical models of straight-grate pellet induration processes have been developed and carefully validated by a number of workers over the past two decades. However, the subsequent exploitation of these models in process optimization is less clear, but obviously requires a sound understanding of how the key factors control the operation. In this article, we show how a thermokinetic model of pellet induration, validated against operating data from one of the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOCC) lines in Canada, can be exploited in process optimization from the perspective of fuel efficiency, production rate, and product quality. Most existing processes are restricted in the options available for process optimization. Here, we review the role of each of the drying (D), preheating (PH), firing (F), after-firing (AF), and cooling (C) phases of the induration process. We then use the induration process model to evaluate whether the first drying zone is best to use on the up- or down-draft gas-flow stream, and we optimize the on-gas temperature profile in the hood of the PH, F, and AF zones, to reduce the burner fuel by at least 10 pct over the long term. Finally, we consider how efficient and flexible the process could be if some of the structural constraints were removed (i.e., addressed at the design stage). The analysis suggests it should be possible to reduce the burner fuel lead by 35 pct, easily increase production by 5+ pct, and improve pellet quality.

Fitting host-parasitoid models with CV² > 1 using hierarchical generalized linear models

The powerful general Pacala-Hassell host-parasitoid model for a patchy environment, which allows host density–dependent heterogeneity (HDD) to be distinguished from between-patch, host density–independent heterogeneity (HDI), is reformulated within the class of the generalized linear model (GLM) family. This improves accessibility through the provision of general software within well–known statistical systems, and allows a rich variety of models to be formulated. Covariates such as age class, host density and abiotic factors may be included easily. For the case where there is no HDI, the formulation is a simple GLM. When there is HDI in addition to HDD, the formulation is a hierarchical generalized linear model. Two forms of HDI model are considered, both with between-patch variability: one has binomial variation within patches and one has extra-binomial, overdispersed variation within patches. Examples are given demonstrating parameter estimation with standard errors, and hypothesis testing. For one example given, the extra-binomial component of the HDI heterogeneity in parasitism is itself shown to be strongly density dependent.

An explicit scheme for coupling temperature and concentration fields in solidification models

A numerical scheme for coupling temperature and concentration fields in a general solidification model is presented. A key feature of this scheme is an explicit time stepping used in solving the governing thermal and solute conservation equations. This explicit approach results in a local point-by-point coupling scheme for the temperature and concentration and avoids the multi-level iteration required by implicit time stepping schemes. The proposed scheme is validated by predicting the concentration field in a benchmark solidification problem. Results compare well with an available similarity solution. The simplicity of the proposed explicit scheme allows for the incorporation of complex microscale models into a general solidification model. This is demonstrated by investigating the role of dendrite coarsening on the concentration field in the solidification benchmark problem.

Low Reynolds number turbulence models for accurate thermal simulations of electronic components

The electronics industry and the problems associated with the cooling of microelectronic equipment are developing rapidly. Thermal engineers now find it necessary to consider the complex area of equipment cooling at some level. This continually growing industry also faces heightened pressure from consumers to provide electronic product miniaturization, which in itself increases the demand for accurate thermal management predictions to assure product reliability. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is considered a powerful and almost essential tool for the design, development and optimization of engineering applications. CFD is now widely used within the electronics packaging design community to thermally characterize the performance of both the electronic component and system environment. This paper discusses CFD results for a large variety of investigated turbulence models. Comparison against experimental data illustrates the predictive accuracy of currently used models and highlights the growing demand for greater mathematical modelling accuracy with regards to thermal characterization. Also a newly formulated low Reynolds number (i.e. transitional) turbulence model is proposed with emphasis on hybrid techniques.

Simulation of ship evacuation and passenger circulation

This paper describes work carried out in the FIRE EXIT research project. FIRE EXIT aims to develop an Evacuation Simulator, capable of addressing issues of mustering, ship motions, fire and abandonment. In achieving these aims, FIRE EXIT took as its starting point the state-of-the-art in ship evacuation simulation (the maritimeEXODUS software), fire simulation (the SMARTFIRE software) and large-scale experimental facilities (the SHEBA facility). It then significantly enhanced these capabilities. A number of new technologies have been developed in achieving these objectives. The innovations include directly linking CFD fire simulation with evacuation and abandonment software and automatic data transfer from concept design software allowing rapid generation of ship simulation models. Software usability was augmented by a module for interpretation of evacuation software output. Enhancements to a ship evacuation testing rig have resulted in a unique facility, capable of providing passenger movement data for realistic evacuation scenarios and large scale tests have provided meaningful data for the evacuation simulation.

Uniqueness criteria for continuous-time Markov chains with general transition structures

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

Semi-Lagrange time integration for PDE models of asian options

Semi-Lagrange time integration is used with the finite difference method to provide accurate stable prices for Asian options, with or without early exercise. These are combined with coordinate transformations for computational efficiency and compared with published results

Simulating the interaction of occupants with signage systems

This paper describes the introduction of chained signage systems into evacuation simulation models. Signage systems are widely used in buildings to provide information for wayfinding, thereby providing exiting information during emergencies and assisting in navigation during normal circulation of pedestrians. Recently a system was developed to introduce simple signs into egress models. The system, known as Visibility Catchment Area or VCA, allowed similated agents to interact with signs which point directly to an exit and signs which are located directly above the exit. However, this approach was not able to represent the more general situation of a sign netwokr within an arbitrarily complex building. In this paper we extend the method to include chained signage systems which provides simulated agents that are unfamiliar with the structure a means by which to navigate to an emergency exit. The model includes the associated navigation behaviours exhibited by occupants that rely on a signage system for navigation including: Searching behaviours, Backtracking behaviours, Lost behaviours and Communication behaviours. The new features are demonstrated through a series of demonstration cases and are shown to produce plausible results.

Multiple attractors of host-parasitoid models with integrated pest management strategies: eradication, persistence and outbreak

Host-parasitoid models including integrated pest management (IPM) interventions with impulsive effects at both fixed and unfixed times were analyzed with regard to host-eradication, host-parasitoid persistence and host-outbreak solutions. The host-eradication periodic solution with fixed moments is globally stable if the host's intrinsic growth rate is less than the summation of the mean host-killing rate and the mean parasitization rate during the impulsive period. Solutions for all three categories can coexist, with switch-like transitions among their attractors showing that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and the numbers of parasitoids released are crucial. Periodic solutions also exist for models with unfixed moments for which the maximum amplitude of the host is less than the economic threshold. The dosages and frequencies of IPM interventions for these solutions are much reduced in comparison with the pest-eradication periodic solution. Our results, which are robust to inclusion of stochastic effects and with a wide range of parameter values, confirm that IPM is more effective than any single control tactic.