A framework for state-based time-series analysis and prediction

Time-series analysis and prediction play an important role in state-based systems that involve dealing with varying situations in terms of states of the world evolving with time. Generally speaking, the world in the discourse persists in a given state until something occurs to it into another state. This paper introduces a framework for prediction and analysis based on time-series of states. It takes a time theory that addresses both points and intervals as primitive time elements as the temporal basis. A state of the world under consideration is defined as a set of time-varying propositions with Boolean truth-values that are dependent on time, including properties, facts, actions, events and processes, etc. A time-series of states is then formalized as a list of states that are temporally ordered one after another. The framework supports explicit expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge. A formal schema for expressing general time-series of states to be incomplete in various ways, while the concept of complete time-series of states is also formally defined. As applications of the formalism in time-series analysis and prediction, we present two illustrating examples.

Material properties, geometry and their effect on the fatigue life of two flip-chip models

This paper describes how modeling technology has been used in providing fatigue life time data of two flip-chip models. Full-scale three-dimensional modeling of flip-chips under cyclic thermal loading has been combined with solder joint stand-off height prediction to analyze the stress and strain conditions in the two models. The Coffin-Manson empirical relationship is employed to predict the fatigue life times of the solder interconnects. In order to help designers in selecting the underfill material and the printed circuit board, the Young's modulus and the coefficient of thermal expansion of the underfill, as well as the thickness of the printed circuit boards are treated as variable parameters. Fatigue life times are therefore calculated over a range of these material and geometry parameters. In this paper we will also describe how the use of micro-via technology may affect fatigue life

Reliability analysis of flip chip designs via computer simulation

A flip chip component is a silicon chip mounted to a substrate with the active area facing the substrate. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the relationship between a number of important material properties and geometric parameters on the thermal-mechanical fatigue reliability of a standard flip chip design and a flip chip design with the use of microvias. Computer modeling has been used to analyze the mechanical conditions of flip chips under cyclic thermal loading where the Coffin-Manson empirical relationship has been used to predict the life time of the solder interconnects. The material properties and geometry parameters that have been investigated are the Young's modulus, the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of the underfill, the out-of-plane CTE (CTEz) of the substrate, the thickness of the substrate, and the standoff height. When these parameters vary, the predicted life-times are calculated and some of the features of the results are explained. By comparing the predicted lifetimes of the two designs and the strain conditions under thermal loading, the local CTE mismatch has been found to be one of most important factors in defining the reliability of flip chips with microvias.

Optimization and finite element analysis for reliable electronic packaging

This paper demonstrates a modeling and design approach that couples computational mechanics techniques with numerical optimisation and statistical models for virtual prototyping and testing in different application areas concerning reliability of eletronic packages. The integrated software modules provide a design engineer in the electronic manufacturing sector with fast design and process solutions by optimizing key parameters and taking into account complexity of certain operational conditions. The integrated modeling framework is obtained by coupling the multi-phsyics finite element framework - PHYSICA - with the numerical optimisation tool - VisualDOC into a fully automated design tool for solutions of electronic packaging problems. Response Surface Modeling Methodolgy and Design of Experiments statistical tools plus numerical optimisaiton techniques are demonstrated as a part of the modeling framework. Two different problems are discussed and solved using the integrated numerical FEM-Optimisation tool. First, an example of thermal management of an electronic package on a board is illustrated. Location of the device is optimized to ensure reduced junction temperature and stress in the die subject to certain cooling air profile and other heat dissipating active components. In the second example thermo-mechanical simulations of solder creep deformations are presented to predict flip-chip reliability and subsequently used to optimise the life-time of solder interconnects under thermal cycling.

Response Surface Modeling and Optimisation for Reliable Electronic Products

The aim of integrating computational mechanics (FEA and CFD) and optimization tools is to speed up dramatically the design process in different application areas concerning reliability in electronic packaging. Design engineers in the electronics manufacturing sector may use these tools to predict key design parameters and configurations (i.e. material properties, product dimensions, design at PCB level. etc) that will guarantee the required product performance. In this paper a modeling strategy coupling computational mechanics techniques with numerical optimization is presented and demonstrated with two problems. The integrated modeling framework is obtained by coupling the multi-physics analysis tool PHYSICA - with the numerical optimization package - Visua/DOC into a fuJly automated design tool for applications in electronic packaging. Thermo-mechanical simulations of solder creep deformations are presented to predict flip-chip reliability and life-time under thermal cycling. Also a thermal management design based on multi-physics analysis with coupled thermal-flow-stress modeling is discussed. The Response Surface Modeling Approach in conjunction with Design of Experiments statistical tools is demonstrated and used subsequently by the numerical optimization techniques as a part of this modeling framework. Predictions for reliable electronic assemblies are achieved in an efficient and systematic manner.

Lifetime assessment of electronic components for high reliability aerospace applications

This paper details a modelling approach for assessing the in-service (field) reliability and thermal fatigue life-time of electronic package interconnects for components used in the assembly of an aerospace system. The Finite Element slice model of a Plastic Ball Grid Array (PBGA) package and suitable energy based damage models for crack length predictions are used in this study. Thermal fatigue damage induced in tin-lead solder joints are investigated by simulating the crack growth process under a set of prescribed field temperature profiles that cover the period of operational life. The overall crack length in the solder joint for all different thermal profiles and number of cycles for each profile is predicted using a superposition technique. The effect of using an underfill is also presented. A procedure for verifying the field lifetime predictions for the electronic package by using reliability assessment under Accelerated Thermal Cycle (ATC) testing is also briefly outlined.

Numerical simulation of incompressible flow problems using an unstructured staggered mesh method

A number of two dimensional staggered unstructured discretisation schemes for the solution of fluid flow and heat transfer problems have been developed. All schemes store and solve velocity vector components at cell faces with scalar variables solved at cell centres. The velocity is resolved into face-normal and face-parallel components and the various schemes investigated differ in the treatment of the parallel component. Steady-state and time-dependent fluid flow and thermal energy equations are solved with the well known pressure correction scheme, SIMPLE, employed to couple continuity and momentum. The numerical methods developed are tested on well known benchmark cases: the Lid-Driven Cavity, Natural Convection in a Cavity and Melting of Gallium in a rectangular domain. The results obtained are shown to be comparable to benchmark, but with accuracy dependent on scheme selection.

Reliability analysis of SiP structures

This presentation discusses latest developments in SiP technology and the challenges for design in terms of manufacture and reliability. It presents results from a UK government funded project that aims to develop modelling techniques that will assess the thermo-mechanical reliability of SiP structures such as (i) stacked die, (ii) side-by-side dies and (iii) embedded die. Finite element analysis coupled with numerical optimisation and uncertainty analysis is used is used to model the reliability of a particular package design. In particular, the damage (energy density) in the lead free solder interconnects under accelerated temperature cycling is predicted and used to observe the fatigue life-time. Warpage of the structure is also investigated

Computational approach for reliable and robust system-in-package design

A computational modelling approach integrated with optimisation and statistical methods that can aid the development of reliable and robust electronic packages and systems is presented. The design for reliability methodology is demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure. In this study the focus is on the procedure for representing the uncertainties in the package design parameters, their impact on reliability and robustness of the package design and how these can be included in the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of thermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is conducted using non-linear transient finite element simulations. Key system responses of interest, the fatigue life-time of the lead-free solder interconnects and warpage of the package, are predicted and used subsequently for design purposes. The design tasks are to identify the optimal SiP designs by varying several package input parameters so that the reliability and the robustness of the package are improved and in the same time specified performance criteria are also satisfied

Reliability based design optimisation for system-in-package

This paper discusses a reliability based optimisation modelling approach demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure integrated by stacking dies one upon the other. In this investigation the focus is on the strategy for handling the uncertainties in the package design inputs and their implementation into the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of fhermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is utilised to predict the fatigue life-time of the lead-free board level solder interconnects and warpage of the package under thermal cycling. The SiP characterisation is obtained through the exploitation of Reduced Order Models (ROM) constructed using high fidelity analysis and Design of Experiments (DoE) methods. The design task is to identify the optimal SiP design specification by varying several package input parameters so that a specified target reliability of the solder joints is achieved and in the same time design requirements and package performance criteria are met

A prognostic assessment method for power electronics modules

This paper describes a prognostic method which combines the physics of failure models with probability reasoning algorithm. The measured real time data (temperature vs. time) was used as the loading profile for the PoF simulations. The response surface equation of the accumulated plastic strain in the solder interconnect in terms of two variables (average temperature, and temperature amplitude) was constructed. This response surface equation was incorporated into the lifetime model of solder interconnect, and therefore the remaining life time of the solder component under current loading condition was predicted. The predictions from PoF models were also used to calculate the conditional probability table for a Bayesian Network, which was used to take into account of the impacts of the health observations of each product in lifetime prediction. The prognostic prediction in the end was expressed as the probability for the product to survive the expected future usage. As a demonstration, this method was applied to an IGBT power module used for aircraft applications.

DFT calculations of the structures and vibrational spectra of the [Fe(bpy)(3)](2+) and [Ru(bpy)(3)](2+) complexes

Structures of the [M(bpy)(3)](2+) complexes (M = Fe and Ru) have been calculated at the B3-LYP/DZVP level. IR and Raman spectra were calculated using the optimised geometries, employing a scaled quantum chemical force field, and compared with an earlier normal coordinate analysis of [Ru(bpy)(3) ](2+) which was based upon experimental data alone, and the use of a simplified model. The results of the calculations provide a highly satisfactory fit to the experimental data and the normal coordinate analyses, in terms of potential energy distributions, allow a detailed understanding of the vibrational spectra of both complexes. Evidence is presented for Jahn-Teller distortion in the E-1 MLCT excited state. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal management using relative time in knowledge-based process control

In this paper, a knowledge-based approach is proposed for the management of temporal information in process control. A common-sense theory of temporal constraints over processes/events, allowing relative temporal knowledge, is employed here as the temporal basis for the system. This theory supports duration reasoning and consistency checking, and accepts relative temporal knowledge which is in a form normally used by human operators. An architecture for process control is proposed which centres on an historical database consisting of events and processes, together with the qualitative temporal relationships between their occurrences. The dynamics of the system is expressed by means of three types of rule: database updating rules, process control rules, and data deletion rules. An example is provided in the form of a life scheduler, to illustrate the database and the rule sets. The example demonstrates the transitions of the database over time, and identifies the procedure in terms of a state transition model for the application. The dividing instant problem for logical inference is discussed with reference to this process control example, and it is shown how the temporal theory employed can be used to deal with the problem.

Markovian bulk-arriving queues with state-dependent control at idle time

This paper considers a Markovian bulk-arriving queue modified to allow both mass arrivals when the queue is idle and mass departures which allow for the possibility of removing the entire workload. Properties of queues which terminate when the server becomes idle are developed first, since these play a key role in later developments. Results for the case of mass arrivals, but no mass annihilation, are then constructed with specific attention being paid to recurrence properties, equilibrium queue-size structure, and waiting-time distribution. A closed-form expression for the expected queue size and its Laplace transform are also established. All of these results are then generalised to allow for the removal of the entire workload, with closed-form expressions being developed for the equilibrium size and waiting-time distributions.

An ontological characterization of time-series and state-sequences for data mining

Time-series and sequences are important patterns in data mining. Based on an ontology of time-elements, this paper presents a formal characterization of time-series and state-sequences, where a state denotes a collection of data whose validation is dependent on time. While a time-series is formalized as a vector of time-elements temporally ordered one after another, a state-sequence is denoted as a list of states correspondingly ordered by a time-series. In general, a time-series and a state-sequence can be incomplete in various ways. This leads to the distinction between complete and incomplete time-series, and between complete and incomplete state-sequences, which allows the expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge in data mining.