Hazard and risk assessment from Hurricane Ivan (2004) in Grenada using Geographical Information Systems and remote sensing

Hurricanes are destructive storms with strong winds, intense storm surges, and heavy rainfall. The resulting impact from a hurricane can include structural damage to buildings and infrastructure, flooding, and ultimately loss of human life. This paper seeks to identify the impact of Hurricane Ivan on the aected population of Grenada, one of the Caribbean islands. Hurricane Ivan made landfall on 7th September 2004 and resulted in 80% of the population being adversely aected. The methods that were used to model these impacts involved performing hazard and risk assessments using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Spatial analyses were used to create a hazard and a risk map. Hazards were identied initially as those caused by storm surges, severe winds speeds, and flooding events related to Hurricane Ivan. These estimated hazards were then used to create a risk map. An innovative approach was adopted, including the use of hillshading to assess the damage caused by high wind speeds. This paper explains in detail the methodology used and the results produced.

The benefits of a health impact assessment in relation to fuel poverty: assessing Luton's affordable warmth strategy and the need for a national strategy

The links between fuel poverty and poor health are well documented, yet there is no statutory requirement on local authorities to develop fuel poverty strategies, which tend to be patchy nationally and differ substantially in quality. Fuel poverty starts from the perspective of income, even though interventions can improve health. The current public health agenda calls for more partnership-based, cost-effective strategies based on sound evidence. Fuel poverty represents a key area where there is currently little local evidence quantifying and qualifying health gain arising from strategic interventions. As a result, this initial study sought to apply the principles of a health impact assessment to Luton’s Affordable Warmth Strategy, exploring the potential to identify health impact arising – as a baseline for future research – in the context of the public health agenda. A national strategy would help ensure the promotion of targeted fuel poverty strategies.

Models and tools for an integrated European environmental management and decision support system, (IEEMDSS)

This work proceeds from the assumption that a European environmental information and communication system (EEICS) is already established. In the context of primary users (land-use planners, conservationists, and environmental researchers) we ask what use may be made of the EEICS for building models and tools which is of use in building decision support systems for the land-use planner. The complex task facing the next generation of environmental and forest modellers is described, and a range of relevant modelling approaches are reviewed. These include visualization and GIS; statistical tabulation and database SQL, MDA and OLAP methods. The major problem of noncomparability of the definitions and measures of forest area and timber volume is introduced and the possibility of a model-based solution is considered. The possibility of using an ambitious and challenging biogeochemical modelling approach to understanding and managing European forests sustainably is discussed. It is emphasised that all modern methodological disciplines must be brought to bear, and a heuristic hybrid modelling approach should be used so as to ensure that the benefits of practical empirical modelling approaches are utilised in addition to the scientifically well-founded and holistic ecosystem and environmental modelling. The data and information system required is likely to end up as a grid-based-framework because of the heavy use of computationally intensive model-based facilities.

Predictive reliability, prognostics and risk assessment for power modules

This paper describes a framework that is being developed for the prediction and analysis of electronics power module reliability both for qualification testing and in-service lifetime prediction. Physics of failure (PoF) reliability methodology using multi-physics high-fidelity and reduced order computer modelling, as well as numerical optimization techniques, are integrated in a dedicated computer modelling environment to meet the needs of the power module designers and manufacturers as well as end-users for both design and maintenance purposes. An example of lifetime prediction for a power module solder interconnect structure is described. Another example is the lifetime prediction of a power module for a railway traction control application. Also in the paper a combined physics of failure and data trending prognostic methodology for the health monitoring of power modules is discussed.

Environmental science and sustainability: some critical thoughts

Environmental science is often described as an interdisciplinary subject, but one firmly grounded in positivist science. Less well recognized is the idea that interdisciplinarity actually challenges fundamental conceptions concerning how reality is understood from an orthodox science perspective. Drawing on recent non-dualism (or post-natural) literature, it is suggested in this paper that there is a need for greater awareness and debate concerning the underlying challenges that ideas of interdisciplinarity and holism present for environmental science. It is argued by aligning environmental science more strongly with non-dualistic traditions (spanning the sciences, arts and religion), fundamental issues are raised concerning how reality is understood and what constitutes valid research methodologies. The concept of intrinsic value is used as one example of the way non-dualistic theory can open up new territories for exploring reality.