The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

Beneficial entitlement: no longer doing justice?

Discusses the House of Lords ruling in Stack v Dowden on the size of each legal owner's share of the equity in the family home in the event of the relationship breakdown of an unmarried couple. Considers whether the parties intended their beneficial interests to be different to their legal interests in the property. Comments on the court's primary concern of establishing, from the parties' conduct, their intention as regards beneficial ownership. Looks at whether indirect financial contributions give rise to a beneficial interest under a constructive trust and notes the relevance of the doctrine of proprietary estoppel.

Subrogation and non-payment of rent

Explains the equitable doctrine of subrogation as it applies to tenants, assignees and landlords. Outlines the basic principle of subrogation and examines how the principle affects the legal position of the original tenant, the tenant's assignee, the tenant's surety and the original landlord.

Constructive thinking

Discusses the House of Lords ruling in Cobbe v Yeoman's Row Management Ltd on whether the doctrine of constructive trust, as an alternative to proprietary estoppel, could be invoked by a property developer under the Law of Property (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 1989 s.2(5) where an agreement for the acquisition of an interest in land failed to comply with s.2(1), but where the developer had incurred expenditure obtaining planning permission to develop the property. Reflects on whether there are circumstances in which the courts will find a constructive trust in order to avoid the effects of s.2(1).

Duty to mitigate in leasehold law

Discusses by reference to case law, including Commonwealth authorities, the rights and duties of landlords where demised premises are abandoned by a tenant who has defaulted on the rent, including the remedies available to the landlord, the limitations on his right to sue for loss of rent due between abandonment and expiration of the term, and the applicability of the contractual doctrine of mitigation of damages in leasehold law. Examines the Court of Appeal decision in Reichman v Beveridge on the duty of mitigate loss in an action merely seeking recovery of rent as it accrues due.

Estoppel and the interests of the prospective beneficiary

Reviews case law concerning proprietary and testamentary estoppel. Examines two cases in which an elderly person made certain comments and encouraged an understanding between themselves and the claimants, that on death properties would be left to them, but where the requisite legal formalities were not undertaken. Illustrates the contrasting courts' approach, once estoppel has been established, in finding the appropriate remedy to satisfy and considers the challenges faced by the courts in differentiating between constructive trust and proprietary estoppel. [From Legal Journals Index]

The promised land

Examines the House of Lords ruling in Thorner v Curtis on whether the claimant could rely on proprietary estoppel against the estate of the deceased, who had died intestate, based on an assurance given by the deceased that the claimant would inherit the deceased's farm. Reviews case law on proprietary estoppel and testamentary promises, and considers the possible application of constructive trust doctrine in similar cases.

Casual link and consensual arrangements in estoppel

Analyses the Court of Appeal decision in Powell v Benney on whether in a claim of proprietary estoppel the expectation of a couple that they would receive two properties owned, and promised to them, by a deceased friend was out of proportion to the detriment suffered by them in looking after the friend and improving his properties for their own use. Considers: (1) the approach to be taken to the requirement of a causal link between the assurance given and the conduct constituting the detriment relied on; and (2) consensual arrangements and estoppel equity.

Oral agreements: estoppel, constructive trusts and restitution

Analyses the House of Lords judgment in Cobbe v Yeoman's Row Management Ltd in relation to claims by the prospective purchaser under an oral agreement for sale of a block of flats based on proprietary estoppel, a constructive trust and common law restitution brought against the owner of the property who sought to resile from the agreement after the purchaser had, at considerable expense, obtained planning permission to redevelop the property in reliance on assurances given by the owner that if permission was granted the sale would be honoured.