Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

Refueling in nuclear engineering: the FUELCON project

Over a time span of almost a decade, the FUELCON project in nuclear engineering has led to a fully functional expert system and spawned sequel projects. Its task is in-core fuel management, also called `refueling', i.e., good fuel-allocation for reloading the core of a given nuclear reactor, for a given operation cycle. The task is crucial for keeping down operation costs at nuclear power plants. Fuel comes in different types and is positioned in a grid representing the core of a reactor. The tool is useful for practitioners but also helps the expert in the domain to test his or her rules of thumb and to discover new ones.

Computational modelling of multi-physics processes on high performance parallel computer systems

The demands of the process of engineering design, particularly for structural integrity, have exploited computational modelling techniques and software tools for decades. Frequently, the shape of structural components or assemblies is determined to optimise the flow distribution or heat transfer characteristics, and to ensure that the structural performance in service is adequate. From the perspective of computational modelling these activities are typically separated into: • fluid flow and the associated heat transfer analysis (possibly with chemical reactions), based upon Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technology • structural analysis again possibly with heat transfer, based upon finite element analysis (FEA) techniques.

Reliability analysis of flip chip designs via computer simulation

A flip chip component is a silicon chip mounted to a substrate with the active area facing the substrate. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the relationship between a number of important material properties and geometric parameters on the thermal-mechanical fatigue reliability of a standard flip chip design and a flip chip design with the use of microvias. Computer modeling has been used to analyze the mechanical conditions of flip chips under cyclic thermal loading where the Coffin-Manson empirical relationship has been used to predict the life time of the solder interconnects. The material properties and geometry parameters that have been investigated are the Young's modulus, the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of the underfill, the out-of-plane CTE (CTEz) of the substrate, the thickness of the substrate, and the standoff height. When these parameters vary, the predicted life-times are calculated and some of the features of the results are explained. By comparing the predicted lifetimes of the two designs and the strain conditions under thermal loading, the local CTE mismatch has been found to be one of most important factors in defining the reliability of flip chips with microvias.

Safer by design: using computer simulation to predict the evacuation performance of passenger ships

When designing a new passenger ship or modifiying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design is safe from an evacuation point of view? In the building and aviation industries, computer based evacuation models are being used to tackle similar issues. In these industries, the traditonal restrictive prescriptive approach to design is making way for performance based design methodologies using risk assessment and computer simulation. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models off the promise to quickly and efficiently bring these considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". This paper describes the development of evacuation models with applications to passenger ships and further discusses issues concerning data requirements and validation.

The integration of an intelligent knowledge-based system into engineering software using the blackboard structure

Over recent years there has been an increase in the use of generic Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software packages spread across various application fields. This has created the need for the integration of expertise into CFD software. Expertise can be integrated into CFD software in the form of an Intelligent Knowledge-Based System (IKBS). The advantages of integrating intelligence into generic engineering software are discussed with a special view to software engineering considerations. The software modelling cycle of a typical engineering problem is identified and the respective expertise and user control needed for each modelling phase is shown. The requirements of an IKBS for CFD software are discussed and compared to current practice. The blackboard software architecture is presented. This is shown to be appropriate for the integration of an IKBS into an engineering software package. This is demonstrated through the presentation of the prototype CFD software package FLOWES.

Utilising computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for the modelling of granular material in large-scale engineering processes

In this paper, the framework is described for the modelling of granular material by employing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). This is achieved through the use and implementation in the continuum theory of constitutive relations, which are derived in a granular dynamics framework and parametrise particle interactions that occur at the micro-scale level. The simulation of a process often met in bulk solids handling industrial plants involving granular matter, (i.e. filling of a flat-bottomed bin with a binary material mixture through pneumatic conveying-emptying of the bin in core flow mode-pneumatic conveying of the material coming out of a the bin) is presented. The results of the presented simulation demonstrate the capability of the numerical model to represent successfully key granular processes (i.e. segregation/degradation), the prediction of which is of great importance in the process engineering industry.

Fire safety engineering and ship design using advanced fire and evacuation simulation

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the number of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033

Using computer models to identify optimal conditions for flip-chip assembly and reliability

Flip-chip assembly, developed in the early 1960s, is now being positioned as a key joining technology to achieve high-density mounting of electronic components on to printed circuit boards for high-volume, low-cost products. Computer models are now being used early within the product design stage to ensure that optimal process conditions are used. These models capture the governing physics taking place during the assembly process and they can also predict relevant defects that may occur. Describes the application of computational modelling techniques that have the ability to predict a range of interacting physical phenomena associated with the manufacturing process. For example, in the flip-chip assembly process we have solder paste deposition, solder joint shape formation, heat transfer, solidification and thermal stress. Illustrates the application of modelling technology being used as part of a larger UK study aiming to establish a process route for high-volume, low-cost, sub-100-micron pitch flip-chip assembly.

Computer modelling of the reliability of flip chips with metal column bumping

Recently, research has been carried out to test a novel bumping method which omits the under bump metallurgy forming process by bonding copper columns directly onto the Al pads of the silicon dies. This bumping method could be adopted to simplify the flip chip manufacturing process, increase the productivity and achieve a higher I/O count. This paper describes an investigation of the solder joint reliability of flip-chips based on this new bumping process. Computer modelling methods are used to predict the shape of solder joints and response of flip chips to thermal cyclic loading. The accumulated plastic strain energy at the comer solder joints is used as the damage indicator. Models with a range of design parameters have been compared for their reliability. The parameters that have been investigated are the copper column height, radius and solder volume. The ranking of the relative importance of these parameters is given. For most of the results presented in the paper, the solder material has been assumed to be the lead-free 96.5Sn3.5Ag alloy but some results for 60Sn40Pb solder joints have also been presented.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

Engineering emergence for cluster configuration

Distributed applications are being deployed on ever-increasing scale and with ever-increasing functionality. Due to the accompanying increase in behavioural complexity, self-management abilities, such as self-healing, have become core requirements. A key challenge is the smooth embedding of such functionality into our systems. Natural distributed systems such as ant colonies have evolved highly efficient behaviour. These emergent systems achieve high scalability through the use of low complexity communication strategies and are highly robust through large-scale replication of simple, anonymous entities. Ways to engineer this fundamentally non-deterministic behaviour for use in distributed applications are being explored. An emergent, dynamic, cluster management scheme, which forms part of a hierarchical resource management architecture, is presented. Natural biological systems, which embed self-healing behaviour at several levels, have influenced the architecture. The resulting system is a simple, lightweight and highly robust platform on which cluster-based autonomic applications can be deployed.

Computer modeling of a micro-manufactured one-turn inductor

The results of a finite element computer modelling analysis of a micro-manufactured one-turn magnetic inductor using the software package ANSYS 10.0 are presented. The inductor is designed for a DC-DC converter used in microelectronic devices. It consists of a copper conductor with a rectangular cross-section plated with an insulation layer and a layer of magnetic core. The analysis has focused on the effects of the frequency and the air gaps on the on the inductance values and the Joule losses in the core and conductor. It has been found that an inductor with small multiple air gaps has lower losses than an inductor with a single larger gap

Investigating the impact of occupant response time on computer simulations of the WTC North Tower evacuation

This work explores the impact of response time distributions on high-rise building evacuation. The analysis utilises response times extracted from printed accounts and interviews of evacuees from the WTC North Tower evacuation of 11 September 2001. Evacuation simulations produced using these “real” response time distributions are compared with simulations produced using instant and engineering response time distributions. Results suggest that while typical engineering approximations to the response time distribution may produce reasonable evacuation times for up to 90% of the building population, using this approach may underestimate total evacuation times by as much as 61%. These observations are applicable to situations involving large high-rise buildings in which travel times are generally expected to be greater than response times