Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Intrinsic measure of diversity gains in generalised distributed antenna systems with cooperative users

The diversity gains achievable in the generalised distributed antenna system with cooperative users (GDAS-CU) are considered. A GDAS-CU is comprised of M largely separated access points (APs) at one side of the link, and N geographically closed user terminals (UTs) at the other side. The UTs are collaborating together to enhance the system performance, where an idealised message sharing among the UTs is assumed. First, geometry-based network models are proposed to describe the topology of a GDAS-CU. The mean cross-correlation coefficients of signals received from non-collocated APs and UTs are calculated based on the network topology and the correlation models derived from the empirical data. The analysis is also extendable to more general scenarios where the APs are placed in a clustered form due to the constraints of street layout or building structure. Subsequently, a generalised signal attenuation model derived from several stochastic ray-tracing-based pathloss models is applied to describe the power-decaying pattern in urban built-up areas, where the GDAS-CU may be deployed. Armed with the cross-correlation and pathloss model preliminaries, an intrinsic measure of cooperative diversity obtainable from a GDAS-CU is then derived, which is the number of independent fading channels that can be averaged over to detect symbols. The proposed analytical framework would provide critical insight into the degree of possible performance improvement when combining multiple copies of the received signal in such systems.

Elif Şafak in conversation with Alev Adil: What do women novelists really want?

Two prolific novelists talked about their work, the work they admire and the role of women in the European literary scene.