AASK - Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge: A database of human experience in evacuation, derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data in order to (a) identify the key processes and factors associated with evacuation, (b) quantify variables and parameters associated with the identified factors/processes and finally (c) validate the models. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise from three major data sources in order to address these issues. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from one of these sources - aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (aircraft accident statistics and knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK comprises four component sub-databases. These consist of the ACCIDENT (crash details), FLIGHT ATTENDANT (observations and actions of the flight attendants), FATALS (details concerning passenger fatalities) and PAX (observations and accounts from individual passengers) databases. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 4 April 1977 to 6 August 1995, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. In addition to aiding the development of aircraft evacuation models, AASK is also being used to challenge some of the myths which proliferate in the aviation safety industry such as, passenger exit selection during evacuation, nature and frequency of seat jumping, speed of passenger response and group dynamics. AASK can also be used to aid in the development of a more comprehensive approach to conducting post accident interviews, and will eventually be used to store the data directly.

An aircraft accident database of human experience in evacuation derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However, such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise in order to address this issue. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 04/04/77 to 06/08/95, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The AASK database V4.0: aircraft accident statistics and knowledge. A database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents

This paper describes the AASK database. The AASK database is unique as it is a record of human behaviour during survivable aviation accidents. The AASK database is compiled from interview data compiled by agencies such as the NTSB and the AAIB. The database can be found on the website http://fseg.gre.ac.uk

Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database: analyzing passenger behavior in aviation accidents

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of passenger accounts from survivable aviation accidents/incidents compiled from interview data collected by agencies such as the US NTSB. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It also plays a significant role in the development of the airEXODUS aircraft evacuation model, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes the latest version of the database (Version 4.0) and includes some analysis of passenger behavior during actual accidents/incidents.

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

CAA paper 2006/01: a database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents: the aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database (AASK)

This report concerns the development of the AASK V4.0 database (CAA Project 560/SRG/R+AD). AASK is the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database, which is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The AASK database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. With support from the UK CAA (Project 277/SRG/R&AD), AASK V3.0 was developed. This was an on-line prototype system available over the internet to selected users and included a significantly increased number of passenger accounts compared with earlier versions, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information and improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility. The most recently completed AASK project (Project 560/SRG/R+AD) involved four main components: a) analysis of the data collected in V3.0; b) continued collection and entry of data into AASK; c) maintenance and functional development of the AASK database; and d) user feedback survey. All four components have been pursued and completed in this two-year project. The current version developed in the last year of the project is referred to as AASK V4.0. This report provides summaries of the work done and the results obtained in relation to the project deliverables.

Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

Safer by design: using computer simulation to predict the evacuation performance of passenger ships

When designing a new passenger ship or modifiying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design is safe from an evacuation point of view? In the building and aviation industries, computer based evacuation models are being used to tackle similar issues. In these industries, the traditonal restrictive prescriptive approach to design is making way for performance based design methodologies using risk assessment and computer simulation. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models off the promise to quickly and efficiently bring these considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". This paper describes the development of evacuation models with applications to passenger ships and further discusses issues concerning data requirements and validation.

An analysis of human behaviour during aircraft evacuation situations using the AASK v3.0 database

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes recent developments with the database leading to the development of AASK v3.0. These include significantly increasing the number of passenger accounts in the database, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information, improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility and improved ease of access to the database via the internet. In addition, the paper demonstrates the use of the database by investigating a number of important issues associated with aircraft evacuation. These include issues associated with social bonding and evacuation, the relationship between the number of crew and evacuation efficiency, frequency of exit/slide failures in accidents and exploring possible relationships between seating location and chances of survival. Finally, the passenger behavioural trends described in analysis undertaken with the earlier database are confirmed with the wider data set.

The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to aircraft safety

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing full-scale certification trials are high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools are essential. Furthermore, evacuation models provide insight into the evacuation process that is impossible to derive from a single certification trial. The airEXODUS evacuation model has been under development since 1989 with support from the UK CAA and the aviation industry. In addition to describing the capabilities of the airEXODUS evacuation model, this paper describes the findings of a recent CAA project aimed at investigating model accuracy in predicting past certification trials. Furthermore, airEXODUS is used to examine issues related to the Blended Wing Body (BWB) and Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA). These radical new aircraft concepts pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. BWB concepts involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisle be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we discuss various issues evacuation related issues associated VLTA and BWB aircraft and demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigage these issues through examination of aisle/exit configurations for BWB cabin layouts.

The AASK Database V3.0: a database of human experience during aircraft evacuation incidents

This paper describes recent developments with the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database. The AASK database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents developed by the Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich with support from the UK CAA. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. Access to the latest version of the database (AASK V3.0) is available over the Internet. AASK consists of information derived from both passenger and cabin crew interviews, information concerning fatalities and basic accident details. Also provided with AASK is the Seat Plan Viewer that graphically displays the starting locations of all the passengers - both survivors and fatalities - as well as the exits used by the survivors. Data entered into the AASK database is extracted from the transcripts supplied by the National Transportation Safety Board in the US and the Air Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. The quality and quantity of the data was very variable ranging from short summary reports of the accidents to boxes of individual accounts from passengers, crew and investigators. Data imported into AASK V3.0 includes information from 55 accidents and individual accounts from 1295 passengers and 110 crew.

Self-adaptability and man-in-the-loop: a dilemma in autonomic computing systems

This paper addresses some controversial issues relating to two main questions. Firstly, we discuss 'man-in-the loop' issues in SAACS. Some people advocate this must always be so that man's decisions can override autonomic components. In this case, the system has two subsystems - man and machine. Can we, however, have a fully autonomic machine - with no man in sight; even for short periods of time? What kinds of systems require man to always be in the loop? What is the optimum balance in self-to-human control? How do we determine the optimum? How far can we go in describing self-behaviour? How does a SAACS system handle unexpected behaviour? Secondly, what are the challenges/obstacles in testing SAACS in the context of self/human dilemma? Are there any lesson to be learned from other programmes e.g. Star-wars, aviation and space explorations? What role human factors and behavioural models play whilst in interacting with SAACS?.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

Report on the Testing and Systematic Evaluation of the airEXODUS Aircraft Evacuation Model

This report covers the testing and evaluation of the airEXODUS evacuation model. airEXODUS has been developed for evacuation certification testing, crew training and aircraft design. The report demonstrates the effectiveness of the model.