Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Models of advertising standardisation and adaptation: it's time to move the debate forward

Advertising standardisation versus adaptation has been discussed in some detail in the marketing literature. Despite previous attempts, there is still no widely-used decision-making model available that has been accepted by marketing practitioners and academics. This paper examines the development of this important area by reviewing six prominent models in the advertising standardisation/adaptation literature. It shows why there has been a lack of development in the current literature and why it is crucial to address this problem. Important areas for future research are suggested in order to find a solution