Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

An analysis of human behaviour during aircraft evacuation situations using the AASK v3.0 database

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes recent developments with the database leading to the development of AASK v3.0. These include significantly increasing the number of passenger accounts in the database, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information, improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility and improved ease of access to the database via the internet. In addition, the paper demonstrates the use of the database by investigating a number of important issues associated with aircraft evacuation. These include issues associated with social bonding and evacuation, the relationship between the number of crew and evacuation efficiency, frequency of exit/slide failures in accidents and exploring possible relationships between seating location and chances of survival. Finally, the passenger behavioural trends described in analysis undertaken with the earlier database are confirmed with the wider data set.

Analysis of the structural characteristics of an intermediate rail vehicle and their effect on vehicle crash performance

In the current paper, the authors present an analysis of the structural characteristics of an intermediate rail vehicle and their effects on crash performance of the vehicle. Theirs is a simulation based analysis involving four stages. First, the crashworthiness of the vehicle is assessed by simulating an impact of the vehicle with a rigid wall. Second, the structural characteristics of the vehicle are analysed based on the structural behaviour during this impact and then the structure is modified. Third, the modified vehicle is tested again in the same impact scenario with a rigid wall. Finally, the modified vehicle is subjected to a modelled head-on impact which mirrors the real-life impact interface between two intermediate vehicles in a train impact. The emphasis of the current study is on the structural characteristics of the intermediate vehicle and the differences compared to an impact of a leading vehicle. The study shows that, similar to a leading vehicle, bending, or jackknifing is a main form of failure in this conventionally designed intermediate vehicle. It has also been found that the location of the door openings creates a major difference in the behaviour of an intermediate vehicle. It causes instability of the vehicle in the door area and leads to high stresses at the joint of the end beam with the solebar and shear stresses at the joint of the inner pillar with the cantrail. Apart from this, the shapes of the vehicle ends and impact interfaces are also different and have an effect on the crash performance of the vehicles. The simulation results allow the identification of the structural characteristics and show the effectiveness of relevant modifications. The conclusions have general relevance for the crashworthiness of rail vehicle design