The role of evacuation and fire modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

The numerical simulation of the noncharring pyrolysis process and fire development within a compartment

A pyrolysis model for noncharring solid fuels is presented in this paper. Model predictions are compared with experimental data for the mass loss rates of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and very good agreement is achieved. Using a three-dimensional CFD environment, the pyrolysis model is then coupled with a gas-phase combustion model and a thermal radiation model to simulate fire development within a small compartment. The numerical predictions produced by this coupled model are found to be in very good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, numerical predictions of the relationship between the air entrained into the fire compartment and the ventilation factor produce a characteristic post-flashover linear correlation with constant of proportionality 0.38 kg/sm5=2. The simulation results also suggest that the model is capable of predicting the onset of "flashover" and "post-flashover" type behaviour within the fire compartment.

Assessment of the impact of computed and measured fire environments on building evacuation using bench and real scale test data

This study investigates the use of computer modelled versus directly experimentally determined fire hazard data for assessing survivability within buildings using evacuation models incorporating Fractionally Effective Dose (FED) models. The objective is to establish a link between effluent toxicity, measured using a variety of small and large scale tests, and building evacuation. For the scenarios under consideration, fire simulation is typically used to determine the time non-survivable conditions develop within the enclosure, for example, when smoke or toxic effluent falls below a critical height which is deemed detrimental to evacuation or when the radiative fluxes reach a critical value leading to the onset of flashover. The evacuation calculation would the be used to determine whether people within the structure could evacuate before these critical conditions develop.

Developing “middle leaders” in the public services? The realities of management and leadership development for public managers

Purpose – This paper aims to assess the actual contribution to organisational change of management and leadership development (MLD) activity for middle managers (MMs) in public service organisations (PSOs). Design/methodology/approach – Using the case study approach, the paper compares the content and outcomes of management and leadership training interventions for MMs in two large PSOs. The organisations, a fire brigade and a train operating company, are leaders in their sectors with respect to management development and “modernisation” of their services. Findings – The paper demonstrates how, in one case, MM development was largely an exercise in regulatory compliance, with little effect on individual MMs' performance or organisational outcomes. The second case demonstrates how MMs were effectively trained to enforce specific human resource policies which contributed to the successful implementation of top-down strategy yet paid little attention to the potential leadership role of MMs. Research limitations/implications – The paper highlights the need for further contextualised research at organisational level into the outcomes of MLD, especially in terms of different public service contexts. Practical implications – The paper demonstrates the dangers of designing and implementing development programmes without sufficient regard to professional practice and the realities of managerial discretion in PSOs. Originality/value – The paper provides an in-depth and contextualised insight into the conditions for success and failure in management development interventions in PSOs.