Safer by design: simulating fire and escape at sea

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of fire and fire suppression systems and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033. The fire simulations include the action of a water mist system.

Forward and inverse transport of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants affecting the region bordering the English Channel

The ATTMA "Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere" project investigates the transportation and dispersion of air pollutants across the English Channel, in collaboration with local authorities and other Universities in Southern England and Northern France. The research is concerned with both forward and inverse (receptor based) tracking. Two alternative dispersion simulation methods are used: (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) Eulerian Finite Volume type models. This paper is concerned with part (a), the simulations based on LPD models. Two widely applied LPD models are used and compared. Since in many observed episodes the source of pollution is traced outside the region of interest, long range, trans-continental transport is also investigated.

Airborne transport of Saharan dust to the Mediterranean and to the Atlantic

The Sahara desert is a significant source of particulate pollution not only to the Mediterranean region, but also to the Atlantic and beyond. In this paper, PM 10 exceedences recorded in the UK and the island of Crete are studied and their source investigated, using Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) methods. Forward and inverse simulations identify Saharan dust storms as the primary source of these episodes. The methodology used allows comparison between this primary source and other possible candidates, for example large forest fires or volcanic eruptions. Two LPD models are used in the simulations, namely the open source code FLEXPART and the proprietary code HYSPLIT. Driven by the same meteorological fields (the ECMWF MARS archive and the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale model, known as MM5) the codes produce similar, but not identical predictions. This inter-model comparison enables a critical assessment of the physical modelling assumptions employed in each code, plus the influence of boundary conditions and solution grid density. The outputs, in the form of particle concentrations evolving in time, are compared against satellite images and receptor data from multiple ground-based sites. Quantitative comparisons are good, especially in predicting the time of arrival of the dust plume in a particular location.

Recommendations on the nature of the passenger response time distribution to be used in the MSC 1033 assembly time analysis based on data derived from sea trials

The passenger response time distributions adopted by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)in their assessment of the assembly time for passanger ships involves two key assumptions. The first is that the response time distribution assumes the form of a uniform random distribution and the second concerns the actual response times. These two assumptions are core to the validity of the IMO analysis but are not based on real data, being the recommendations of an IMO committee. In this paper, response time data collected from assembly trials conducted at sea on a real passanger vessel using actual passangers are presented and discussed. Unlike the IMO specified response time distributions, the data collected from these trials displays a log-normal distribution, similar to that found in land based environments. Based on this data, response time distributions for use in the IMO assesmbly for the day and night scenarios are suggested