Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

X-ray crystallographic structures of two lamotrigine analogues: (I) 3,5-diamino-6-(2-chlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine water solvate and (II) 3,5-diamino-6-(3,6-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine methanol solvate

The X-ray crystal structures of two lamotrigine derivatives (I) 3,5-diamino-6-(2-chlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine, C9H8ClN5, (465BL) as a hydrate, and (II) 3,5-diamino-6-(3,6-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine, C9H7Cl2N5, (469BR) as a methanol solvate, have been carried out at liquid nitrogen temperature and room temperature, respectively. A detailed comparison of the two structures is given. Both are centrosymmetric with (I) in the orthorhombic space group Pbca, a = 12.2507(3), b = 15.7160(6), c = 21.71496(9) angstrom, Z = 16, and (II) in the monoclinic space group C2/c, a = 38.553(3), b = 4.9586(2), c = 14.546(2) angstrom, beta = 111.59(1)degrees, Z = 8. Final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] for (I) are R1 = 0.0670, wR2 = 0.1515 and for (II) R1 = 0.0434, wR2 = 0.1185. Structure (I) has water of crystallization in the lattice and (II) includes a solvated CH3OH. Structure (I) is characterized by having two crystallographically independent molecules, A and B, of 465BL, per asymmetric unit. Molecule B has a very unusual feature in that the 2-chlorophenyl ring is statistically disordered, occupying site (1) in 87.5% of the structure and site (2) in 12.5% of the structure. Sites (1) and (2) are related by an exact 180 degrees pivot of the phenyl ring about the ring linkage bond. The presence of two independent molecules per asymmetric unit provides an ideal opportunity for the conformational flexibility of the molecule 465BL to be studied. Structure (I) also includes a further unusual feature in that the lattice contains one fully occupied water molecule and an additional solvated water which is only 33% occupied.