The numerical simulation of aircraft evacuation and its application to aircraft design and certification

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation ultra high capacity aircraft (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. This paper describes the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model and some attempts at validation, including its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place. Also described is a newly defined performance parameter known as OPS that can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described.

Multigrid for American option pricing with stochastic volatility

The paper describes an implicit finite difference approach to the pricing of American options on assets with a stochastic volatility. A multigrid procedure is described for the fast iterative solution of the discrete linear complementarity problems that result. The accuracy and performance of this approach is improved considerably by a strike-price related analytic transformation of asset prices and adaptive time-stepping.

Matching case history patterns in case-based reasoning

This paper introduces a mechanism for representing and recognizing case history patterns with rich internal temporal aspects. A case history is characterized as a collection of elemental cases as in conventional case-based reasoning systems, together with the corresponding temporal constraints that can be relative and/or with absolute values. A graphical representation for case histories is proposed as a directed, partially weighted and labeled simple graph. In terms of such a graphical representation, an eigen-decomposition graph matching algorithm is proposed for recognizing case history patterns.

Semi-Lagrange time integration for PDE models of asian options

Semi-Lagrange time integration is used with the finite difference method to provide accurate stable prices for Asian options, with or without early exercise. These are combined with coordinate transformations for computational efficiency and compared with published results

Wire bond reliability for power electronic modules - effect of bonding temperature

In this paper, thermal cycling reliability along with ANSYS analysis of the residual stress generated in heavy-gauge Al bond wires at different bonding temperatures is reported. 99.999% pure Al wires of 375 mum in diameter, were ultrasonically bonded to silicon dies coated with a 5mum thick Al metallisation at 25degC (room temperature), 100degC and 200degC, respectively (with the same bonding parameters). The wire bonded samples were then subjected to thermal cycling in air from -60degC to +150degC. The degradation rate of the wire bonds was assessed by means of bond shear test and via microstructural characterisation. Prior to thermal cycling, the shear strength of all of the wire bonds was approximately equal to the shear strength of pure aluminum and independent of bonding temperature. During thermal cycling, however, the shear strength of room temperature bonded samples was observed to decrease more rapidly (as compared to bonds formed at 100degC and 200degC) as a result of a high crack propagation rate across the bonding area. In addition, modification of the grain structure at the bonding interface was also observed with bonding temperature, leading to changes in the mechanical properties of the wire. The heat and pressure induced by the high temperature bonding is believed to promote grain recovery and recrystallisation, softening the wires through removal of the dislocations and plastic strain energy. Coarse grains formed at the bonding interface after bonding at elevated temperatures may also contribute to greater resistance for crack propagation, thus lowering the wire bond degradation rate

An investigation of passenger exit selection decisions in aircraft evacuation situations

This paper presents results from a questionnaire study of participant exit awareness and suggested exit selection in the event of emergency evacuations involving narrow body aircraft. The study involved 459 participants with varying flight experience. The results of this study supports the hypothesis that poor understanding by passengers of aircraft exit location and configuration may be a contributory factor in the resulting poor exit selection decisions made by passengers in emergency situations. These results have important safety implications for airlines and also provide important insight to evacuation model developers regarding the decision making process in agent exit selection.

Ethnic variations in the experiences of mental health service users in England: results of a national patient survey programme

Background: Minority ethnic groups in the UK are reported to have a poor experience of mental health services, but comparative information is scarce. Aims: To examine ethnic differences in patients’ experience of community mental health services. Method: Trusts providing mental health services in England conducted surveys in 2004 and 2005 of users of community mental health services. Multiple regression was used to examine ethnic differences in responses. Results: About 27 000 patients responded to each of the surveys, of whom 10% were of minority ethnic origin. In the 2004 survey, age, living alone, the 2004 survey, age, living alone, detention and hospital admissions were stronger predictors of patient experience than ethnicity. Self-reported mental health status had the strongest explanatory effect. In the 2005 survey, the main negative differences relative to the White British were for Asians. Conclusions: Ethnicity had a smaller effect on patient experience than other variables. Relative to the White British, the Black group did not report negative experiences whereas the Asian group were most likely to respond negatively. However, there is a need for improvements in services for minority ethnic groups, including access to talking therapies and better recording of ethnicity.