Multiphysics modelling of the metals casting process

Metals casting is a process governed by the interaction of a range of physical phenomena. Most computational models of this process address only what are conventionally regarded as the primary phenomena-heat conduction and solidification. However, to predict the formation of porosity (a factor of key importance in cast quality) requires the modelling of the interaction of the fluid flow, heat transfer, solidification and the development of stress-deformation in the solidified part of a component. In this paper, a model of the casting process is described which addresses all the main continuum phenomena involved in a coupled manner. The model is solved numerically using novel finite volume unstructured mesh techniques, and then applied to both the prediction of shape deformation (plus the subsequent formation of a gap at the metal-mould interface and its impact on the heat transfer behaviour) and porosity formation in solidifying metal components. Although the porosity prediction model is phenomenologically simplistic it is based on the interaction of the continuum phenomena and yields good comparisons with available experimental results. This work represents the first of the next generation of casting simulation tools to predict aspects of the structure of cast components.

Fitting host-parasitoid models with CV² > 1 using hierarchical generalized linear models

The powerful general Pacala-Hassell host-parasitoid model for a patchy environment, which allows host density–dependent heterogeneity (HDD) to be distinguished from between-patch, host density–independent heterogeneity (HDI), is reformulated within the class of the generalized linear model (GLM) family. This improves accessibility through the provision of general software within well–known statistical systems, and allows a rich variety of models to be formulated. Covariates such as age class, host density and abiotic factors may be included easily. For the case where there is no HDI, the formulation is a simple GLM. When there is HDI in addition to HDD, the formulation is a hierarchical generalized linear model. Two forms of HDI model are considered, both with between-patch variability: one has binomial variation within patches and one has extra-binomial, overdispersed variation within patches. Examples are given demonstrating parameter estimation with standard errors, and hypothesis testing. For one example given, the extra-binomial component of the HDI heterogeneity in parasitism is itself shown to be strongly density dependent.