[Book review] Chance encounters: a first course in data analysis and inference

Book review of: Chance Encounters: A First Course in Data Analysis and Inference by Christopher J. Wild and George A.F. Seber 2000, John Wiley & Sons Inc. Hard-bound, xviii + 612 pp ISBN 0-471-32936-3

The FUELCON meta-architecture, in the landscape of intelligent technologies for refuelling

The conception of the FUELCON architecture, of a composite tool for the generation and validation of patterns for assigning fuel assemblies to the positions in the grid of a reactor core section, has undergone an evolution throughout the history of the project. Different options for various subtask were possible, envisioned, or actually explored or adopted. We project these successive, or even concomitant configurations of the architecture, into a meta-architecture, which quite not by chance happens to reflect basic choices in the field's history over the last decade.

The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

Identifying the damage mechanisms in paper using the acoustic emission monitoring technique

This paper investigates the use of the acoustic emission (AE) monitoring technique for use in identifying the damage mechanisms present in paper associated with its production process. The microscopic structure of paper consists of a random mesh of paper fibres connected by hydrogen bonds. This implies the existence of two damage mechanisms, the failure of a fibre-fibre bond and the failure of a fibre. This paper describes a hybrid mathematical model which couples the mechanics of the mass-spring model to the acoustic wave propagation model for use in generating the acoustic signal emitted by complex structures of paper fibres under strain. The derivation of the mass-spring model can be found in [1,2], with details of the acoustic wave equation found in [3,4]. The numerical implementation of the vibro-acoustic model is discussed in detail with particular emphasis on the damping present in the numerical model. The hybrid model uses an implicit solver which intrinsically introduces artificial damping to the solution. The artificial damping is shown to affect the frequency response of the mass-spring model, therefore certain restrictions on the simulation time step must be enforced so that the model produces physically accurate results. The hybrid mathematical model is used to simulate small fibre networks to provide information on the acoustic response of each damage mechanism. The simulated AEs are then analysed using a continuous wavelet transform (CWT), described in [5], which provides a two dimensional time-frequency representation of the signal. The AEs from the two damage mechanisms show different characteristics in the CWT so that it is possible to define a fibre-fibre bond failure by the criteria listed below. The dominant frequency components of the AE must be at approximately 250 kHz or 750 kHz. The strongest frequency component may be at either approximately 250 kHz or 750 kHz. The duration of the frequency component at approximately 250 kHz is longer than that of the frequency component at approximately 750 kHz. Similarly, the criteria for identifying a fibre failure are given below. The dominant frequency component of the AE must be greater than 800 kHz. The duration of the dominant frequency component must be less than 5.00E-06 seconds. The dominant frequency component must be present at the front of the AE. Essentially, the failure of a fibre-fibre bond produces a low frequency wave and the failure of a fibre produces a high frequency pulse. Using this theoretical criteria, it is now possible to train an intelligent classifier such as the Self-Organising Map (SOM) [6] using the experimental data. First certain features must be extracted from the CWTs of the AEs for use in training the SOM. For this work, each CWT is divided into 200 windows of 5E-06s in duration covering a 100 kHz frequency range. The power ratio for each windows is then calculated and used as a feature. Having extracted the features from the AEs, the SOM can now be trained, but care is required so that the both damage mechanisms are adequately represented in the training set. This is an issue with paper as the failure of the fibre-fibre bonds is the prevalent damage mechanism. Once a suitable training set is found, the SOM can be trained and its performance analysed. For the SOM described in this work, there is a good chance that it will correctly classify the experimental AEs.

Piranesi in Ghent

Piranesi in Ghent is an exhibition, a catalogue and a symposium. It is also a telling story in the recent scholarship and recurring ‘fashionable’ re-discoveries of Piranesi’s work. It is a funny story, a serious cultural enterprise that begins, like all good love stories, by chance. But there’s more here: scholarly passion, intellectual curiosity, design and experimentations: as well as reproductions, plates and debates, and a lot of challenging hypotheses and development possibilities. This is indeed a very Piranesian story and, as in Piranesi’s work, here the less visibly obvious is worthy of the greatest attention, because it reveals more, much more indeed, than what appears at first.