The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

Extending the capabilities of the buildingEXODUS evacuation model to cater for hospital evacuations

This paper describes the extension of the building EXODUS evacuation model in order to: allow occupants to be assigned a limited set of tasks, display co-operation

Effects of structure on the comprehensibility of formal specifications

Use of structuring mechanisms (such as modularisation) is widely believed to be one of the key ways to improve software quality. Structuring is considered to be at least as important for specification documents as for source code, since it is assumed to improve comprehensibility. Yet, as with most widely held assumptions in software engineering, there is little empirical evidence to support this hypothesis. Also, even if structuring can be shown to he a good thing, we do not know how much structuring is somehow optimal. One of the more popular formal specification languages, Z, encourages structuring through its schema calculus. A controlled experiment is described in which two hypotheses about the effects of structure on the comprehensibility of Z specifications are tested. Evidence was found that structuring a specification into schemas of about 20 lines long significantly improved comprehensibility over a monolithic specification. However, there seems to be no perceived advantage in breaking down the schemas into much smaller components. The experiment can he fully replicated.

Fire field modelling using the SMARTFIRE automated dynamic solution control environment

SMARTFIRE is a fire field model based on an open architecture integrated CFD code and knowledge-based system. It makes use of the expert system to assist the user in setting up the problem specification and new computational techniques such as Group Solvers to reduce the computational effort involved in solving the equations. This paper concentrates on recent research into the use of artificial intelligence techniques to assist in dynamic solution control of fire scenarios being simulated using fire field modelling techniques. This is designed to improve the convergence capabilities of the software while further decreasing the computational overheads. The technique automatically controls solver relaxations using an integrated production rule engine with a blackboard to monitor and implement the required control changes during solution processing. Initial results for a two-dimensional fire simulation are presented that demonstrate the potential for considerable savings in simulation run-times when compared with control sets from various sources. Furthermore, the results demonstrate enhanced solution reliability due to obtaining acceptable convergence within each time step unlike some of the comparison simulations.

Adaptive decision-making in buildingEXODUS

Given the importance of occupant behaviour on evacuation efficiency, a new behavioural feature has been implemented into buildingEXODUS. This feature concerns the response of occupants to exit selection and re-direction. This behaviour is not simply pre-determined by the user as part of the initialisation process, but involves the occupant taking decisions based on their previous experiences and the information available to them. This information concerns the occupants prior knowledge of the enclosure and line-of-sight information concerning queues at neighbouring exits. This new feature is demonstrated and reviewed through several examples.

Advanced occupant behavioural features of the building-EXODUS evacuation model

The purpose of this paper is to describe and demonstrate some of the advanced behavioral features currently being developed for the building-EXODUS evacuation model. These advanced features involve the ability to specify roles for particular individuals during the evacuation. With these enhancements to the Behavioral Sub model of building-EXODUS, it is possible to include a number of procedural and behavioral aspects previously ignored in evacuation simulations. These include the behavioral aspect of group bonding, the procedural aspects involved with the role of the fire warden and rescue operations undertaken by the fire services. The importance of these enhancements are discussed and demonstrated through three simple simulations.

Multilevel mesh partitioning for optimizing domain shape

Multilevel algorithms are a successful class of optimization techniques that address the mesh partitioning problem for mapping meshes onto parallel computers. They usually combine a graph contraction algorithm together with a local optimization method that refines the partition at each graph level. To date, these algorithms have been used almost exclusively to minimize the cut-edge weight in the graph with the aim of minimizing the parallel communication overhead. However, it has been shown that for certain classes of problems, the convergence of the underlying solution algorithm is strongly influenced by the shape or aspect ratio of the subdomains. Therefore, in this paper, the authors modify the multilevel algorithms to optimize a cost function based on the aspect ratio. Several variants of the algorithms are tested and shown to provide excellent results.

A forum on case-based reasoning. Guest editorial

Guest editorial

An intelligent assistant for design and material engineers in the submarine cable industry

This paper describes an industrial application of case-based reasoning in engineering. The application involves an integration of case-based reasoning (CBR) retrieval techniques with a relational database. The database is specially designed as a repository of experiential knowledge and with the CBR application in mind such as to include qualitative search indices. The application is for an intelligent assistant for design and material engineers in the submarine cable industry. The system consists of three components; a material classifier and a database of experiential knowledge and a CBR system is used to retrieve similar past cases based on component descriptions. Work has shown that an uncommon retrieval technique, hierarchical searching, well represents several search indices and that this techniques aids the implementation of advanced techniques such as context sensitive weights. The system is currently undergoing user testing at the Alcatel Submarine Cables site in Greenwich. Plans are for wider testing and deployment over several sites internationally.

A review of the methodologies used in evacuation modelling

Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimization, simulation and risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches that are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This review attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.

The numerical simulation of fire spread within a compartment using an integrated gas and solid phase combustion model

An integrated fire spread model is presented in this study including several sub-models representing different phenomena of gaseous and solid combustion. The integrated model comprises of the following sub-models: a gaseous combustion model, a thermal radiation model that includes the effects of soot, and a pyrolysis model for charring combustible solids. The interaction of the gaseous and solid phases are linked together through the boundary conditions of the governing equations for the flow domain and the solid region respectively. The integrated model is used to simulate a fire spread experiment conducted in a half-scale test compartment. Good qualitative and reasonable quantitative agreement is achieved between the experiment and numerical predictions.

Staggered-mesh computation for aerodynamic sound

For the numerical solution of the linearized Euler equations, an optimized computational scheme is considered. It is based on fully staggered (in space and time) regular meshes and on a simple mirroring procedure at the stepwise solid walls. There is no need to define ghost points into the solid ohjects that reflect the sound waves. Test results demonstrate the accuracy of the method that may be used for aeroacoustic problems with complex geometries.

Tree species-area and species-diameter relationships at three lowland rain forest sites in Sumatra

Data from three forest sites in Sumatra (Batang Ule, Pasirmayang and Tebopandak) have been analysed and compared for the effects of sample area cut-off, and tree diameter cut-off. An 'extended inverted exponential model' is shown to be well suited to fitting tree-species-area curves. The model yields species carrying capacities of 680 for Batang Ule, 380 species for Pasirmayang, and 35 for Tebopandak (tree diameter >10cm). It would seem that in terms of species carrying capacity, Tebopandak and Pasirmayang are rather similar, and both less diverse than the hilly Batang Ule site. In terms of conservation policy, this would mean that rather more emphasis should be put on conserving hilly sites on a granite substratum. For Pasirmayang with tree diameter >3cm, the asymptotic species number estimate is 567, considerably higher than the estimate of 387 species for trees with diameter >10cm. It is clear that the diameter cut-off has a major impact on the estimate of the species carrying capacity. A conservative estimate of the total number of tree species in the Pasirmayang region is 632 species! In sampling exercises, the diameter cut-off should not be chosen lightly, and it may be worth adopting field sampling procedures which involve some subsampling of the primary sample area, where the diameter cut-off is set much lower than in the primary plots.

Representing temporal relationships between events and their effects

Temporal relationships between events and their effects are complex. As the effects of a given event, a proposition may change its truth value immediately after the occurrence of the event and remain true until some other events occur, while another proposition may only become true/false from some time after the causal event has occurred. Expressing delayed effects of events has been a problematic question in most existing theories of action and change. This paper presents a new formalism for representing general temporal causal relationships between events and their effects. It allows expressions of both immediate and delayed effects of events, and supports common-sense assertions such as "effects cannot precede their causes".