Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

A prognostic assessment method for power electronics modules

This paper describes a prognostic method which combines the physics of failure models with probability reasoning algorithm. The measured real time data (temperature vs. time) was used as the loading profile for the PoF simulations. The response surface equation of the accumulated plastic strain in the solder interconnect in terms of two variables (average temperature, and temperature amplitude) was constructed. This response surface equation was incorporated into the lifetime model of solder interconnect, and therefore the remaining life time of the solder component under current loading condition was predicted. The predictions from PoF models were also used to calculate the conditional probability table for a Bayesian Network, which was used to take into account of the impacts of the health observations of each product in lifetime prediction. The prognostic prediction in the end was expressed as the probability for the product to survive the expected future usage. As a demonstration, this method was applied to an IGBT power module used for aircraft applications.

Integrated reliability and prognostics prediction methodology for power electronic modules

The article consists of a PowerPoint presentation on integrated reliability and prognostics prediction methodology for power electronic modules. The areas discussed include: power electronics flagship; design for reliability; IGBT module; design for manufacture; power module components; reliability prediction techniques; failure based reliability; etc.

An investigation of passenger exit selection decisions in aircraft evacuation situations

This paper presents results from a questionnaire study of participant exit awareness and suggested exit selection in the event of emergency evacuations involving narrow body aircraft. The study involved 459 participants with varying flight experience. The results of this study supports the hypothesis that poor understanding by passengers of aircraft exit location and configuration may be a contributory factor in the resulting poor exit selection decisions made by passengers in emergency situations. These results have important safety implications for airlines and also provide important insight to evacuation model developers regarding the decision making process in agent exit selection.

International perspectives on energy policy and the role of nuclear power

In this book, expert energy economists assess the energy policy of thirty-one countries and the role of nuclear power. For many years the shock of Chernobyl took nuclear power off the agenda in most countries. Intense public relations activities by the industry, increasing evidence of climate change and failures to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions, have brought nuclear power issues back to the forefront of policy discussion in the nuclear renaissance countries. But some countries are just not prepared to go in that direction and, indeed, are still divesting themselves of their nuclear legacy, the nuclear phase-out countries. And how are nuclear issues being approached in the industrializing countries? An in-depth country-by-country analysis is presented within this framework. Out of such an analysis emerge thematic discussions on, among others, strategy in energy policy; nuclear plant safety, the impacts of nuclear accidents; the adequacy of nuclear power expertise. [Source: publisher's product description].

The world nuclear industry status report 2009: with particular emphasis on economic issues

A detailed review of the status of the world nuclear industry with particular emphasis on economic aspects.

The financial crisis and nuclear power

An assessment of the impact of the financial crisis on the prospects for new nuclear power plant orders worldwide.

Areva and EDF: business prospects and risks in nuclear energy

This report examines the financial position of EDF and Areva and analyses what the impact of their nuclear ambitions will be on this.

ENEL: business prospects and risks in nuclear energy

This report examines the level of debt of ENEL and how that will be impacted by its plans for new nuclear power plants.

Investigating the impact of aircraft exit availability on egress time using computer simulation

This paper examines the influence of exit availability on evacuation time for narrow body aircraft under certification trial conditions using computer simulation. A narrow body aircraft which has previously passed the certification trial is used as the test configuration. While maintaining the certification requirement of 50% of the available exits, six different configurations are examined. These include the standard certification and five other exit configurations based on commonly occurring exit combinations found in accidents. These configurations are based on data derived from the AASK database and the evacuation simulations are performed using the airEXODUS evacuation software. The results show that the certification practise of using half of the available exits predominately down one side of the aircraft is neither statistically relevant nor challenging. For the aircraft cabin layout examined, the exit configuration used in certification trial produces the shortest egress times. Furthermore, three of the six exit combinations investigated result in predicted egress times in excess of 90 seconds, suggesting that the aircraft would not satisfy the certification requirement under these conditions.

Explicit finite volume modeling of aircraft anti-icing and de-icing

In this paper, a runback water and ice prediction model is extended to anti-icing and thermal de-icing situations. The resulting coupled equations that govern thin-film flow, ice accretion, and heat conduction in the multilayered system substrate-ice-water are solved using an explicit finite volume approach. The procedure is implemented in the three-dimensional icing code ICECREMO2, and both structured and unstructured grids can be considered. Numerical results are presented to compare the present code simulations to some data provided by other ice prediction codes and to show the capabilities of the present numerical tool.

The future of energy: are competitive markets and nuclear power the answer?

The inaugural lecture of Professor Stephen Thomas at the University of Greenwich, 4th February 2010. It examines whether further pursuit of competition in energy markets and expansion in the role of nuclear power can be the main elements in a policy to meet goals of security, sustainability and affordability.

Can nuclear power plants be built in Britain without public subsidies and guarantees?

This report examines the credibility of the claim by the UK government that nuclear power plants can be built in the UK without public subsidies and guarantees

2009 world nuclear industry status report

Although some countries plan to build new nuclear power plants in the near future, in aggregate the data indicates that nuclear power's influence will continue to dwindle across the globe in coming decades.