Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database: analyzing passenger behavior in aviation accidents

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of passenger accounts from survivable aviation accidents/incidents compiled from interview data collected by agencies such as the US NTSB. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It also plays a significant role in the development of the airEXODUS aircraft evacuation model, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes the latest version of the database (Version 4.0) and includes some analysis of passenger behavior during actual accidents/incidents.

Experimental study and theoretical analysis of signage legibility distances as a function of observation angle

Signage systems are widely used in buildings to provide information for wayfinding, thereby assisting in navigation during normal circulation of pedestrians and, more importantly, exiting information during emergencies. An important consideration in determining the effectiveness of signs is establishing the region from which the sign is visible to occupants, the so-called Visibility Catchment Area (VCA). This paper attempts to factor into the determination of the VCA of signs, the observation angle of the observer using both experimental and theoretical analysis.

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

Signage legibility distances as a function of observation angle

Signage systems are widely used in buildings to provide information for wayfinding, thereby assisting in navigation during normal circulation of pedestrians and, more importantly, exiting information during emergencies. An important consideration in determining the effectiveness of signs is establishing the region from which the sign is visible to occupants, the so-called visibility catchment area (VCA). This study attempts to factor into the determination of the VCA of signs, the observation angle of the observer. In building regulations, it is implicitly assumed that the VCA is independent of the observation angle. A theoretical model is developed to explain the relationship between the VCA and observation angle and experimental trials are performed in order to assess the validity of this model. The experimental findings demonstrate a consistency with the theoretical model. Given this result, the functionality of a comprehensive evacuation model is extended in accordance with the assumptions on which the theoretical model is based and is then demonstrated using several examples

Predicting toxic gas concentrations resulting from enclosure fires using local equivalence ratio concept linked to fire field models

A practical CFD method is presented in this study to predict the generation of toxic gases in enclosure fires. The model makes use of local combustion conditions to determine the yield of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrocarbon, soot and oxygen. The local conditions used in the determination of these species are the local equivalence ratio (LER) and the local temperature. The heat released from combustion is calculated using the volumetric heat source model or the eddy dissipation model (EDM). The model is then used to simulate a range of reduced-scale and full-scale fire experiments. The model predictions for most of the predicted species are then shown to be in good agreement with the test results

Integrating personnel movement simulation into preliminary ship design

Traditionally, when designing a ship the driving issues are seen to be powering, stability, strength and seakeeping. Issues related to ship operations and evolutions are investigated later in the design process, within the constraint of a fixed layout. This can result in operational inefficiencies and limitations, excessive crew numbers and potentially hazardous situations. University College London and the University of Greenwich are in the final year of a three year EPSRC funded research project to integrate the simulation of personnel movement into early stage ship design. This allows the assessment of onboard operations while the design is still amenable to change. The project brings together the University of Greenwich developed maritimeEXODUS personnel movement simulation software and the SURFCON implementation of the Design Building Block approach to early stage ship design, which originated with the UCL Ship Design Research team. Central to the success of this project is the definition of a suitable series of Naval Combatant Human Performance Metrics which can be used to assess the performance of the design in different operational scenarios. The paper outlines the progress made on deriving the human performance metric from human factors criteria measured in simulations and their incorporation into a Behavioural Matrix for analysis. It describes the production of a series of SURFCON ship designs based on the RN Type 22 Batch 3 frigate, and their analysis using the PARAMARINE and maritimeEXODUS software. Conclusions to date will be presented on the integration of personnel movement simulation into the preliminary ship design process.

Recommendations on the nature of the passenger response time distribution to be used in the MSC 1033 assembly time analysis based on data derived from sea trials

The passenger response time distributions adopted by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)in their assessment of the assembly time for passanger ships involves two key assumptions. The first is that the response time distribution assumes the form of a uniform random distribution and the second concerns the actual response times. These two assumptions are core to the validity of the IMO analysis but are not based on real data, being the recommendations of an IMO committee. In this paper, response time data collected from assembly trials conducted at sea on a real passanger vessel using actual passangers are presented and discussed. Unlike the IMO specified response time distributions, the data collected from these trials displays a log-normal distribution, similar to that found in land based environments. Based on this data, response time distributions for use in the IMO assesmbly for the day and night scenarios are suggested

Parallel CFD fire modelling on office PCs with dynamic load balancing

Parallel processing techniques have been used in the past to provide high performance computing resources for activities such as Computational Fluid Dynamics. This is normally achieved using specialized hardware and software, the expense of which would be difficult to justify for many fire engineering practices. In this paper, we demonstrate how typical office-based PCs attached to a local area network have the potential to offer the benefits of parallel processing with minimal costs associated with the purchase of additional hardware or software. A dynamic load balancing scheme was devised to allow the effective use of the software on heterogeneous PC networks. This scheme ensured that the impact between the parallel processing task and other computer users on the network was minimized thus allowing practical parallel processing within a conventional office environment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulating the evacuation of very large populations in large domains using a parallel implementation of the buildingEXODUS evacuation model

Computer egress simulation has potential to be used in large scale incidents to provide live advice to incident commanders. While there are many considerations which must be taken into account when applying such models to live incidents, one of the first concerns the computational speed of simulations. No matter how important the insight provided by the simulation, numerical hindsight will not prove useful to an incident commander. Thus for this type of application to be useful, it is essential that the simulation can be run many times faster than real time. Parallel processing is a method of reducing run times for very large computational simulations by distributing the workload amongst a number of CPUs. In this paper we examine the development of a parallel version of the buildingEXODUS software. The parallel strategy implemented is based on a systematic partitioning of the problem domain onto an arbitrary number of sub-domains. Each sub-domain is computed on a separate processor and runs its own copy of the EXODUS code. The software has been designed to work on typical office based networked PCs but will also function on a Windows based cluster. Two evaluation scenarios using the parallel implementation of EXODUS are described; a large open area and a 50 story high-rise building scenario. Speed-ups of up to 3.7 are achieved using up to six computers, with high-rise building evacuation simulation achieving run times of 6.4 times faster than real time.

Assessment of the impact of computed and measured fire environments on building evacuation using bench and real scale test data

This study investigates the use of computer modelled versus directly experimentally determined fire hazard data for assessing survivability within buildings using evacuation models incorporating Fractionally Effective Dose (FED) models. The objective is to establish a link between effluent toxicity, measured using a variety of small and large scale tests, and building evacuation. For the scenarios under consideration, fire simulation is typically used to determine the time non-survivable conditions develop within the enclosure, for example, when smoke or toxic effluent falls below a critical height which is deemed detrimental to evacuation or when the radiative fluxes reach a critical value leading to the onset of flashover. The evacuation calculation would the be used to determine whether people within the structure could evacuate before these critical conditions develop.

Predicting toxic species concentrations in a full-scale vitiated fire

A toxicity model on dividing the computational domain into two parts, a control region (CR) and a transport region (TR), for species calculation was recently developed. The model can be incorporated with either the heat source approach or the eddy dissipation model (EDM). The work described in this paper is a further application of the toxicity model with modifications of the EDM for vitiated fires. In the modified EDM, chemical reaction only occurs within the CR. This is consistent with the approach used in the species concentration calculations within the toxicity model in which yields of combustion products only change within the CR. A vitiated large room-corridor fire, in which the carbon monoxide (CM) concentrations are very high and the temperatures are relatively low at locations distant from the original fire source, is simulated using the modified EDM coupled with the toxicity model. Compared with the EDM, the modified EDM provide significant improvements in the predictions of temperatures at remote locations. Predictions of species concentrations at various locations follow the measured trends. Good agreements between the measured and predicted species concentrations are obtained at the vitiated fire stage.

Investigating the impact of occupant response time on computer simulations of the WTC North Tower evacuation

This work explores the impact of response time distributions on high-rise building evacuation. The analysis utilises response times extracted from printed accounts and interviews of evacuees from the WTC North Tower evacuation of 11 September 2001. Evacuation simulations produced using these “real” response time distributions are compared with simulations produced using instant and engineering response time distributions. Results suggest that while typical engineering approximations to the response time distribution may produce reasonable evacuation times for up to 90% of the building population, using this approach may underestimate total evacuation times by as much as 61%. These observations are applicable to situations involving large high-rise buildings in which travel times are generally expected to be greater than response times