Trust and Leadership in Higher Education in the Downturn

This Leadership Academy Workshop presentation focused on 'Trust and Leadership in the Downturn', with particular reference to the public sector and to education. The presentation discussed a range of definitions of trust, including the view of Mayer, Davis and Schoorman (1995) that trust can be described as 'the willingness of a person to be vulnerable to the actions of another, based on the expectation that the other will perform a particular action important to the trustor, irrespective of the ability to monitor or control that action'. The presentation then focused on the reasons why this relational psychological state is important,particularly in an economic recession when people were facing job cuts and economic uncertainty in a wider political and social environment characterised by cynicism and a downturn in trust. If trust is defined in part as a belief in the honesty, competence and benevolence of others, it tends to act like 'social glue', cushioning difficult situations and enabling actions to take place easily that otherwise would not be permissible. A worrying state of affairs has recently been developing across the world, however, in the economic downturn, as reported in the Edelman Trust Barometer for 2009, in which there was a marked diminuition of trust in corporations, businesses and government, as a result of the credit crunch. While the US and parts of Europe was showing recovery from a generalised loss of trust by mid-year 2009, the UK had not. It seems that social attitudes in Britain may be hardening - it seems that from being a nation of sceptics we may be becoming a nation of cynics: for example, 69% of the population surveyed by Edelman trust the government less than six months ago. In this situation, there is a need to promote positive measures to build trust, including the establishment of more transparent and honest business practices and practices to ensure that employees are treated well. Following the presentation, a workshop was held to discuss the nature of a possible loss of trust in the downturn in the UK and its implications for leadership practices and development.

An investigation into regional differences in educational performance in the National Child Development Study

The National Child Development Study (NCDS) is used to investigate factors which affect children's educational performance over time. Multilevel modelling techniques are used on a subset of the NCDS to investigate variation in educational performance in 11 regions in the UK, and in local education authorities within these regions. Social characteristics of the NCDS members are also analysed. Differences between regions and education authorities are found to be negligible, the main source of variation in achievement being due to differences in social background.

A general approach to validating evacuation models with an application to EXODUS

Too often, validation of computer models is considered as a "once and forget" task. In this paper a systematic and graduated approach to evacua tion model validation is suggested.

Stochastic monotonicity and duality for continuous time Markov chains with general q-Matrix

The key problems in discussing stochastic monotonicity and duality for continuous time Markov chains are to give the criteria for existence and uniqueness and to construct the associated monotone processes in terms of their infinitesimal q -matrices. In their recent paper, Chen and Zhang [6] discussed these problems under the condition that the given q-matrix Q is conservative. The aim of this paper is to generalize their results to a more general case, i.e., the given q-matrix Q is not necessarily conservative. New problems arise 'in removing the conservative assumption. The existence and uniqueness criteria for this general case are given in this paper. Another important problem, the construction of all stochastically monotone Q-processes, is also considered.

Research in statistical education — planning of an international survey

As announced in the November 2000 issue of MathStats&OR [1], one of the projects supported by the Maths, Stats & OR Network funds is an international survey of research into pedagogic issues in statistics and OR. I am taking the lead on this and report here on the progress that has been made during the first year. A paper giving some background to the project and describing initial thinking on how it might be implemented was presented at the 53rd session of the International Statistical Institute in Seoul, Korea, in August 2001 in a session on The future of statistics education research [2]. It sounded easy. I considered that I was something of an expert on surveys having lectured on the topic for many years and having helped students and others who were doing surveys, particularly with the design of their questionnaires. Surely all I had to do was to draft a few questions, send them electronically to colleagues in statistical education who would be only to happy to respond, and summarise their responses? I should have learnt from my experience of advising all those students who thought that doing a survey was easy and to whom I had to explain that their ideas were too ambitious. There are several inter-related stages in survey research and it is important to think about these before rushing into the collection of data. In the case of the survey in question, this planning stage revealed several challenges. Surveys are usually done for a purpose so even before planning how to do them, it is advisable to think about the final product and the dissemination of results. This is the route I followed.

The Royal Statistical Society and statistical education

This paper describes the role of the Royal Statistical Society in shaping statistical education within the UK and further afield. Until 2001 the Society had four agencies concerned with education at all levels. The work of these is discussed and recent new arrangements are outlined. The Society’s efforts to disseminate good practice through organising meetings and running a network of Associate Schools and College are explored in some detail.

Cheats offer lesson in learning

Plagiarism and the internet should make us rethink the purpose of assessment, says Tony Mann.

A survey of teaching and assessment methods employed in UK higher education programmes for HCI course

A survey of teaching and assessment methods employed in UK Higher Education programmes for Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) courses was conducted in April 2003. The findings from this survey are presented, and conclusions drawn.

Uniqueness criteria for continuous-time Markov chains with general transition structures

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

General Harris regularity criterion for non-linear Markov branching processes

We extend the Harris regularity condition for ordinary Markov branching process to a more general case of non-linear Markov branching process. A regularity criterion which is very easy to check is obtained. In particular, we prove that a super-linear Markov branching process is regular if and only if the per capita offspring mean is less than or equal to I while a sub-linear Markov branching process is regular if the per capita offspring mean is finite. The Harris regularity condition then becomes a special case of our criterion.

A framework for e-learning: a blended solution?: current developments in technology-assisted education

This paper describes a Framework for e-Learning and presents the findings of a study investigating whether the use of Blended Learning can fulfill or at least accommodate some of the human requirements presently neglected by current e-Learning systems. This study evaluates the in-house system: Teachmat, and discusses how the use of Blended Learning has become increasingly prevalent as a result of its enhancement and expansion, its relationship to the human and pedagogical issues, and both the positive and negative implications of this reality. [From the Authors]