An investigation of the aspects of occupant behavior required for evacuation modeling

This article examines occupant behavior exhibited during evacuation conditions. This is based on a review of a wide range of published literature concerned with evacuation. Factors influencing evacuation performance can be categorized into four broad areas, namely, configurational, environmental, procedural, and, most importantly, behavioral. The contributory factors associated with each of the four influencing categories are examined in detail and it is suggested that these factors should be represented within evacuation models.

A general approach to validating evacuation models with an application to EXODUS

Too often, validation of computer models is considered as a "once and forget" task. In this paper a systematic and graduated approach to evacua tion model validation is suggested.

A review of the methodologies used in the computer simulation of evacuation from the built environment

Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimisation, simulation or risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population, and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches which are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This article attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.

The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

Extending the capabilities of the buildingEXODUS evacuation model to cater for hospital evacuations

This paper describes the extension of the building EXODUS evacuation model in order to: allow occupants to be assigned a limited set of tasks, display co-operation

Advanced occupant behavioural features of the building-EXODUS evacuation model

The purpose of this paper is to describe and demonstrate some of the advanced behavioral features currently being developed for the building-EXODUS evacuation model. These advanced features involve the ability to specify roles for particular individuals during the evacuation. With these enhancements to the Behavioral Sub model of building-EXODUS, it is possible to include a number of procedural and behavioral aspects previously ignored in evacuation simulations. These include the behavioral aspect of group bonding, the procedural aspects involved with the role of the fire warden and rescue operations undertaken by the fire services. The importance of these enhancements are discussed and demonstrated through three simple simulations.

A review of the methodologies used in evacuation modelling

Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimization, simulation and risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches that are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This review attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.

An aircraft accident database of human experience in evacuation derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However, such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise in order to address this issue. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 04/04/77 to 06/08/95, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Safer by design: using computer simulation to predict the evacuation performance of passenger ships

When designing a new passenger ship or modifiying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design is safe from an evacuation point of view? In the building and aviation industries, computer based evacuation models are being used to tackle similar issues. In these industries, the traditonal restrictive prescriptive approach to design is making way for performance based design methodologies using risk assessment and computer simulation. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models off the promise to quickly and efficiently bring these considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". This paper describes the development of evacuation models with applications to passenger ships and further discusses issues concerning data requirements and validation.

Modelling occupant interaction with fire conditions using the buildingEXODUS evacuation model

When evacuating through fire environments, the presence of smoke may not only have a physiological impact on the evacuees but may also lead occupants to adapt their evacuation strategy through the adoption of another exit. This paper attempts to introduce this type of adaptive behaviour within the buildingEXODUS evacuation model through enabling occupants to make decisions concerning the selection of the most viable available exit during an evacuation involving fire. The development of this adaptive behaviour requires the introduction of several new capabilities namely, the representation of the occupants’ familiarity with the structure, the behaviour of an occupant that is engulfed in smoke and the behaviour of an occupant that is faced with a smoke barrier. The appropriateness of the redirection decision is dependent upon behavioural data gathered from real fire incidents (in the UK and USA) that is used to construct the redirection probabilities. The implementation is shown to provide a more complex and arguably more realistic representation of this behaviour than that provided previously.

Examining the effect of exit separation on aircraft evacuation performance during 90-second certification trials using evacuation modelling techniques

This paper examines the influence of exit separation, exit availability and seating configuration on aircraft evacuation efficiency and evacuation time. The purpose of this analysis is to explore how these parameters influence the 60-foot exit separation requirement found in aircraft certification rules. The analysis makes use of the airEXODUS evacuation model and is based on a typical wide-body aircraft cabin section involving two pairs of Type-A exits located at either end of the section with a maximum permissible loading of 220 passengers located between the exits. The analysis reveals that there is a complex relationship between exit separation and evacuation efficiency. A main finding of this work is that for the cabin section examined, with a maximum passenger load of 220 and under certification conditions, exit separations up to 170ft will result in approximately constant total evacuation times and average personal evacuation times. This practical exit separation threshold is decreased to 114ft if another combination of exits is selected. While other factors must also be considered when determining maximum allowable exit separations, these results suggest it is not possible to mandate a maximum exit separation without taking into consideration exit type, exit availability and aircraft configuration.

The development of an advanced ship evacuation simulation software product and associated large scale testing facility for the collection of human shipboard behaviour data

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation point of view? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Herald of Free Enterprise and the Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerned with the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models offer the promise to quickly and efficiently bring evacuation considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". maritimeEXODUS-winner of the BCS, CITIS and RINA awards - is such a model. Features such as the ability to realistically simulate human response to fire, the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations, a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios and with an integrated abandonment model, make maritimeEXODUS a truly unique tool for assessing the evacuation capabilities of all types of vessels under a variety of conditions. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS model, the SHEBA facility from which data concerning passenger/crew performance in conditions of heel is derived and an example application demonstrating the models use in performing an evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

The application of fire and evacuation simulation in ship design

Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisation of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models used in pperforming fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.