20 resultados para Stochastic processes -- Mathematical models


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Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However, such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise in order to address this issue. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 04/04/77 to 06/08/95, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing full-scale certification trials are high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools are essential. Furthermore, evacuation models provide insight into the evacuation process that is impossible to derive from a single certification trial. The airEXODUS evacuation model has been under development since 1989 with support from the UK CAA and the aviation industry. In addition to describing the capabilities of the airEXODUS evacuation model, this paper describes the findings of a recent CAA project aimed at investigating model accuracy in predicting past certification trials. Furthermore, airEXODUS is used to examine issues related to the Blended Wing Body (BWB) and Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA). These radical new aircraft concepts pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. BWB concepts involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisle be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we discuss various issues evacuation related issues associated VLTA and BWB aircraft and demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigage these issues through examination of aisle/exit configurations for BWB cabin layouts.

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We consider single machine scheduling and due date assignment problems in which the processing time of a job depends on its position in a processing sequence. The objective functions include the cost of changing the due dates, the total cost of discarded jobs that cannot be completed by their due dates and, possibly, the total earliness of the scheduled jobs. We present polynomial-time dynamic programming algorithms in the case of two popular due date assignment methods: CON and SLK. The considered problems are related to mathematical models of cooperation between the manufacturer and the customer in supply chain scheduling.

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Dosators and other dosing mechanisms operating on generally similar principles are very widely used in the pharmaceutical industry for capsule filling, and for dosing products that are delivered to the customer in powder form such as inhalers. This is a trend that is set to increase. However a significant problem for this technology is being able to predict how accurately and reliably, new drug formulations will be dosed from these machines prior to manufacture. This paper presents a review of the literature relating to powder dosators which considers mathematical models for predicting dosator performance, the effects of the dosator geometry and machine settings on the accuracy of the dose weight. An overview of a model based on classical powder mechanics theory that has been developed at The University of Greenwich is presented. The model uses inputs from a range of powder characterisation tests including, wall friction, bulk density, stress ratio and permeability. To validate the model it is anticipated that it will be trialled for a range of powders alongside a single shot dosator test rig.

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Theoretical and experimental studies of cross correlation techniques applied to non-restrictive velocity measurement of pneumatically conveyed solids using ring-shaped electrodynamic flow sensors are presented. In-depth studies of the electrodynamic sensing mechanism, and also of the spatial sensitivity and spatial filtering properties of the sensor are included, together with their relationships to measurement accuracy and the effects of solids' velocity profiles. The experimental evaluation of a 53 mm bore sensing head is described, including trials using a calibrated pneumatic conveyor circulating pulverized fuel and cement. Comparisons of test results with the mathematical models of the sensor are used to identify important aspects of the instrument design. Off-line test results obtained using gravity-fed solids flow show that the system repeatability is within +/-0.5% over the velocity range of 2-4 m s(-1) for volumetric concentrations of solids no greater than 0.2%. Results obtained in the pilot-plant trials demonstrate that the system is capable of achieving repeatability better than +/-2% and linearity within +/-2% over the velocity range 20-40 m s(-1) for volumetric concentrations of solids in the range 0.01-0.44%.