Using mathematical models to predict the development of aircraft cabin fires

Computer based mathematical models describing aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost involved in performing large-scale fire experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be prohibitively high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a safe and viable reality. By describing the present capabilities and limitations of aircraft fire models, this paper will examine the future development of these models in the areas of large scale applications through parallel computing, combustion modelling and extinguishment modelling.

Feature-oriented grid topology design for aerospace configurations

The last few years have seen a substantial increase in the geometric complexity for 3D flow simulation. In this paper we describe the challenges in generating computation grids for 3D aerospace configuations and demonstrate the progress made to eventually achieve a push button technology for CAD to visualized flow. Special emphasis is given to the interfacing from the grid generator to the flow solver by semi-automatic generation of boundary conditions during the grid generation process. In this regard, once a grid has been generated, push button technology of most commercial flow solvers has been achieved. This will be demonstrated by the ad hoc simulation for the Hopper configuration.

Examining the effect of exit separation on aircraft evacuation performance during 90-second certification trials using evacuation modelling techniques

This paper examines the influence of exit separation, exit availability and seating configuration on aircraft evacuation efficiency and evacuation time. The purpose of this analysis is to explore how these parameters influence the 60-foot exit separation requirement found in aircraft certification rules. The analysis makes use of the airEXODUS evacuation model and is based on a typical wide-body aircraft cabin section involving two pairs of Type-A exits located at either end of the section with a maximum permissible loading of 220 passengers located between the exits. The analysis reveals that there is a complex relationship between exit separation and evacuation efficiency. A main finding of this work is that for the cabin section examined, with a maximum passenger load of 220 and under certification conditions, exit separations up to 170ft will result in approximately constant total evacuation times and average personal evacuation times. This practical exit separation threshold is decreased to 114ft if another combination of exits is selected. While other factors must also be considered when determining maximum allowable exit separations, these results suggest it is not possible to mandate a maximum exit separation without taking into consideration exit type, exit availability and aircraft configuration.

An analysis of human behaviour during aircraft evacuation situations using the AASK v3.0 database

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes recent developments with the database leading to the development of AASK v3.0. These include significantly increasing the number of passenger accounts in the database, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information, improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility and improved ease of access to the database via the internet. In addition, the paper demonstrates the use of the database by investigating a number of important issues associated with aircraft evacuation. These include issues associated with social bonding and evacuation, the relationship between the number of crew and evacuation efficiency, frequency of exit/slide failures in accidents and exploring possible relationships between seating location and chances of survival. Finally, the passenger behavioural trends described in analysis undertaken with the earlier database are confirmed with the wider data set.

The use of evacuation modelling techniques in the design of very large transport aircraft and blended wing body aircraft

Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA) pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. Questions concerning seating arrangement, nature and design of recreational space, the number, design and location of internal staircases, the number of cabin crew required and the nature of the cabin crew emergency procedures are just some of the issues that need to be addressed. Other more radical concepts such as blended wing body (BWB) design, involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisles be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigate these issues through examination of staircase evacuation procedures for VLTA and aisle/exit configuration for BWB cabin layouts.

Flight simulation

Dr Fuchen Jia, Dr Mayer Patel and Professor Edwin Galea explain how advanced fire models were used to unravel the secrets of Swissair Flight 111, which crashed off the coast of Canada in 1998.

The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to aircraft safety

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing full-scale certification trials are high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools are essential. Furthermore, evacuation models provide insight into the evacuation process that is impossible to derive from a single certification trial. The airEXODUS evacuation model has been under development since 1989 with support from the UK CAA and the aviation industry. In addition to describing the capabilities of the airEXODUS evacuation model, this paper describes the findings of a recent CAA project aimed at investigating model accuracy in predicting past certification trials. Furthermore, airEXODUS is used to examine issues related to the Blended Wing Body (BWB) and Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA). These radical new aircraft concepts pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. BWB concepts involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisle be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we discuss various issues evacuation related issues associated VLTA and BWB aircraft and demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigage these issues through examination of aisle/exit configurations for BWB cabin layouts.

The AASK Database V3.0: a database of human experience during aircraft evacuation incidents

This paper describes recent developments with the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database. The AASK database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents developed by the Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich with support from the UK CAA. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. Access to the latest version of the database (AASK V3.0) is available over the Internet. AASK consists of information derived from both passenger and cabin crew interviews, information concerning fatalities and basic accident details. Also provided with AASK is the Seat Plan Viewer that graphically displays the starting locations of all the passengers - both survivors and fatalities - as well as the exits used by the survivors. Data entered into the AASK database is extracted from the transcripts supplied by the National Transportation Safety Board in the US and the Air Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. The quality and quantity of the data was very variable ranging from short summary reports of the accidents to boxes of individual accounts from passengers, crew and investigators. Data imported into AASK V3.0 includes information from 55 accidents and individual accounts from 1295 passengers and 110 crew.

Examining the effect of exit separation on aircraft evacuation performance using evacuation modelling techniques: "Is the 60 foot rule relevant?"

This paper examines the influence of exit separation, exit availability and seating configuration on aircraft evacuation efficiency and evacuation time. The purpose of this analysis is to explore how these parameters influence the 60 foot exit separation requirement found in aircraft certification rules. The analysis makes use of the airEXODUS evacuation model and is based on a typical wide-body aircraft cabin section involving two pairs of Type-A exits located at either end of the section with a maximum permissible loading of 220 passengers located between the exits. The analysis reveals that there is a complex relationship between exit separation and evacuation efficiency. Indeed, other factors such as exit flow rate and exit availability are shown to exert a strong influence on critical exit separations. A main finding of this work is that for the cabin section examined under certification conditions, exit separations up to 170 feet will result in approximately constant total evacuation times and average personal evacuation times. This practical exit separation threshold is decreased to 114 feet if another combination of exits is selected. While other factors must also be considered when determining maximum allowable exit separations, these results suggest it is not possible to mandate a maximum exit separation without taking into consideration exit type, exit availability and aircraft configuration. This has implications when determining maximum allowable exit separations for wide and narrow body aircraft. It is also relevant when considering the maximum allowable separation between different exit types on a given aircraft configuration.

Lifetime assessment of electronic components for high reliability aerospace applications

This paper details a modelling approach for assessing the in-service (field) reliability and thermal fatigue life-time of electronic package interconnects for components used in the assembly of an aerospace system. The Finite Element slice model of a Plastic Ball Grid Array (PBGA) package and suitable energy based damage models for crack length predictions are used in this study. Thermal fatigue damage induced in tin-lead solder joints are investigated by simulating the crack growth process under a set of prescribed field temperature profiles that cover the period of operational life. The overall crack length in the solder joint for all different thermal profiles and number of cycles for each profile is predicted using a superposition technique. The effect of using an underfill is also presented. A procedure for verifying the field lifetime predictions for the electronic package by using reliability assessment under Accelerated Thermal Cycle (ATC) testing is also briefly outlined.

The use of computer simulation for aircraft evacuation certification: a report from the VERRES project

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to the evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. The methodology suggested here involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing and full-scale certification trials. The proposed methodology sets out a protocol for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. Along with the suggested protocol, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. Given the sceptical nature of the aviation community regarding any certification methodology change in general, this would involve as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The computer model would be used to reproduce a probability distribution of likely aircraft performance under current certification conditions and in addition, several other more challenging scenarios could be developed. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) would provide better insight into the actual performance capabilities of the aircraft by generating a performance probability distribution or performance envelope rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established, the second step would only involve computer simulation and component testing. This would only be contemplated after sufficient experience and confidence in the use of computer models have been developed. The third step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification would involve the introduction of several scenarios based on for example exit availability instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios into the certification process. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modelling technology to include additional behavioural features common in real accident scenarios.

Computer simulation of VLTA evacuation performance: a report from the VERRES project

This paper reports on research work undertaken for the European Commission funded study GMA2/2000/32039 Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA) Emergency Requirements Research Evacuation Study (VERRES). A particular focus was on evacuation issues with a detailed study of evacuation performance using computer models being undertaken as part of Work Package 2. This paper describes this work and investigates the use of internal stairs during evacuation using computer simulation.

Simulating the interaction of cabin crew with passengers during aircraft emergency evacuation conditions

In this paper we briefly describe new modelling capabilities within the airEXODUS evacuation model. These new capabilities involve the explicit ability to simulate the interaction of crew with passengers in managing evacuation situations