Birth-death processes with disaster and instantaneous resurrection

A new structure with the special property that instantaneous resurrection and mass disaster are imposed on an ordinary birth-death process is considered. Under the condition that the underlying birth-death process is exit or bilateral, we are able to give easily checked existence criteria for such Markov processes. A very simple uniqueness criterion is also established. All honest processes are explicitly constructed. Ergodicity properties for these processes are investigated. Surprisingly, it can be proved that all the honest processes are not only recurrent but also ergodic without imposing any extra conditions. Equilibrium distributions are then established. Symmetry and reversibility of such processes are also investigated. Several examples are provided to illustrate our results.

Requirements and design of an integrated European environmental information communication system, (IEEICS)

The needs for various forms of information systems relating to the European environment and ecosystem are reviewed, and limitations indicated. Existing information systems are reviewed and compared in terms of aims and functionalities. We consider TWO technical challenges involved in attempting to develop an IEEICS. First, there is the challenge of developing an Internet-based communication system which allows fluent access to information stored in a range of distributed databases. Some of the currently available solutions are considered, i.e. Web service federations. The second main challenge arises from the fact that there is general intra-national heterogeneity in the definitions adopted, and the measurement systems used throughout the nations of Europe. Integrated strategies are needed.

Models and tools for an integrated European environmental management and decision support system, (IEEMDSS)

This work proceeds from the assumption that a European environmental information and communication system (EEICS) is already established. In the context of primary users (land-use planners, conservationists, and environmental researchers) we ask what use may be made of the EEICS for building models and tools which is of use in building decision support systems for the land-use planner. The complex task facing the next generation of environmental and forest modellers is described, and a range of relevant modelling approaches are reviewed. These include visualization and GIS; statistical tabulation and database SQL, MDA and OLAP methods. The major problem of noncomparability of the definitions and measures of forest area and timber volume is introduced and the possibility of a model-based solution is considered. The possibility of using an ambitious and challenging biogeochemical modelling approach to understanding and managing European forests sustainably is discussed. It is emphasised that all modern methodological disciplines must be brought to bear, and a heuristic hybrid modelling approach should be used so as to ensure that the benefits of practical empirical modelling approaches are utilised in addition to the scientifically well-founded and holistic ecosystem and environmental modelling. The data and information system required is likely to end up as a grid-based-framework because of the heavy use of computationally intensive model-based facilities.

Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests: a centre for European forest science! – Some missing catalytic elements?

The Symposium, “Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests”, with sub-title “Forest ecosystem and landscape research: scientific challenges and opportunities” lists three fundamental substantive areas of research that are involved: Forest management and practices, Ecosystem processes and functional ecology, and Environmental economics and sociology. This paper argues that there are essential catalytic elements missing! Without these elements there is great danger that the aimed-for world leadership in the forest sciences will not materialize. What are the missing elements? All the sciences, and in particular biology, environmental sciences, sociology, economics, and forestry have evolved so that they include good scientific methodology. Good methodology is imperative in both the design and analysis of research studies, the management of research data, and in the interpretation of research finding. The methodological disciplines of Statistics, Modelling and Informatics (“SMI”) are crucial elements in a proposed Centre of European Forest Science, and the full involvement of professionals in these methodological disciplines is needed if the research of the Centre is to be world-class. Distributed Virtual Institute (DVI) for Statistics, Modelling and Informatics in Forestry and the Environment (SMIFE) is a consortium with the aim of providing world-class methodological support and collaboration to European research in the areas of Forestry and the Environment. It is suggested that DVI: SMIFE should be a formal partner in the proposed Centre for European Forest Science.

On the persistence of computer dreams: an application framework for robust adaptive deployment

The anticipated rewards of adaptive approaches will only be fully realised when autonomic algorithms can take configuration and deployment decisions that match and exceed those of human engineers. Such decisions are typically characterised as being based on a foundation of experience and knowledge. In humans, these underpinnings are themselves founded on the ashes of failure, the exuberance of courage and (sometimes) the outrageousness of fortune. In this paper we describe an application framework that will allow the incorporation of similarly risky, error prone and downright dangerous software artefacts into live systems – without undermining the certainty of correctness at application level. We achieve this by introducing the notion of application dreaming.

A new parameterization of Johnson's SB distribution with application to fitting forest tree diameter data

The SB distributional model of Johnson's 1949 paper was introduced by a transformation to normality, that is, z ~ N(0, 1), consisting of a linear scaling to the range (0, 1), a logit transformation, and an affine transformation, z = γ + δu. The model, in its original parameterization, has often been used in forest diameter distribution modelling. In this paper, we define the SB distribution in terms of the inverse transformation from normality, including an initial linear scaling transformation, u = γ′ + δ′z (δ′ = 1/δ and γ′ = �γ/δ). The SB model in terms of the new parameterization is derived, and maximum likelihood estimation schema are presented for both model parameterizations. The statistical properties of the two alternative parameterizations are compared empirically on 20 data sets of diameter distributions of Changbai larch (Larix olgensis Henry). The new parameterization is shown to be statistically better than Johnson's original parameterization for the data sets considered here.

Digital Forestry: A white paper

Digital Forestry has been proposed as “the science, technology, and art of systematically acquiring, integrating, analyzing, and applying digital information to support sustainable forests.” Although rooted in traditional forestry disciplines, Digital Forestry draws from a host of other fields that, in the past few decades, have become important for implementing the concept of forest ecosystem management and the principle of sustainable forestry. Digital Forestry is a framework that links all facets of forestry information at local, national, and global levels through an organized digital network. It is anticipated that a new set of principles will be established when practicing Digital Forestry concept for the evolution of forestry education, research, and practices as the 21st century unfolds.

Tree diameter distribution modelling: introducing the logitlogistic distribution

Johnson's SB distribution is a four-parameter distribution that is transformed into a normal distribution by a logit transformation. By replacing the normal distribution of Johnson's SB with the logistic distribution, we obtain a new distributional model that approximates SB. It is analytically tractable, and we name it the "logitlogistic" (LL) distribution. A generalized four-parameter Weibull model and the Burr XII model are also introduced for comparison purposes. Using the distribution "shape plane" (with axes skew and kurtosis) we compare the "coverage" properties of the LL, the generalized Weibull, and the Burr XII with Johnson's SB, the beta, and the three-parameter Weibull, the main distributions used in forest modelling. The LL is found to have the largest range of shapes. An empirical case study of the distributional models is conducted on 107 sample plots of Chinese fir. The LL performs best among the four-parameter models.

Numerical modelling for electromagnetic processing of materials

Electromagnetic processing of materials (EPM) is one of the most widely practiced and fast growing applications of magnetic and electric forces to fluid flow. EPM is encountered in both industrial processes and laboratory investigations. Applications range in scale from nano-particle manipulation to tonnes of liquid metal treated in the presence of various configurations of magnetic fields. Some of these processes are specifically designed and made possible by the use of the electromagnetic force, like the magnetic levitation of liquid droplets, whilst others involve electric currents essential for electrothermal or electrochemical reasons, for instance, in electrolytic metal production and in induction melting. An insight for the range of established and novel EPM applications can be found in the review presented by Asai [1] in the EPM-2003 conference proceedings.

Bivariate distribution modeling with tree diameter and height data

The Logit-Logistic (LL), Johnson's SB, and the Beta (GBD) are flexible four-parameter probability distribution models in terms of the (skewness-kurtosis) region covered, and each has been used for modeling tree diameter distributions in forest stands. This article compares bivariate forms of these models in terms of their adequacy in representing empirical diameter-height distributions from 102 sample plots. Four bivariate models are compared: SBB, the natural, well-known, and much-used bivariate generalization of SB; the bivariate distributions with LL, SB, and Beta as marginals, constructed using Plackett's method (LL-2P, etc.). All models are fitted using maximum likelihood, and their goodness-of-fits are compared using minus log-likelihood (equivalent to Akaike's Information Criterion, the AIC). The performance ranking in this case study was SBB, LL-2P, GBD-2P, and SB-2P

The Richit-Richards family of distributions and its use in forestry

Johnson's SB and the logit-logistic are four-parameter distribution models that may be obtained from the standard normal and logistic distributions by a four-parameter transformation. For relatively small data sets, such as diameter at breast height measurements obtained from typical sample plots, distribution models with four or less parameters have been found to be empirically adequate. However, in situations in which the distributions are complex, for example in mixed stands or when the stand has been thinned or when working with aggregated data, then distribution models with more shape parameters may prove to be necessary. By replacing the symmetric standard logistic distribution of the logit-logistic with a one-parameter “standard Richards” distribution and transforming by a five-parameter Richards function, we obtain a new six-parameter distribution model, the “Richit-Richards”. The Richit-Richards includes the “logit-Richards”, the “Richit-logistic”, and the logit-logistic as submodels. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit the model, and some problems in the maximum likelihood estimation of bounding parameters are discussed. An empirical case study of the Richit-Richards and its submodels is conducted on pooled diameter at breast height data from 107 sample plots of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.). It is found that the new models provide significantly better fits than the four-parameter logit-logistic for large data sets.

Variable frequency microwave curing of polymer materials in microelectronics packaging applications

The use of variable frequency microwave technology in curing of polymer materials used in microelectronics applications is discussed. A revolutionary open-ended microwave curing system is outlined and assessed using experimental and numerical approaches. Experimental and numerical results are presented, demonstrating the feasibility of the system

Open ended microwave oven for flip-chip assembly

A novel open-ended waveguide cavity resonator for the microwave curing of bumps, underfills and encapsulants is described. The open oven has the potential to provide fast alignment of devices during flip-chip assembly, direct chip attach, surface mount assembly or wafer-scale level packaging. The prototype microwave oven was designed to operate at X-band for ease of testing, although a higher frequency version is planned. The device described in the paper takes the form of a waveguide cavity resonator. It is approximately square in cross-section and is filled with a low-loss dielectric with a relative permittivity of 6. It is excited by end-fed probes in order to couple power preferentially into the TM3,3,k mode with the object of forming nine 'hot-spots' in the open end. Low power tests using heat sensitive film demonstrate clearly that selective heating in multiple locations in the open end of the oven is achievable

Multiphysics simulation of microwave curing in micro-electronics packaging applications

Purpose – This paper aims to present an open-ended microwave curing system for microelectronics components and a numerical analysis framework for virtual testing and prototyping of the system, enabling design of physical prototypes to be optimized, expediting the development process. Design/methodology/approach – An open-ended microwave oven system able to enhance the cure process for thermosetting polymer materials utilised in microelectronics applications is presented. The system is designed to be mounted on a precision placement machine enabling curing of individual components on a circuit board. The design of the system allows the heating pattern and heating rate to be carefully controlled optimising cure rate and cure quality. A multi-physics analysis approach has been adopted to form a numerical model capable of capturing the complex coupling that exists between physical processes. Electromagnetic analysis has been performed using a Yee finite-difference time-domain scheme, while an unstructured finite volume method has been utilized to perform thermophysical analysis. The two solvers are coupled using a sampling-based cross-mapping algorithm. Findings – The numerical results obtained demonstrate that the numerical model is able to obtain solutions for distribution of temperature, rate of cure, degree of cure and thermally induced stresses within an idealised polymer load heated by the proposed microwave system. Research limitations/implications – The work is limited by the absence of experimentally derived material property data and comparative experimental results. However, the model demonstrates that the proposed microwave system would seem to be a feasible method of expediting the cure rate of polymer materials. Originality/value – The findings of this paper will help to provide an understanding of the behaviour of thermosetting polymer materials during microwave cure processing.

Coupled FDTD-FVM simulation of microwave heating of polymer materials for micro-systems packaging applications

Heating in an idealised polymer load in a novel open-ended variable frequency microwave oven is numerically simulated using a couple solver approach. The frequency-agile microwave oven bonding system (FAMOBS)is developed to meet rapid polymer curing requirements in microelectronics and optoelectronics manufacturing. The heating of and idealised polymer load has been investigated through numerical modelling. Assessment of the system comprises of simulation of electromagnetic fields and of temperature distribution within the load. Initial simulation results are presented and contrasted with experimental analysis of field distribution