The AASK database V4.0: aircraft accident statistics and knowledge. A database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents

This paper describes the AASK database. The AASK database is unique as it is a record of human behaviour during survivable aviation accidents. The AASK database is compiled from interview data compiled by agencies such as the NTSB and the AAIB. The database can be found on the website http://fseg.gre.ac.uk

Proposed methodology for the use of computer simulation to enhance aircraft evacuation certification

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. This involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing, and full-scale certification trials. The methodology sets out a framework for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. In addition, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. This involves as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) provides better insight into aircraft evacuation performance capabilities by generating a performance probability distribution rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established the requirement for the full-scale demonstration could be dropped. The second step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification involves the introduction of several scenarios based on, for example, exit availability, instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modeling technology to include additional behavioral features common in real accident scenarios.

Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database: analyzing passenger behavior in aviation accidents

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of passenger accounts from survivable aviation accidents/incidents compiled from interview data collected by agencies such as the US NTSB. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It also plays a significant role in the development of the airEXODUS aircraft evacuation model, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes the latest version of the database (Version 4.0) and includes some analysis of passenger behavior during actual accidents/incidents.

A computational study of the characteristics of aircraft post-crash fires

Full-scale furnished cabin fires have been studied experimentally for the purpose of characterising the post-crash cabin fire environment by the US Federal Aviation Administration for many years. In this paper the Computational Fluid Dynamics fire field model SMARTFIRE is used to simulate one of these fires conducted in the C-133 test facility in order to provide further validation of the computational approach and the SMARTFIRE software. The experiment involves exposing the interior cabin materials to an external fuel fire, opening only one exit at the far end of the cabin (the same side as the rupture) for ventilation, and noting the subsequent spread of the external fire to the cabin interior and the onset of flashover at approximately 210 seconds. Through this analysis, the software is shown to be in good agreement with the experimental data, producing reasonable agreement with the fire dynamics prior to flashover and producing a reasonable prediction of the flashover time i.e. 225 seconds. The paper then proceeds to utilize the model to examine the impact on flashover time of the extent of cabin furnishings and cabin ventilation provided by available exits

CAA paper 2006/01: a database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents: the aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database (AASK)

This report concerns the development of the AASK V4.0 database (CAA Project 560/SRG/R+AD). AASK is the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database, which is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The AASK database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. With support from the UK CAA (Project 277/SRG/R&AD), AASK V3.0 was developed. This was an on-line prototype system available over the internet to selected users and included a significantly increased number of passenger accounts compared with earlier versions, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information and improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility. The most recently completed AASK project (Project 560/SRG/R+AD) involved four main components: a) analysis of the data collected in V3.0; b) continued collection and entry of data into AASK; c) maintenance and functional development of the AASK database; and d) user feedback survey. All four components have been pursued and completed in this two-year project. The current version developed in the last year of the project is referred to as AASK V4.0. This report provides summaries of the work done and the results obtained in relation to the project deliverables.

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

An investigation of passenger exit selection decisions in aircraft evacuation situations

This paper presents results from a questionnaire study of participant exit awareness and suggested exit selection in the event of emergency evacuations involving narrow body aircraft. The study involved 459 participants with varying flight experience. The results of this study supports the hypothesis that poor understanding by passengers of aircraft exit location and configuration may be a contributory factor in the resulting poor exit selection decisions made by passengers in emergency situations. These results have important safety implications for airlines and also provide important insight to evacuation model developers regarding the decision making process in agent exit selection.

Investigating the impact of aircraft exit availability on egress time using computer simulation

This paper examines the influence of exit availability on evacuation time for narrow body aircraft under certification trial conditions using computer simulation. A narrow body aircraft which has previously passed the certification trial is used as the test configuration. While maintaining the certification requirement of 50% of the available exits, six different configurations are examined. These include the standard certification and five other exit configurations based on commonly occurring exit combinations found in accidents. These configurations are based on data derived from the AASK database and the evacuation simulations are performed using the airEXODUS evacuation software. The results show that the certification practise of using half of the available exits predominately down one side of the aircraft is neither statistically relevant nor challenging. For the aircraft cabin layout examined, the exit configuration used in certification trial produces the shortest egress times. Furthermore, three of the six exit combinations investigated result in predicted egress times in excess of 90 seconds, suggesting that the aircraft would not satisfy the certification requirement under these conditions.

Induction of apoptosis in host cells: a survival mechanism for Leishmania parasites?

Leishmania parasites invade host macrophages, causing infections that are either limited to skin or spread to internal organs. In this study, 3 species causing cutaneous leishmaniasis, L. major, L. aethiopica and L. tropica, were tested for their ability to interfere with apoptosis in host macrophages in 2 different lines of human monocyte-derived macrophages (cell lines THP-1 and U937) and the results confirmed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). All 3 species induced early apoptosis 48 h after infection (expression of phosphatidyl serine on the outer membrane). There were significant increases in the percentage of apoptotic cells both for U937 and PBMC following infection with each of the 3 species. Early apoptotic events were confirmed by mitochondrial membrane permeabilization detection and caspase activation 48 and 72 h after infection. Moreover, the percentage of infected THP-1 and U937 macrophages increased significantly (up to 100%) following treatment with an apoptosis inducer. Since phosphatidyl serine externalization on apoptosing cells acts as a signal for engulfment by macrophages, induction of apoptosis in the parasitized cells could actively participate in spreading the infection. In summary, parasite-containing apoptotic bodies with intact membranes could be released and phagocytosed by uninfected macrophages.

Survival in 176 patients with inoperable non small cell lung cancer treated initially with chemotherapy in a district general hospital

In advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) platinum based chemotherapy with second generation drugs improves median survival (MS) to 8 months and 29% and 10% at 1 and 2 years. Platinum with a third generation drug can improve survival further (BMJ 1995;311: 899) (Spiro et al. Thorax 2004;59:828 Big Lung Trial; N Engl J Med 2003;346:92 ECOG study). NICE now recommends chemotherapy with platinum and a third generation drug for inoperable NSCLC as the first treatment modality. Methods: We audited survival of 176/461 consecutive patients referred for at least 3 courses of platinum and either gemcitabine or vinorelbine from July 2001 to December 2005. Minimal follow up 17 months. Chemotherapy was given on site. Radical radiotherapy for stage IIIA, palliative radiotherapy and second line drugs were given as felt appropriate. Results: 64% were male. 30 (17%) were <55 years ; 66 (37.5%) age 55–65 years; 63 (35.8%) aged 66–75 and 16 (9.1%) >75 years. 5 (2.8%) were stage II; 46 (26%) stage IIIA; 68 (38%) stage IIIB and 55 (30.8%) stage IV. 68 (38%) had 0– 2 courses; 63 (36%) 3 courses and 44 (25%) had 4 or more.

Explicit finite volume modeling of aircraft anti-icing and de-icing

In this paper, a runback water and ice prediction model is extended to anti-icing and thermal de-icing situations. The resulting coupled equations that govern thin-film flow, ice accretion, and heat conduction in the multilayered system substrate-ice-water are solved using an explicit finite volume approach. The procedure is implemented in the three-dimensional icing code ICECREMO2, and both structured and unstructured grids can be considered. Numerical results are presented to compare the present code simulations to some data provided by other ice prediction codes and to show the capabilities of the present numerical tool.