The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part I: The JAMA Model and narrative interpretation patterns

For the purposes of starting to tackle, within artificial intelligence (AI), the narrative aspects of legal narratives in a criminal evidence perspective, traditional AI models of narrative understanding can arguably supplement extant models of legal narratives from the scholarly literature of law, jury studies, or the semiotics of law. Not only: the literary (or cinematic) models prominent in a given culture impinge, with their poetic conventions, on the way members of the culture make sense of the world. This shows glaringly in the sample narrative from the Continent-the Jama murder, the inquiry, and the public outcry-we analyse in this paper. Apparently in the same racist crime category as the case of Stephen Lawrence's murder (in Greenwich on 22 April 1993) with the ensuing still current controversy in the UK, the Jama case (some 20 years ago) stood apart because of a very unusual element: the eyewitnesses identifying the suspects were a group of football referees and linesmen eating together at a restaurant, and seeing the sleeping man as he was set ablaze in a public park nearby. Professional background as witnesses-cum-factfinders in a mass sport, and public perceptions of their required characteristics, couldn't but feature prominently in the public perception of the case, even more so as the suspects were released by the magistrate conducting the inquiry. There are sides to this case that involve different expected effects in an inquisitorial criminal procedure system from the Continent, where an investigating magistrate leads the inquiry and prepares the prosecution case, as opposed to trial by jury under the Anglo-American adversarial system. In the JAMA prototype, we tried to approach the given case from the coign of vantage of narrative models from AI.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

Busbar sizing modeling tools: comparing an ANSYS® based 3D model with the versatile 1D model part of MHD-Valdis

The main goal of a cell stability MHD model like MHD-Valdis is to help locate the busbars around the cell in a way which leads to the generation of a magnetic field inside the cell that itself leads to a stable cell operation. Yet as far as the cell stability is concerned, the uniformity of the current density in the metal pad is also extremely important and can only be achieved with a correct busbar network sizing. This work compares the usage of a detailed ANSYS based 3D thermo-electric model with the one of the versatile 1D part of MHD-Valdis to help design a well balanced busbar network.

CFD fire simulation of the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire - part II: fire spread analysis

In 1998, Swissair Flight I I I (SR111) developed an in-flight fire shortly after take-off which resulted in the loss of the aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas MD-I 1, and all passengers and crew. The Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire and Explosion Group launched a four year investigation into the incident in an attempt to understand the cause and subsequent mechanisms which lead to the rapid spread of the in-flight fire. As part of this investigation, the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software was used to predict the 'possible' development of the fire and associated smoke movement. In this paper the CFD fire simulations are presented and model predictions compared with key findings from the investigation. The model predictions are shown to be consistent with a number of the investigation findings associated with the early stages of the fire development. The analysis makes use of simulated pre-fire airflow conditions within the MD-11 cockpit and above ceiling region presented in an earlier publication (Part 1) which was published in The Aeronautical Journal in January 2006(4).

An introduction to China's rail transport Part 1: History, present and future of China's railways

In this paper an introduction is given to the history, current situation and future plans of China's railway industry. The history of China's railway is divided into four development phases: the phase in Imperial China, the phase in the Republic of China and the phases before and after the economic rejuvenation of the People's Republic of China. An introduction to the current situation and future plans includes the major projects under construction and development trends of China's railways. The environment of China's railways is also presented. This is the first of two papers on the railway scene in China.

An introduction to China's rail transport Part 2: Urban rail transit systems, highway transport and the reform of China's railways

In this paper, an introduction is provided to some of the components of China's transport system. The authors include the urban rail transit systems, the highway transport systems and its competition for China's railways and the reform of China's railway industry. This is the second of two papers on the situation of rail transport in China.

Effect of adding 0.3 wt% Ni into the Sn–0.7 wt%Cu solder: part I: wetting behavior on Cu and Ni substrates

Comparative wetting behavior of Sn-0.7Cu and Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solders on Cu and Ni substrates were assessed through the wetting balance test. No-clean (NC), non-activated (R) and water soluble organic acid (WS) fluxes were used to assess the wetting behavior for three different solder bath temperatures of 255, 275 and 295 °C. Experimental results unveiled that adding of 0.3 wt% Ni into Sn-0.7Cu solder can improve the wetting on Cu substrate when NC and WS fluxes are used. However, such addition of Ni did not improve the wetting of Sn-0.7Cu solder for R-type flux. In the case of Ni substrate, addition of Ni helped to improve the wetting for all three types of fluxes as higher wetting forces were documented for Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solder compared to the Sn-0.7Cu solder. Among the fluxes, worst performance was observed for R-type flux. Very large contact angles were recorded for both solders with this kind of flux. Experimental results also revealed that higher solder bath temperature played an important role to lower the contact angle, to increase the wetting force and to enhance the wetting. Computer modeling of wetting balance test also revealed that both the wetting force and meniscus height are inversely proportional to the contact angles. Besides, solder bath depth and radius do not affect significantly on the wetting behavior.

Effect of adding 0.3wt% Ni into the Sn-0.7wt% Cu solder - Part II: Growth of intermetallic layer with Cu during wetting and aging

The growth behavior of intermetallic layer with or without adding 0.3 wt% Ni into the Sn-0.7Cu solder was studied during the wetting reaction on Cu-substrate and thereafter in solid-state aging condition. The Cu-solder reaction couple was prepared at 255, 275 and 295 °C for 10 s. The samples reacted at 255 °C were then isothermally aged for 2-14 days at 150 °C. The reaction species formed for the Sn-0.7Cu/Cu and Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni/Cu soldering systems were Cu6Sn5 and (CuNi)6Sn5, respectively. The thickness of the intermetallic compounds formed at the solder/Cu interfaces and also in the bulk of both solders increased with the increase of reaction temperature. It was found that Ni-containing Sn-0.7Cu solder exhibited lower growth of intermetallic layer during wetting and in the early stage of aging and eventually exceeded the intermetallic layer thickness of Sn-0.7Cu/Cu soldering system after 6 days of aging. As the aging time proceeds, a non-uniform intermetallic layer growth tendency was observed for the case of Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solder. The growth behavior of intermetallic layer during aging for both solders followed the diffusion-controlled mechanism. The intermetallic layer growth rate constants for Sn-0.7Cu and Sn-0.7Cu-0.3Ni solders were calculated as 1.41 × 10-17 and 1.89 × 10-17 m2/s, respectively which indicated that adding 0.3 wt% Ni with Sn-0.7Cu solder contributed to the higher growth of intermetallic layer during aging. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vibrational spectroscopy and DFT calculations of di-amino acid cyclic peptides. Part I: cyclo(Gly-Gly), cyclo(L-Ala-L-Ala) and cyclo(L-Ala-Gly) in the solid state and in aqueous solution

Investigations of the vibrational spectra of cyclo(Gly-Gly), cyclo(L-Ala-L-Ala) and cyclo(t-Ala-Gly) are reported. Raman scattering and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra of solid-state and aqueous protonated samples, as well as their corresponding N-deuterated isotopomers, have been examined. In addition, density functional theory (DFT) (B3-LYP/cc-pVDZ) calculations of molecular structures and their associated vibrational modes were carried out. In each case, the calculated structures of lowest energy for the isolated gas-phase molecules have boat conformations. Assignments have been made for the observed Raman and FTIR vibrational bands of the cyclic di-amino acid peptides (CDAPs) examined. Raman polarization studies of aqueous phase samples are consistent with C-2 and C-1 symmetries for the six-membered rings of cyclo(L-Ala-L-Ala) and cydo(L-Ala-Gly), respectively. There is a good correlation between experimental and calculated vibrational bands for the three CDAPs. These data are in keeping with boat conformations for cydo(L-Ala-L-Ala) and cyclo(L-Ala-Gly) molecules, predicted by the ab initio calculations, in both the solid and aqueous solution states. However, Raman spectroscopic results might infer that cyclo(L-AlaGly) deviates only slightly from planarity in the solid state. The potential energy distributions of the amide I and II modes of a cis-peptide linkage are shown to be significantly different from those of the trans-peptides. For example, deuterium shifts have shown that the cis-amide I vibrations found in cyclo(Gly-Gly), cyclo(L-Ala-L-Ala), and cyclo(L-Ala-Gly) have larger N-H contributions compared to their trans-amide counterparts. Compared to trans-amide II vibrations, cis-amide II vibrations show a considerable decrease in N-H character.