The prediction of fire propagation in enclosure fires

In this paper we present some early work concerned with the development of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modelling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid cellulosic hels A simple solid &el combustion model consisting of a thermal pyrolysis model, a six flux radiation model and an eddydissipation model for gaseous combustion have been developed and implemented within the CFD code CFDS-FLOW3D The model is briefly described and demonstrated through two applications involving fire spread in a compartment with a plywood lined ceiling. The two scenarios considered involve a fire in an open and closed compartment The model is shown to be able to qualitatively predict behaviours similar to flashover - in the case of the open room - and backdrafl - in the case of the initially closed room.

The FUELCON meta-architecture, II: alternatives for parameter prediction

We continue the discussion of the decision points in the FUELCON metaarchitecture. Having discussed the relation of the original expert system to its sequel projects in terms of an AND/OR tree, we consider one further domain for a neural component: parameter prediction downstream of the core reload candidate pattern generator, thus, a replacement for the NOXER simulator currently in use in the project.

The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to evacuation certification, crew training and accident investigation.

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, cabin crew training and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described. Finally, the data requiremnets of the airEXODUS evacuation model is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the the Univesity of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

The numerical simulation of aircraft evacuation and its application to aircraft design and certification

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in cabin crew training and post mortuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation `Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. This paper describes the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model and some attempts at validation, including its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described.

The numerical simulation of aircraft evacuation and its application to aircraft design and certification

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation ultra high capacity aircraft (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. This paper describes the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model and some attempts at validation, including its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place. Also described is a newly defined performance parameter known as OPS that can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described.

The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

The numerical simulation of noncharring thermal degradation and its application to the prediction of compartment fire development

In this paper we present some work concerned with the development and testing of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modeling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid fuels. The CFD model is coupled with a simple thermal pyrolysis model for combustible solid noncharring fuels, a six-flux radiation model and an eddy-dissipation model for gaseous combustion. The model is then used to simulate a series of small-scale room fire experiments in which the target solid fuel is polymethylmethacrylate. The numerical predictions produced by this coupled model are found to be in very good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, numerical predictions of the relationship between the air entrained into the fire compartment and the ventilation factor produce a characteristic linear correlation with constant of proportionality 0.38 kg/sm5/12. The simulation results also suggest that the model is capable of predicting the onset of "flashover" type behavior within the fire compartment.

A computational model for defect prediction in shape castings based on the interaction of free surface flow, heat transfer, and solidification phenomena

High-integrity castings require sophisticated design and manufacturing procedures to ensure they are essentially macrodefect free. Unfortunately, an important class of such defects—macroporosity, misruns, and pipe shrinkage—are all functions of the interactions of free surface flow, heat transfer, and solidication in complex geometries. Because these defects arise as an interaction of the preceding continuum phenomena, genuinely predictive models of these defects must represent these interactions explicitly. This work describes an attempt to model the formation of macrodefects explicitly as a function of the interacting continuum phenomena in arbitrarily complex three-dimensional geometries. The computational approach exploits a compatible set of finite volume procedures extended to unstructured meshes. The implementation of the model is described together with its testing and a measure of validation. The model demonstrates the potential to predict reliably shrinkage macroporosity, misruns, and pipe shrinkage directly as a result of interactions among free-surface fluid flow, heat transfer, and solidification.

Computational model for prediction of particle degradation during dilute phase pneumatic conveying: the use of a laboratory scale degradation tester for the determination of degradation propensity

The overall objective of this work is to develop a computational model of particle degradation during dilute-phasepneumatic conveying. A key feature of such a model is the prediction of particle breakage due to particle–wall collisions in pipeline bends. This paper presents a method for calculating particle impact degradation propensity under a range of particle velocities and particle sizes. It is based on interpolation on impact data obtained in a new laboratory-scale degradation tester. The method is tested and validated against experimental results for degradation at 90± impact angle of a full-size distribution sample of granulated sugar. In a subsequent work, the calculation of degradation propensity is coupled with a ow model of the solids and gas phases in the pipeline.

Computational model for prediction of particle degradation during dilute-phase pneumatic conveying: modeling of dilute-phase pneumatic conveying

A complete model of particle impact degradation during dilute-phase pneumatic conveying is developed, which combines a degradation model, based on the experimental determination of breakage matrices, and a physical model of solids and gas flow in the pipeline. The solids flow in a straight pipe element is represented by a model consisting of two zones: a strand-type flow zone immediately downstream of a bend, followed by a fully suspended flow region after dispersion of the strand. The breakage matrices constructed from data on 90° angle single-impact tests are shown to give a good representation of the degradation occurring in a pipe bend of 90° angle. Numerical results are presented for degradation of granulated sugar in a large scale pneumatic conveyor.

Solder life prediction in a thermal analysis software environment

This paper describes recent developments made to the stress analysis module within FLOTHERM, extending its capability to handle viscoplastic behavior. It also presents the validation of this approach and results obtained for an SMT resistor as an illustrative example. Lifetime predictions are made using the creep strain energy based models of Darveaux. Comment is made about the applicability of the damage model to the geometry of the joint under study.

Support vector machines for regression and applications to software quality prediction

Software metrics are the key tool in software quality management. In this paper, we propose to use support vector machines for regression applied to software metrics to predict software quality. In experiments we compare this method with other regression techniques such as Multivariate Linear Regression, Conjunctive Rule and Locally Weighted Regression. Results on benchmark dataset MIS, using mean absolute error, and correlation coefficient as regression performance measures, indicate that support vector machines regression is a promising technique for software quality prediction. In addition, our investigation of PCA based metrics extraction shows that using the first few Principal Components (PC) we can still get relatively good performance.

Lifetime prediction for power electronics module substrate mount-down solder interconnect

A numerical modeling method for the prediction of the lifetime of solder joints of relatively large solder area under cyclic thermal-mechanical loading conditions has been developed. The method is based on the Miner's linear damage accumulation rule and the properties of the accumulated plastic strain in front of the crack in large area solder joint. The nonlinear distribution of the damage indicator in the solder joints have been taken into account. The method has been used to calculate the lifetime of the solder interconnect in a power module under mixed cyclic loading conditions found in railway traction control applications. The results show that the solder thickness is a parameter that has a strong influence on the damage and therefore the lifetime of the solder joint while the substrate width and the thickness of the baseplate are much less important for the lifetime

Integrated reliability and prognostics prediction methodology for power electronic modules

The article consists of a PowerPoint presentation on integrated reliability and prognostics prediction methodology for power electronic modules. The areas discussed include: power electronics flagship; design for reliability; IGBT module; design for manufacture; power module components; reliability prediction techniques; failure based reliability; etc.