The use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model for selecting the fire origin room

Over the last three decades, the fire safety codes have been changing from a prescriptive approach to a performance-based one. Some countries, such as the USA, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia and the UK, are in an advanced stage of development and implementation of the performance-based codes. However, there are some difficulties in this process. Most of them are due to the uncertainties associated with fire design. For instance, one of the questions that need to be answered is how to select the most probable fire origin room (FOR)? On the other hand, to know where the FOR is located is also an important aspect in terms of forensic issues. Given that, to address this question is an important step for the establishment of fire designs (i.e., pre-fire phases) and also for fire investigations (i.e., post-fire phases). This paper proposes a methodology for selecting the FOR through the use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model: the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The proposed method is then applied to a hypothetical study case. The results are presented and discussed in this paper.

Ultra-fine pitch flip-chip assembly using isotropic conductive adhesives

This paper discusses results from a highly interdisciplinary research project which investigated different packaging options for ultra-fine pitch, low temperature and low cost flip-chip assembly. Isotropic Conductive Adhesives (ICAs) are stencil printed to form the interconnects for the package. ICAs are utilized to ensure a low temperature assembly process of flip-chip copper column bumped packages. Results are presented on the structural integrity of novel electroformed stencils. ICA deposits at sub-100 micron pitch and the subsequent thermo-mechanical behaviour of the flip-chip ICA joints are analysed using numerical modelling techniques. Optimal design rules for enhanced performance and thermomechanical reliability of ICA assembled flip-chip packages are formulated.

Computational modelling for reliable flip-chip packaging at sub-100 micron pitch using isotropic conductive adhesives

This paper presents the assembly process using next generation electroformed stencils and Isotropic Conductive Adhesives (ICAs) as interconnection material. The utilisation of ICAs in flip-chip assembly process is investigated as an alternative to the lead and lead-free solder alloys and aims to ensure a low temperature (T < 100 °C) assembly process. The paper emphasizes and discusses in details the assembly of a flip-chip package based on copper columns bumped die and substrate with stencil printed ICA deposits at sub-100 μm pitch. A computational modelling approach is undertaken to provide comprehensive results on reliability trends of ICA joints subject to thermal cycling of the flip-chip assembly based on easy to use damage criteria and damage evaluation. Important design parameters in the package are selected and investigated using numerical modelling techniques to provide knowledge and understanding of their impact on the thermo-mechanical behaviour of the flip-chip ICA joints. Sensitivity analysis of the damage in the adhesive material is also carried out. Optimal design rules for enhanced performance and improved thermo-mechanical reliability of ICA assembled flip-chip packages are finally formulated.

Optimizing the reliability of power electronics module isolation substrates

Optimal design of a power electronics module isolation substrate is assessed using a combination of finite element structural mechanics analysis and response surface optimisation technique. Primary failure modes in power electronics modules include the loss of structural integrity in the ceramic substrate materials due to stresses induced through thermal cycling. Analysis of the influence of ceramic substrate design parameters is undertaken using a design of experiments approach. Finite element analysis is used to determine the stress distribution for each design, and the results are used to construct a quadratic response surface function. A particle swarm optimisation algorithm is then used to determine the optimal substrate design. Analysis of response surface function gradients is used to perform sensitivity analysis and develop isolation substrate design rules. The influence of design uncertainties introduced through manufacturing tolerances is assessed using a Monte-Carlo algorithm, resulting in a stress distribution histogram. The probability of failure caused by the violation of design constraints has been analyzed. Six geometric design parameters are considered in this work and the most important design parameters have been identified. Overall analysis results can be used to enhance the design and reliability of the component.

Minimising the risk of defects in nano-imprint forming

Nano-imprint forming (NIF) is among the most attractive manufacturing technologies offering high yield and low-cost fabrication of three-dimensional fine structures and patterns with resolution of few nanometres. Optimising NIF process is critical for achieving high quality products and minimising the risk of commonly observed defects. Using finite element analysis, the effect of various process parameters is evaluated and design rules for safe and reliable NIF fabrication formulated. This work is part of a major UK Grand Challenge project - 3D-Mintegration - for design, simulation, fabrication, assembly and test of next generation 3D-miniaturised systems.

The application of fire and evacuation simulation in ship design

Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisation of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models used in pperforming fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

Fire safety engineering and ship design using advanced fire and evacuation simulation

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the number of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033

Safer by design: simulating fire and escape at sea

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of fire and fire suppression systems and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033. The fire simulations include the action of a water mist system.

The role of evacuation and fire modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

SMARTFIRE: an intelligent CFD-based fire model

This paper describes a project aimed at making Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based fire simulation accessible to members of the fire safety engineering community. Over the past few years, the practise of CFD based fire simulation has begun the transition from the confines of the research laboratory to the desk of the fire safety engineer. To a certain extent, this move has been driven by the demands of performance based building codes. However, while CFD modelling has many benefits over other forms of fire simulation, it requires a great deal of expertise on the user’s part to obtain reasonable simulation results. The project described in this paper, SMARTFIRE, aims to relieve some of this dependence on expertise so that users are less concerned with the details of CFD analysis and can concentrate on results. This aim is achieved by the use of an expert system component as part of the software suite which takes some of the expertise burden away from the user. SMARTFIRE also makes use of the latest developments in CFD technology in order to make the CFD analysis more efficient. This paper describes design considerations of the SMARTFIRE software, emphasising its open architecture, CFD engine and knowledge based systems.

The numerical simulation of aircraft evacuation and its application to aircraft design and certification

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in cabin crew training and post mortuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation `Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. This paper describes the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model and some attempts at validation, including its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described.

The numerical simulation of aircraft evacuation and its application to aircraft design and certification

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation ultra high capacity aircraft (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. This paper describes the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model and some attempts at validation, including its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place. Also described is a newly defined performance parameter known as OPS that can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described.

SMARTFIRE: an intelligent CFD based fire model

This paper describes a project aimed at making Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)- based fire simulation accessible to members of the fire safety engineering community. Over the past few years, the practice of CFD-based fire simulation has begun the transition from the confines of the research laboratory to the desk of the fire safety engineer. To a certain extent, this move has been driven by the demands of performance based building codes. However, while CFD modeling has many benefits over other forms of fire simulation, it requires a great deal of expertise on the user’s part to obtain reasonable simulation results. The project described in this paper, SMARTFIRE, aims to relieve some of this dependence on expertise so that users are less concerned with the details of CFD analysis and can concentrate on results. This aim is achieved by the use of an expert system component as part of the software suite which takes some of the expertise burden away from the user. SMARTFIRE also makes use of the latest developments in CFD technology in order to make the CFD analysis more efficient. This paper describes design considerations of the SMARTFIRE software, emphasizing its open architecture, CFD engine and knowledge-based systems.

The development of a CFD based simulator for water mist suppression systems: the development of the fire submodel

The FIRE Detection and Suppression Simulation (FIREDASS) project was concerned with the development of water misting systems as a possible replacement for halon based fire suppression systems currently used in aircraft cargo holds and ship engine rooms. As part of this program of work, a computational model was developed to assist engineers optimize the design of water mist suppression systems. The model is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and comprised of the following components: fire model; mist model; two-phase radiation model; suppression model; detector/activation model. In this paper the FIREDASS software package is described and the theory behind the fire and radiation sub-models is detailed. The fire model uses prescribed release rates for heat and gaseous combustion products to represent the fire load. Typical release rates have been determined through experimentation. The radiation model is a six-flux model coupled to the gas (and mist) phase. As part of the FIREDASS project, a detailed series of fire experiments were conducted in order to validate the fire model. Model predictions are compared with data from these experiments and good agreement is found.