The development of an advanced ship evacuation simulation software product and associated large scale testing facility for the collection of human shipboard behaviour data

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation point of view? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Herald of Free Enterprise and the Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerned with the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models offer the promise to quickly and efficiently bring evacuation considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". maritimeEXODUS-winner of the BCS, CITIS and RINA awards - is such a model. Features such as the ability to realistically simulate human response to fire, the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations, a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios and with an integrated abandonment model, make maritimeEXODUS a truly unique tool for assessing the evacuation capabilities of all types of vessels under a variety of conditions. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS model, the SHEBA facility from which data concerning passenger/crew performance in conditions of heel is derived and an example application demonstrating the models use in performing an evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

The AGILE policy expression language for autonomic systems

This paper presents the AGILE policy expression language. The language enables powerful expression of self-managing behaviours and facilitates policy-based autonomic computing in which the policies themselves can be adapted dynamically and automatically. The language is generic so as to be deployable across a wide spectrum of application domains, and is very flexible through the use of simple yet expressive syntax and semantics. The development of AGILE is motivated by the need for adaptive policy mechanisms that are easy to deploy into legacy code and can be used by non autonomics-expert practitioners to embed self-managing behaviours with low cost and risk. A library implementation of the policy language is described. The implementation extends the state of the art in policy-based autonomics through innovations which include support for multiple policy versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and higher-level ‘meta-policies’ to dynamically select between differently configured business-logic policy instances and templates. Two dissimilar example deployment scenarios are examined.

The role of evacuation and fire modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

The numerical simulation of the noncharring pyrolysis process and fire development within a compartment

A pyrolysis model for noncharring solid fuels is presented in this paper. Model predictions are compared with experimental data for the mass loss rates of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and very good agreement is achieved. Using a three-dimensional CFD environment, the pyrolysis model is then coupled with a gas-phase combustion model and a thermal radiation model to simulate fire development within a small compartment. The numerical predictions produced by this coupled model are found to be in very good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, numerical predictions of the relationship between the air entrained into the fire compartment and the ventilation factor produce a characteristic post-flashover linear correlation with constant of proportionality 0.38 kg/sm5=2. The simulation results also suggest that the model is capable of predicting the onset of "flashover" and "post-flashover" type behaviour within the fire compartment.

The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

The numerical simulation of noncharring thermal degradation and its application to the prediction of compartment fire development

In this paper we present some work concerned with the development and testing of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modeling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid fuels. The CFD model is coupled with a simple thermal pyrolysis model for combustible solid noncharring fuels, a six-flux radiation model and an eddy-dissipation model for gaseous combustion. The model is then used to simulate a series of small-scale room fire experiments in which the target solid fuel is polymethylmethacrylate. The numerical predictions produced by this coupled model are found to be in very good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, numerical predictions of the relationship between the air entrained into the fire compartment and the ventilation factor produce a characteristic linear correlation with constant of proportionality 0.38 kg/sm5/12. The simulation results also suggest that the model is capable of predicting the onset of "flashover" type behavior within the fire compartment.

Using mathematical models to predict the development of aircraft cabin fires

Computer based mathematical models describing aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost involved in performing large-scale fire experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be prohibitively high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a safe and viable reality. By describing the present capabilities and limitations of aircraft fire models, this paper will examine the future development of these models in the areas of large scale applications through parallel computing, combustion modelling and extinguishment modelling.

The development of a CFD based simulator for water mist suppression systems: the development of the fire submodel

The FIRE Detection and Suppression Simulation (FIREDASS) project was concerned with the development of water misting systems as a possible replacement for halon based fire suppression systems currently used in aircraft cargo holds and ship engine rooms. As part of this program of work, a computational model was developed to assist engineers optimize the design of water mist suppression systems. The model is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and comprised of the following components: fire model; mist model; two-phase radiation model; suppression model; detector/activation model. In this paper the FIREDASS software package is described and the theory behind the fire and radiation sub-models is detailed. The fire model uses prescribed release rates for heat and gaseous combustion products to represent the fire load. Typical release rates have been determined through experimentation. The radiation model is a six-flux model coupled to the gas (and mist) phase. As part of the FIREDASS project, a detailed series of fire experiments were conducted in order to validate the fire model. Model predictions are compared with data from these experiments and good agreement is found.

The development and validation of computational MHD techniques for the modelling of metal production processes

Magnetic fields are used in a number of processes related to the extraction of metals, production of alloys and the shaping of metal components. Computational techniques have an increasingly important role to play in the simulation of such processes, since it is often difficult or very costly to conduct experiments in the high temperature conditions encountered and the complex interaction of fluid flow, heat transfer and magnetic fields means simple analytic models are often far removed from reality. In this paper an overview of the computational activity at the University of Greenwich is given in this area, covering the past ten years. The overview is given from the point of view of the modeller and within the space limitations imposed by the format it covers the numerical methods used, attempts at validation against experiments or analytic procedures; it highlights successes, but also some failures. A broad range of models is covered in the review (and accompanying lecture), used to simulate (a) A-C field applications: induction melting, magnetic confinement and levitation, casting and (b) D-C field applications such as: arc welding and aluminium electroloysis. Most of these processes involve phase change of the metal (melting or solidification), the presence of a dynamic free surface and turbulent flow. These issues affect accuracy and need to be address by the modeller.

Modeling of ingot development during the start-up phase of direct chill casting

Direct chill (DC) casting is a core primary process in the production of aluminum ingots. However, its operational optimization is still under investigation with regard to a number of features, one of which is the issue of curvature at the base of the ingot. Analysis of these features requires a computational model of the process that accounts for the fluid flow, heat transfer, solidification phase change, and thermomechanical analysis. This article describes an integrated approach to the modeling of all the preceding phenomena and their interactions.

Advanced evacuation simulation software and its use in warships

The newly formed Escape and Evacuation Naval Authority regulates the provision of abandonment equipment and procedures for all Ministry of Defence Vessels. As such, it assures that access routes on board are evaluated early in the design process to maximize their efficiency and to eliminate, as far as possible, any congestion that might occur during escape. This analysis can be undertaken using a computer-based simulation for given escape scenarios and replicates the layout of the vessel and the interactions between each individual and the ship structure. One such software tool that facilitates this type of analysis is maritimeEXODUS. This tool, through large scale testing and validation, emulates human shipboard behaviour during emergency scenarios; however it is largely based around the behaviour of civilian passengers and fixtures and fittings of merchant vessels. Hence there existed a clear requirement to understand the behaviour of well-trained naval personnel as opposed to civilian passengers and be able to model the fixtures and fittings that are exclusive to warships, thus allowing improvements to both maritimeEXODUS and other software products. Human factor trials using the Royal Navy training facilities at Whale Island, Portsmouth were recently undertaken to collect data that improves our understanding of the aforementioned differences. It is hoped that this data will form the basis of a long-term improvement package that will provide global validation of these simulation tools and assist in the development of specific Escape and Evacuation standards for warships. © 2005: Royal Institution of Naval Architects.

The development of parallel implementation for a CFD based fire field model utilising conventional office based PCs

Parallel processing techniques have been used in the past to provide high performance computing resources for activities such as fire-field modelling. This has traditionally been achieved using specialized hardware and software, the expense of which would be difficult to justify for many fire engineering practices. In this article we demonstrate how typical office-based PCs attached to a Local Area Network has the potential to offer the benefits of parallel processing with minimal costs associated with the purchase of additional hardware or software. It was found that good speedups could be achieved on homogeneous networks of PCs, for example a problem composed of ~100,000 cells would run 9.3 times faster on a network of 12 800MHz PCs than on a single 800MHz PC. It was also found that a network of eight 3.2GHz Pentium 4 PCs would run 7.04 times faster than a single 3.2GHz Pentium computer. A dynamic load balancing scheme was also devised to allow the effective use of the software on heterogeneous PC networks. This scheme also ensured that the impact between the parallel processing task and other computer users on the network was minimized.

Knowledge networks change during radical and incremental innovation episodes: a case study on software developmen

The role intra-organizational knowledge exchanges play in innovation processes has been widely acknowledged in the organizational literature. This paper contributes to the understanding of which specific configurations knowledge networks assume during different phases of radical and incremental innovation processes. The case study we selected is a FLOSS (Free/Libre Open Source Software) community consisting of 233 developers committed to the development of a web browser application since November 2002. By harvesting the mailing list, official blog and code repository of a FLOSS community, we investigate the patterns of knowledge exchange and individual contributions of its developers. We measure structural cohesion and compare global and local network properties at different points in time. Preliminary results show that phases of radical and incremental innovation are associated with specific configurations of the knowledge network as a whole as well as with different network positions of the core developers of the software.