RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Elucidation of hepatitis C virus transmission and early diversification by single genome sequencing.

A precise molecular identification of transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) genomes could illuminate key aspects of transmission biology, immunopathogenesis and natural history. We used single genome sequencing of 2,922 half or quarter genomes from plasma viral RNA to identify transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses in 17 subjects with acute community-acquired HCV infection. Sequences from 13 of 17 acute subjects, but none of 14 chronic controls, exhibited one or more discrete low diversity viral lineages. Sequences within each lineage generally revealed a star-like phylogeny of mutations that coalesced to unambiguous T/F viral genomes. Numbers of transmitted viruses leading to productive clinical infection were estimated to range from 1 to 37 or more (median = 4). Four acutely infected subjects showed a distinctly different pattern of virus diversity that deviated from a star-like phylogeny. In these cases, empirical analysis and mathematical modeling suggested high multiplicity virus transmission from individuals who themselves were acutely infected or had experienced a virus population bottleneck due to antiviral drug therapy. These results provide new quantitative and qualitative insights into HCV transmission, revealing for the first time virus-host interactions that successful vaccines or treatment interventions will need to overcome. Our findings further suggest a novel experimental strategy for identifying full-length T/F genomes for proteome-wide analyses of HCV biology and adaptation to antiviral drug or immune pressures.

A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses.

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.

Mechanisms of CD8+ T Cell Mediated Virus Inhibition in HIV-1 Virus Controllers

CD8+ T cells are associated with long term control of virus replication to low or undetectable levels in a population of HIV+ therapy-naïve individuals known as virus controllers (VCs; <5000 RNA copies/ml and CD4+ lymphocyte counts >400 cells/µl). These subjects' ability to control viremia in the absence of therapy makes them the gold standard for the type of CD8+ T-cell response that should be induced with a vaccine. Studying the regulation of CD8+ T cells responses in these VCs provides the opportunity to discover mechanisms of durable control of HIV-1. Previous research has shown that the CD8+ T cell population in VCs is heterogeneous in its ability to inhibit virus replication and distinct T cells are responsible for virus inhibition. Further defining both the functional properties and regulation of the specific features of the select CD8+ T cells responsible for potent control of viremia the in VCs would enable better evaluation of T cell-directed vaccine strategies and may inform the design of new therapies.

Here we discuss the progress made in elucidating the features and regulation of CD8+ T cell response in virus controllers. We first detail the development of assays to quantify CD8+ T cells' ability to inhibit virus replication. This includes the use of a multi-clade HIV-1 panel which can subsequently be used as a tool for evaluation of T cell directed vaccines. We used these assays to evaluate the CD8+ response among cohorts of HIV-1 seronegative, HIV-1 acutely infected, and HIV-1 chronically infected (both VC and chronic viremic) patients. Contact and soluble CD8+ T cell virus inhibition assays (VIAs) are able to distinguish these patient groups based on the presence and magnitude of the responses. When employed in conjunction with peptide stimulation, the soluble assay reveals peptide stimulation induces CD8+ T cell responses with a prevalence of Gag p24 and Nef specificity among the virus controllers tested. Given this prevalence, we aimed to determine the gene expression profile of Gag p24-, Nef-, and unstimulated CD8+ T cells. RNA was isolated from CD8+ T-cells from two virus controllers with strong virus inhibition and one seronegative donor after a 5.5 hour stimulation period then analyzed using the Illumina Human BeadChip platform (Duke Center for Human Genome Variation). Analysis revealed that 565 (242 Nef and 323 Gag) genes were differentially expressed in CD8+ T-cells that were able to inhibit virus replication compared to those that could not. We compared the differentially expressed genes to published data sets from other CD8+ T-cell effector function experiments focusing our analysis on the most recurring genes with immunological, gene regulatory, apoptotic or unknown functions. The most commonly identified gene in these studies was TNFRSF9. Using PCR in a larger cohort of virus controllers we confirmed the up-regulation of TNFRSF9 in Gag p24 and Nef-specific CD8+ T cell mediated virus inhibition. We also observed increase in the mRNA encoding antiviral cytokines macrophage inflammatory proteins (MIP-1α, MIP-1αP, MIP-1β), interferon gamma (IFN-γ), granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), and recently identified lymphotactin (XCL1).

Our previous work suggests the CD8+ T-cell response to HIV-1 can be regulated at the level of gene regulation. Because RNA abundance is modulated by transcription of new mRNAs and decay of new and existing RNA we aimed to evaluate the net rate of transcription and mRNA decay for the cytokines we identified as differentially regulated. To estimate rate of mRNA synthesis and decay, we stimulated isolated CD8+ T-cells with Gag p24 and Nef peptides adding 4-thiouridine (4SU) during the final hour of stimulation, allowing for separation of RNA made during the final hour of stimulation. Subsequent PCR of RNA isolated from these cells, allowed us to determine how much mRNA was made for our genes of interest during the final hour which we used to calculate rate of transcription. To assess if stimulation caused a change in RNA stability, we calculated the decay rates of these mRNA over time. In Gag p24 and Nef stimulated T cells , the abundance of the mRNA of many of the cytokines examined was dependent on changes in both transcription and mRNA decay with evidence for potential differences in the regulation of mRNA between Nef and Gag specific CD8+ T cells. The results were highly reproducible in that in one subject that was measured in three independent experiments the results were concordant.

This data suggests that mRNA stability, in addition to transcription, is key in regulating the direct anti-HIV-1 function of antigen-specific memory CD8+ T cells by enabling rapid recall of anti-HIV-1 effector functions, namely the production and increased stability of antiviral cytokines. We have started to uncover the mechanisms employed by CD8+ T cell subsets with antigen-specific anti-HIV-1 activity, in turn, enhancing our ability to inhibit virus replication by informing both cure strategies and HIV-1 vaccine designs that aim to reduce transmission and can aid in blocking HIV-1 acquisition.