The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Genome-wide association study of perioperative myocardial infarction after coronary artery bypass surgery.

OBJECTIVES: Identification of patient subpopulations susceptible to develop myocardial infarction (MI) or, conversely, those displaying either intrinsic cardioprotective phenotypes or highly responsive to protective interventions remain high-priority knowledge gaps. We sought to identify novel common genetic variants associated with perioperative MI in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting using genome-wide association methodology. SETTING: 107 secondary and tertiary cardiac surgery centres across the USA. PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a stage I genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 1433 ethnically diverse patients of both genders (112 cases/1321 controls) from the Genetics of Myocardial Adverse Outcomes and Graft Failure (GeneMAGIC) study, and a stage II analysis in an expanded population of 2055 patients (225 cases/1830 controls) combined from the GeneMAGIC and Duke Perioperative Genetics and Safety Outcomes (PEGASUS) studies. Patients undergoing primary non-emergent coronary bypass grafting were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome variable was perioperative MI, defined as creatine kinase MB isoenzyme (CK-MB) values ≥10× upper limit of normal during the first postoperative day, and not attributable to preoperative MI. Secondary outcomes included postoperative CK-MB as a quantitative trait, or a dichotomised phenotype based on extreme quartiles of the CK-MB distribution. RESULTS: Following quality control and adjustment for clinical covariates, we identified 521 single nucleotide polymorphisms in the stage I GWAS analysis. Among these, 8 common variants in 3 genes or intergenic regions met p<10(-5) in stage II. A secondary analysis using CK-MB as a quantitative trait (minimum p=1.26×10(-3) for rs609418), or a dichotomised phenotype based on extreme CK-MB values (minimum p=7.72×10(-6) for rs4834703) supported these findings. Pathway analysis revealed that genes harbouring top-scoring variants cluster in pathways of biological relevance to extracellular matrix remodelling, endoplasmic reticulum-to-Golgi transport and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Using a two-stage GWAS and pathway analysis, we identified and prioritised several potential susceptibility loci for perioperative MI.