4 resultados para trend following mean reversion

em Duke University


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Recent empirical findings suggest that the long-run dependence in U.S. stock market volatility is best described by a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. The present study complements this existing time-series-based evidence by comparing the risk-neutralized option pricing distributions from various ARCH-type formulations. Utilizing a panel data set consisting of newly created exchange traded long-term equity anticipation securities, or leaps, on the Standard and Poor's 500 stock market index with maturity times ranging up to three years, we find that the degree of mean reversion in the volatility process implicit in these prices is best described by a Fractionally Integrated EGARCH (FIEGARCH) model. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

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The purpose of this study was to identify the preoperative predictors of hospital length of stay after primary total knee arthroplasty in a patient population reflecting current trends toward shorter hospitalization and using readily obtainable factors that do not require scoring systems. A single-center, multi-surgeon retrospective chart review of two hundred and sixty consecutive patients who underwent primary total knee arthroplasty was performed. The mean length of stay was 3.0 days. Among the different variables studied, increasing comorbidities, lack of adequate assistance at home, and bilateral surgery were the only multivariable significant predictors of longer length of stay. The study was adequately powered for statistical analyses and the concordance index of the multivariable logistic regression model was 0.815.

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BACKGROUND: Development of hip adductor, tensor fascia lata, and rectus femoris muscle contractures following total hip arthroplasties are quite common, with some patients failing to improve despite treatment with a variety of non-operative modalities. The purpose of the present study was to describe the use of and patient outcomes of botulinum toxin injections as an adjunctive treatment for muscle tightness following total hip arthroplasty. METHODS: Ten patients (14 hips) who had hip adductor, abductor, and/or flexor muscle contractures following total arthroplasty and had been refractory to physical therapeutic efforts were treated with injection of botulinum toxin A. Eight limbs received injections into the adductor muscle, 8 limbs received injections into the tensor fascia lata muscle, and 2 limbs received injection into the rectus femoris muscle, followed by intensive physical therapy for 6 weeks. RESULTS: At a mean final follow-up of 20 months, all 14 hips had increased range in the affected arc of motion, with a mean improvement of 23 degrees (range, 10 to 45 degrees). Additionally all hips had an improvement in hip scores, with a significant increase in mean score from 74 points (range, 57 to 91 points) prior to injection to a mean of 96 points (range, 93 to 98) at final follow-up. There were no serious treatment-related adverse events. CONCLUSION: Botulinum toxin A injections combined with intensive physical therapy may be considered as a potential treatment modality, especially in difficult cases of muscle tightness that are refractory to standard therapy.

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BACKGROUND: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a risk factor for problematic cannabis use. However, clinical and anecdotal evidence suggest an increasingly popular perception that cannabis is therapeutic for ADHD, including via online resources. Given that the Internet is increasingly utilized as a source of healthcare information and may influence perceptions, we conducted a qualitative analysis of online forum discussions, also referred to as threads, on the effects of cannabis on ADHD to systematically characterize the content patients and caregivers may encounter about ADHD and cannabis. METHODS: A total of 268 separate forum threads were identified. Twenty percent (20%) were randomly selected, which yielded 55 separate forum threads (mean number of individual posts per forum thread = 17.53) scored by three raters (Cohen's kappa = 0.74). A final sample of 401 posts in these forum threads received at least one endorsement on predetermined topics following qualitative coding procedures. RESULTS: Twenty-five (25%) percent of individual posts indicated that cannabis is therapeutic for ADHD, as opposed to 8% that it is harmful, 5% that it is both therapeutic and harmful, and 2% that it has no effect on ADHD. This pattern was generally consistent when the year of each post was considered. The greater endorsement of therapeutic versus harmful effects of cannabis did not generalize to mood, other (non-ADHD) psychiatric conditions, or overall domains of daily life. Additional themes emerged (e.g., cannabis being considered sanctioned by healthcare providers). CONCLUSIONS: Despite that there are no clinical recommendations or systematic research supporting the beneficial effects of cannabis use for ADHD, online discussions indicate that cannabis is considered therapeutic for ADHD-this is the first study to identify such a trend. This type of online information could shape ADHD patient and caregiver perceptions, and influence cannabis use and clinical care.