Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Out-of-equilibrium dynamical fluctuations in glassy systems

"In this paper we extend the earlier treatment of out-of-equilibrium mesoscopic fluctuations in glassy systems in several significant ways. First, via extensive simulations, we demonstrate that models of glassy behavior without quenched disorder display scalings of the probability of local two-time correlators that are qualitatively similar to that of models with short-ranged quenched interactions. The key ingredient for such scaling properties is shown to be the development of a criticallike dynamical correlation length, and not other microscopic details. This robust data collapse may be described in terms of a time-evolving "extreme value" distribution. We develop a theory to describe both the form and evolution of these distributions based on a effective sigma model approach."

Essays on the Economics of Higher Education

At least since the seminal works of Jacob Mincer, labor economists have sought to understand how students make higher education investment decisions. Mincer’s original work seeks to understand how students decide how much education to accrue; subsequent work by various authors seeks to understand how students choose where to attend college, what field to major in, and whether to drop out of college.

Broadly speaking, this rich sub-field of literature contributes to society in two ways: First, it provides a better understanding of important social behaviors. Second, it helps policymakers anticipate the responses of students when evaluating various policy reforms.

While research on the higher education investment decisions of students has had an enormous impact on our understanding of society and has shaped countless education policies, students are only one interested party in the higher education landscape. In the jargon of economists, students represent only the `demand side’ of higher education---customers who are choosing options from a set of available alternatives. Opposite students are instructors and administrators who represent the `supply side’ of higher education---those who decide which options are available to students.

For similar reasons, it is also important to understand how individuals on the supply side of education make decisions: First, this provides a deeper understanding of the behaviors of important social institutions. Second, it helps policymakers anticipate the responses of instructors and administrators when evaluating various reforms. However, while there is substantial literature understanding decisions made on the demand side of education, there is far less attention paid to decisions on the supply side of education.

This dissertation uses empirical evidence to better understand how instructors and administrators make decisions and the implications of these decisions for students.

In the first chapter, I use data from Duke University and a Bayesian model of correlated learning to measure the signal quality of grades across academic fields. The correlated feature of the model allows grades in one academic field to signal ability in all other fields allowing me to measure both ‘own category' signal quality and ‘spillover' signal quality. Estimates reveal a clear division between information rich Science, Engineering, and Economics grades and less informative Humanities and Social Science grades. In many specifications, information spillovers are so powerful that precise Science, Engineering, and Economics grades are more informative about Humanities and Social Science abilities than Humanities and Social Science grades. This suggests students who take engineering courses during their Freshman year make more informed specialization decisions later in college.

In the second chapter, I use data from the University of Central Arkansas to understand how universities decide which courses to offer and how much to spend on instructors for these courses. Course offerings and instructor characteristics directly affect the courses students choose and the value they receive from these choices. This chapter reveals the university preferences over these student outcomes which best explain observed course offerings and instructors. This allows me to assess whether university incentives are aligned with students, to determine what alternative university choices would be preferred by students, and to illustrate how a revenue neutral tax/subsidy policy can induce a university to make these student-best decisions.

In the third chapter, co-authored with Thomas Ahn, Peter Arcidiacono, and Amy Hopson, we use data from the University of Kentucky to understand how instructors choose grading policies. In this chapter, we estimate an equilibrium model in which instructors choose grading policies and students choose courses and study effort given grading policies. In this model, instructors set both a grading intercept and a return on ability and effort. This builds a rich link between the grading policy decisions of instructors and the course choices of students. We use estimates of this model to infer what preference parameters best explain why instructors chose estimated grading policies. To illustrate the importance of these supply side decisions, we show changing grading policies can substantially reduce the gender gap in STEM enrollment.

Radiotherapy Assessment Using Diffusion Weighted MRI

Purpose: There are two goals of this study. The first goal of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using classic textural feature extraction in radiotherapy response assessment among a unique cohort of early stage breast cancer patients who received the single-dose preoperative radiotherapy. The second goal of this study is to investigate the clinical feasibility of using classic texture features as potential biomarkers which are supplementary to regional apparent diffusion coefficient in gynecological cancer radiotherapy response assessment.

Methods and Materials: For the breast cancer study, 15 patients with early stage breast cancer were enrolled in this retrospective study. Each patient received a single-fraction radiation treatment, and DWI and DCE-MRI scans were conducted before and after the radiotherapy. DWI scans were acquired using a spin-echo EPI sequence with diffusion weighting factors of b = 0 and b = 500 mm2/s, and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps were calculated. DCE-MRI scans were acquired using a T1-weighted 3D SPGR sequence with a temporal resolution of about 1 minute. The contrast agent (CA) was intravenously injected with a 0.1 mmol/kg bodyweight dose at 2 ml/s. Two parameters, volume transfer constant (Ktrans) and kep were analyzed using the two-compartment Tofts pharmacokinetic model. For pharmacokinetic parametric maps and ADC maps, 33 textural features were generated from the clinical target volume (CTV) in a 3D fashion using the classic gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCOM) and gray level run length matrix (GLRLM). Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to determine the significance of each texture feature’s change after the radiotherapy. The significance was set to 0.05 with Bonferroni correction.

For the gynecological cancer study, 12 female patients with gynecologic cancer treated with fractionated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) combined with high dose rate (HDR) intracavitary brachytherapy were studied. Each patient first received EBRT treatment followed by five fractions of HDR treatment. Before EBRT and before each fraction of brachytherapy, Diffusion Weighted MRI (DWI-MRI) and CT scans were acquired. DWI scans were acquired in sagittal plane utilizing a spin-echo echo-planar imaging sequence with weighting factors of b = 500 s/mm2 and b = 1000 s/mm2, one set of images of b = 0 s/mm2 were also acquired. ADC maps were calculated using linear least-square fitting method. Distributed diffusion coefficient (DDC) maps and stretching parameter α were calculated. For ADC and DDC maps, 33 classic texture features were generated utilizing the classic gray level run length matrix (GLRLM) and gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCOM) from high-risk clinical target volume (HR-CTV). Wilcoxon signed-rank statistics test was applied to determine the significance of each feature’s numerical value change after radiotherapy. Significance level was set to 0.05 with multi-comparison correction if applicable.

Results: For the breast cancer study, regarding ADC maps calculated from DWI-MRI, 24 out of 33 CTV features changed significantly after the radiotherapy. For DCE-MRI pharmacokinetic parameters, all 33 CTV features of Ktrans and 33 features of kep changed significantly.

For the gynecological cancer study, regarding ADC maps, 28 out of 33 HR-CTV texture features showed significant changes after the EBRT treatment. 28 out of 33 HR-CTV texture features indicated significant changes after HDR treatments. The texture features that indicated significant changes after HDR treatments are the same as those after EBRT treatment. 28 out of 33 HR-CTV texture features showed significant changes after whole radiotherapy treatment process. The texture features that indicated significant changes for the whole treatment process are the same as those after HDR treatments.

Conclusion: Initial results indicate that certain classic texture features are sensitive to radiation-induced changes. Classic texture features with significant numerical changes can be used in monitoring radiotherapy effect. This might suggest that certain texture features might be used as biomarkers which are supplementary to ADC and DDC for assessment of radiotherapy response in breast cancer and gynecological cancer.

Pairing QuantiFERON gold in-tube with opt-out HIV testing in a tuberculosis contact investigation in the Southeastern United States.

Knowing one's HIV status is particularly important in the setting of recent tuberculosis (TB) exposure. Blood tests for assessment of tuberculosis infection, such as the QuantiFERON Gold in-tube test (QFT; Cellestis Limited, Carnegie, Victoria, Australia), offer the possibility of simultaneous screening for TB and HIV with a single blood draw. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of all contacts to a highly infectious TB case in a large meatpacking factory. Twenty-two percent were foreign-born and 73% were black. Contacts were tested with both tuberculin skin testing (TST) and QFT. HIV testing was offered on an opt-out basis. Persons with TST >or=10 mm, positive QFT, and/or positive HIV test were offered latent TB treatment. Three hundred twenty-six contacts were screened: TST results were available for 266 people and an additional 24 reported a prior positive TST for a total of 290 persons with any TST result (89.0%). Adequate QFT specimens were obtained for 312 (95.7%) of persons. Thirty-two persons had QFT results but did not return for TST reading. Twenty-two percent met the criteria for latent TB infection. Eighty-eight percent accepted HIV testing. Two (0.7%) were HIV seropositive; both individuals were already aware of their HIV status, but one had stopped care a year previously. None of the HIV-seropositive persons had latent TB, but all were offered latent TB treatment per standard guidelines. This demonstrates that opt-out HIV testing combined with QFT in a large TB contact investigation was feasible and useful. HIV testing was also widely accepted. Pairing QFT with opt-out HIV testing should be strongly considered when possible.

Enhanced rewarding properties of morphine, but not cocaine, in beta(arrestin)-2 knock-out mice.

The reinforcing and psychomotor effects of morphine involve opiate stimulation of the dopaminergic system via activation of mu-opioid receptors (muOR). Both mu-opioid and dopamine receptors are members of the G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) family of proteins. GPCRs are known to undergo desensitization involving phosphorylation of the receptor and the subsequent binding of beta(arrestins), which prevents further receptor-G-protein coupling. Mice lacking beta(arrestin)-2 (beta(arr2)) display enhanced sensitivity to morphine in tests of pain perception attributable to impaired desensitization of muOR. However, whether abrogating muOR desensitization affects the reinforcing and psychomotor properties of morphine has remained unexplored. In the present study, we examined this question by assessing the effects of morphine and cocaine on locomotor activity, behavioral sensitization, conditioned place preference, and striatal dopamine release in beta(arr2) knock-out (beta(arr2)-KO) mice and their wild-type (WT) controls. Cocaine treatment resulted in very similar neurochemical and behavioral responses between the genotypes. However, in the beta(arr2)-KO mice, morphine induced more pronounced increases in striatal extracellular dopamine than in WT mice. Moreover, the rewarding properties of morphine in the conditioned place preference test were greater in the beta(arr2)-KO mice when compared with the WT mice. Thus, beta(arr2) appears to play a more important role in the dopaminergic effects mediated by morphine than those induced by cocaine.

Hemostatic assessment, treatment strategies, and hematology consultation in massive postpartum hemorrhage: results of a quantitative survey of obstetrician-gynecologists.

OBJECTIVE: To assess potential diagnostic and practice barriers to successful management of massive postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), emphasizing recognition and management of contributing coagulation disorders. STUDY DESIGN: A quantitative survey was conducted to assess practice patterns of US obstetrician-gynecologists in managing massive PPH, including assessment of coagulation. RESULTS: Nearly all (98%) of the 50 obstetrician-gynecologists participating in the survey reported having encountered at least one patient with "massive" PPH in the past 5 years. Approximately half (52%) reported having previously discovered an underlying bleeding disorder in a patient with PPH, with disseminated intravascular coagulation (88%, n=23/26) being identified more often than von Willebrand disease (73%, n=19/26). All reported having used methylergonovine and packed red blood cells in managing massive PPH, while 90% reported performing a hysterectomy. A drop in blood pressure and ongoing visible bleeding were the most commonly accepted indications for rechecking a "stat" complete blood count and coagulation studies, respectively, in patients with PPH; however, 4% of respondents reported that they would not routinely order coagulation studies. Forty-two percent reported having never consulted a hematologist for massive PPH. CONCLUSION: The survey findings highlight potential areas for improved practice in managing massive PPH, including earlier and more consistent assessment, monitoring of coagulation studies, and consultation with a hematologist.

MRI-Guided Radiation Therapy: Investigating the Accuracy of Treatment Delivery

Purpose: To develop, evaluate and apply a novel high-resolution 3D remote dosimetry protocol for validation of MRI guided radiation therapy treatments (MRIdian® by ViewRay®). We demonstrate the first application of the protocol (including two small but required new correction terms) utilizing radiochromic 3D plastic PRESAGE® with optical-CT readout.

Methods: A detailed study of PRESAGE® dosimeters (2kg) was conducted to investigate the temporal and spatial stability of radiation induced optical density change (ΔOD) over 8 days. Temporal stability was investigated on 3 dosimeters irradiated with four equally-spaced square 6MV fields delivering doses between 10cGy and 300cGy. Doses were imaged (read-out) by optical-CT at multiple intervals. Spatial stability of ΔOD response was investigated on 3 other dosimeters irradiated uniformly with 15MV extended-SSD fields with doses of 15cGy, 30cGy and 60cGy. Temporal and spatial (radial) changes were investigated using CERR and MATLAB’s Curve Fitting Tool-box. A protocol was developed to extrapolate measured ΔOD readings at t=48hr (the typical shipment time in remote dosimetry) to time t=1hr.

Results: All dosimeters were observed to gradually darken with time (<5% per day). Consistent intra-batch sensitivity (0.0930±0.002 ΔOD/cm/Gy) and linearity (R2=0.9996) was observed at t=1hr. A small radial effect (<3%) was observed, attributed to curing thermodynamics during manufacture. The refined remote dosimetry protocol (including polynomial correction terms for temporal and spatial effects, CT and CR) was then applied to independent dosimeters irradiated with MR-IGRT treatments. Excellent line profile agreement and 3D-gamma results for 3%/3mm, 10% threshold were observed, with an average passing rate 96.5%± 3.43%.

Conclusion: A novel 3D remote dosimetry protocol is presented capable of validation of advanced radiation treatments (including MR-IGRT). The protocol uses 2kg radiochromic plastic dosimeters read-out by optical-CT within a week of treatment. The protocol requires small corrections for temporal and spatially-dependent behaviors observed between irradiation and readout.