Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Decoding an olfactory mechanism of kin recognition and inbreeding avoidance in a primate.

BACKGROUND: Like other vertebrates, primates recognize their relatives, primarily to minimize inbreeding, but also to facilitate nepotism. Although associative, social learning is typically credited for discrimination of familiar kin, discrimination of unfamiliar kin remains unexplained. As sex-biased dispersal in long-lived species cannot consistently prevent encounters between unfamiliar kin, inbreeding remains a threat and mechanisms to avoid it beg explanation. Using a molecular approach that combined analyses of biochemical and microsatellite markers in 17 female and 19 male ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta), we describe odor-gene covariance to establish the feasibility of olfactory-mediated kin recognition. RESULTS: Despite derivation from different genital glands, labial and scrotal secretions shared about 170 of their respective 338 and 203 semiochemicals. In addition, these semiochemicals encoded information about genetic relatedness within and between the sexes. Although the sexes showed opposite seasonal patterns in signal complexity, the odor profiles of related individuals (whether same-sex or mixed-sex dyads) converged most strongly in the competitive breeding season. Thus, a strong, mutual olfactory signal of genetic relatedness appeared specifically when such information would be crucial for preventing inbreeding. That weaker signals of genetic relatedness might exist year round could provide a mechanism to explain nepotism between unfamiliar kin. CONCLUSION: We suggest that signal convergence between the sexes may reflect strong selective pressures on kin recognition, whereas signal convergence within the sexes may arise as its by-product or function independently to prevent competition between unfamiliar relatives. The link between an individual's genome and its olfactory signals could be mediated by biosynthetic pathways producing polymorphic semiochemicals or by carrier proteins modifying the individual bouquet of olfactory cues. In conclusion, we unveil a possible olfactory mechanism of kin recognition that has specific relevance to understanding inbreeding avoidance and nepotistic behavior observed in free-ranging primates, and broader relevance to understanding the mechanisms of vertebrate olfactory communication.

Collective action and individual choice: rethinking how we regulate narcotics and antibiotics.

Governments across the globe have squandered treasure and imprisoned millions of their own citizens by criminalising the use and sale of recreational drugs. But use of these drugs has remained relatively constant, and the primary victims are the users themselves. Meanwhile, antimicrobial drugs that once had the power to cure infections are losing their ability to do so, compromising the health of people around the world. The thesis of this essay is that policymakers should stop wasting resources trying to fight an unwinnable and morally dubious war against recreational drug users, and start shifting their attention to the serious threat posed by our collective misuse of antibiotics.

A neural biomarker of psychological vulnerability to future life stress.

We all experience a host of common life stressors such as the death of a family member, medical illness, and financial uncertainty. While most of us are resilient to such stressors, continuing to function normally, for a subset of individuals, experiencing these stressors increases the likelihood of developing treatment-resistant, chronic psychological problems, including depression and anxiety. It is thus paramount to identify predictive markers of risk, particularly those reflecting fundamental biological processes that can be targets for intervention and prevention. Using data from a longitudinal study of 340 healthy young adults, we demonstrate that individual differences in threat-related amygdala reactivity predict psychological vulnerability to life stress occurring as much as 1 to 4 years later. These results highlight a readily assayed biomarker, threat-related amygdala reactivity, which predicts psychological vulnerability to commonly experienced stressors and represents a discrete target for intervention and prevention.

Later Life Consequences of Subteratogenic Exposure to a Complex PAH Mixture in the Atlantic Killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus)

Subteratogenic and other low-level chronic exposures to toxicant mixtures are an understudied threat to environmental and human health. It is especially important to understand the effects of these exposures for contaminants, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) a large group of more than 100 individual compounds, which are important environmental (including aquatic) contaminants. Aquatic sediments constitute a major sink for hydrophobic pollutants, and studies show PAHs can persist in sediments over time. Furthermore, estuarine systems (namely breeding grounds) are of particular concern, as they are highly impacted by a wide variety of pollutants, and estuarine fishes are often exposed to some of the highest levels of contaminants of any vertebrate taxon. Acute embryonic exposure to PAHs results in cardiac teratogenesis in fish, and early life exposure to certain individual PAHs and PAH mixtures cause heart alterations with decreased swimming capacity in adult fish. Consequently, the heart and cardiorespiratory system are thought to be targets of PAH mixture exposure. While many studies have investigated acute, teratogenic PAH exposures, few studies have longitudinally examined the impacts of subtle, subteratogenic PAH mixture exposures, which are arguably more broadly applicable to environmental contamination scenarios. The goal of this dissertation was to highlight the later-life consequences of early-life exposure to subteratogenic concentrations of a complex, environmentally relevant PAH mixture.

A unique population of Fundulus heteroclitus (the Atlantic killifish or mummichog, hereafter referred to as killifish), has adapted to creosote-based polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) found at the Atlantic Wood Industries (AW) Superfund site in the southern branch of the Elizabeth River, VA, USA. This killifish population survives in a site heavily contaminated with a mixture of PAHs from former creosote operations. They have developed resistance to the acute toxicity and teratogenic effects caused by the mixture of PAHs in sediment from the site. The primary goal of this dissertation was to compare and contrast later-life outcomes of early-life, subteratogenic PAH mixture exposure in both the Atlantic Wood killifish (AW) and a naïve reference population of killifish from King’s Creek (KC; a relatively uncontaminated tributary of the Severn River, VA). Killifish from both populations were exposed to subteratogenic concentrations of a complex PAH-sediment extract, Elizabeth River Sediment Extract (ERSE), made by collecting sediment from the AW site. Fish were reared over a 5-month period in the laboratory, during which they were examined for a variety of molecular, physiological and behavioral responses.

The central aims of my dissertation were to determine alterations to embryonic gene expression, larval swimming activity, adult behavior, heart structure, enzyme activity, and swimming/cardiorespiratory performance following subteratogenic exposure to ERSE. I hypothesized that subteratogenic exposure to ERSE would impair cardiac ontogenic processes in a way that would be detectable via gene expression in embryos, and that the misregulation of cardiac genes would help to explain activity changes, behavioral deficits, and later-life swimming deficiencies. I also hypothesized that fish heart structure would be altered. In addition, I hypothesized that the AW killifish population would be resistant to developmental exposures and perform normally in later life challenges. To investigate these hypotheses, a series of experiments were carried out in PAH-adapted killifish from Elizabeth River and in reference killifish. As an ancillary project to the primary aims of the dissertation, I examined the toxicity of weaker aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) agonists in combination with fluoranthene (FL), an inhibitor of cytochrome P4501A1 (CYP1A1). This side project was conducted in both Danio rerio (zebrafish) and the KC and AW killifish.

Embryonic gene expression was measured in both killifish populations over an ERSE dose response with multiple time points (12, 24, 48, and 144 hours post exposure). Genes known to play critical roles in cardiac structure/development, cardiac function, and angiogenesis were elevated, indicating cardiac damage and activation of cardiovascular repair mechanisms. These data helped to inform later-life swimming performance and cardiac histology studies. Behavior was assessed during light and dark cycles in larvae of both populations following developmental exposure to ERSE. While KC killifish showed activity differences following exposure, AW killifish showed no significant changes even at concentrations that would cause overt cardiac toxicity in KC killifish. Juvenile behavior experiments demonstrated hyperactivity following ERSE exposure in KC killifish, but no significant behavioral changes in AW killifish. Adult swimming performance via prolonged critical swimming capacity (Ucrit) demonstrated performance costs in the AW killifish. Furthermore, swimming performance decline was observed in KC killifish following exposure to increasing dilutions of ERSE. Lastly, cardiac histology suggested that early-life exposure to ERSE could result in cardiac structural alteration and extravasation of blood into the pericardial cavity.

Responses to AHR agonists resulted in a ranking of relative potency for agonists, and determined which agonists, when combined with FL, caused cardiac teratogenesis. These experiments showed interesting species differences for zebrafish and killifish. To probe mechanisms responsible for cardiotoxicity, a CYP1A-morpholino and a AHR2-morpholino were used to mimic FL effects or attempt to rescue cardiac deformities respectively. Findings suggested that the cardiac toxicity elicited by weak agonist + FL exposure was likely driven by AHR-independent mechanisms. These studies stand in contrast to previous research from our lab showing that moderate AHR agonist + FL caused cardiac toxicity that can be partially rescued by AHR-morpholino knockdown.

My findings will form better characterization of mechanisms of PAH toxicity, and advance our understanding of how subteratogenic mixtures of PAHs exert their toxic action in naïve killifish. Furthermore, these studies will provide a framework for investigating how subteratogenic exposures to PAH mixtures can impact aquatic organismal health and performance. Most importantly, these experiments have the potential to help inform risk assessment in fish, mammals, and potentially humans. Ultimately, this research will help protect populations exposed to subtle PAH-contamination.

Fear learning circuitry is biased toward generalization of fear associations in posttraumatic stress disorder.

Fear conditioning is an established model for investigating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, symptom triggers may vaguely resemble the initial traumatic event, differing on a variety of sensory and affective dimensions. We extended the fear-conditioning model to assess generalization of conditioned fear on fear processing neurocircuitry in PTSD. Military veterans (n=67) consisting of PTSD (n=32) and trauma-exposed comparison (n=35) groups underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during fear conditioning to a low fear-expressing face while a neutral face was explicitly unreinforced. Stimuli that varied along a neutral-to-fearful continuum were presented before conditioning to assess baseline responses, and after conditioning to assess experience-dependent changes in neural activity. Compared with trauma-exposed controls, PTSD patients exhibited greater post-study memory distortion of the fear-conditioned stimulus toward the stimulus expressing the highest fear intensity. PTSD patients exhibited biased neural activation toward high-intensity stimuli in fusiform gyrus (P<0.02), insula (P<0.001), primary visual cortex (P<0.05), locus coeruleus (P<0.04), thalamus (P<0.01), and at the trend level in inferior frontal gyrus (P=0.07). All regions except fusiform were moderated by childhood trauma. Amygdala-calcarine (P=0.01) and amygdala-thalamus (P=0.06) functional connectivity selectively increased in PTSD patients for high-intensity stimuli after conditioning. In contrast, amygdala-ventromedial prefrontal cortex (P=0.04) connectivity selectively increased in trauma-exposed controls compared with PTSD patients for low-intensity stimuli after conditioning, representing safety learning. In summary, fear generalization in PTSD is biased toward stimuli with higher emotional intensity than the original conditioned-fear stimulus. Functional brain differences provide a putative neurobiological model for fear generalization whereby PTSD symptoms are triggered by threat cues that merely resemble the index trauma.