Application description and policy model in collaborative environment for sharing of information on epidemiological and clinical research data sets.

BACKGROUND: Sharing of epidemiological and clinical data sets among researchers is poor at best, in detriment of science and community at large. The purpose of this paper is therefore to (1) describe a novel Web application designed to share information on study data sets focusing on epidemiological clinical research in a collaborative environment and (2) create a policy model placing this collaborative environment into the current scientific social context. METHODOLOGY: The Database of Databases application was developed based on feedback from epidemiologists and clinical researchers requiring a Web-based platform that would allow for sharing of information about epidemiological and clinical study data sets in a collaborative environment. This platform should ensure that researchers can modify the information. A Model-based predictions of number of publications and funding resulting from combinations of different policy implementation strategies (for metadata and data sharing) were generated using System Dynamics modeling. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The application allows researchers to easily upload information about clinical study data sets, which is searchable and modifiable by other users in a wiki environment. All modifications are filtered by the database principal investigator in order to maintain quality control. The application has been extensively tested and currently contains 130 clinical study data sets from the United States, Australia, China and Singapore. Model results indicated that any policy implementation would be better than the current strategy, that metadata sharing is better than data-sharing, and that combined policies achieve the best results in terms of publications. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our empirical observations and resulting model, the social network environment surrounding the application can assist epidemiologists and clinical researchers contribute and search for metadata in a collaborative environment, thus potentially facilitating collaboration efforts among research communities distributed around the globe.

Qualitative analysis of the interdisciplinary interaction between data analysis specialists and novice clinical researchers.

BACKGROUND: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of "what if" situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.

So different, yet so similar: meta-analysis and policy modeling of willingness to participate in clinical trials among Brazilians and Indians.

BACKGROUND: With the global expansion of clinical trials and the expectations of the rise of the emerging economies known as BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the understanding of factors that affect the willingness to participate in clinical trials of patients from those countries assumes a central role in the future of health research. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) of willingness to participate in clinical trials among Brazilian patients and then we compared it with Indian patients (with results of another SRMA previously conducted by our group) through a system dynamics model. RESULTS: Five studies were included in the SRMA of Brazilian patients. Our main findings are 1) the major motivation for Brazilian patients to participate in clinical trials is altruism, 2) monetary reimbursement is the least important factor motivating Brazilian patients, 3) the major barrier for Brazilian patients to not participate in clinical trials is the fear of side effects, and 4) Brazilian patients are more likely willing to participate in clinical trials than Indians. CONCLUSION: Our study provides important insights for investigators and sponsors for planning trials in Brazil (and India) in the future. Ignoring these results may lead to unnecessary fund/time spending. More studies are needed to validate our results and for better understanding of this poorly studied theme.

Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. METHODS: The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. RESULTS: Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8-22 residents per year is required, 17-21 under the current policy scenario, 14-18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18-23 residents per year is required. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore's aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists.

Dynamics of the Disk-Pendulum Coupled System With Vertical Excitation

This paper investigates the static and dynamic characteristics of the semi-elliptical rocking disk on which a pendulum pinned. This coupled system’s response is also analyzed analytically and numerically when a vertical harmonic excitation is applied to the bottom of the rocking disk. Lagrange’s Equation is used to derive the motion equations of the disk-pendulum coupled system. The second derivative test for the system’s potential energy shows how the location of the pendulum’s pivotal point affects the number and stability of equilibria, and the change of location presents different bifurcation diagrams for different geometries of the rocking disk. For both vertically excited and unforced cases, the coupled system shows chaos easily, but the proper chosen parameters can still help the system reach and keep the steady state. For the steady state of the vertically excited rocking disk without a pendulum, the variation of the excitation’s amplitude and frequency result in the hysteresis for the amplitude of the response. When a pendulum is pinned on the rocking disk, three major categories of steady states are presently in the numerical way.

The Effects of Geography, Environment and Phylogeny on Community Assembly and Gene Flow Dynamics

It is increasingly evident that evolutionary processes play a role in how ecological communities are assembled. However the extend to which evolution influences how plants respond to spatial and environmental gradients and interact with each other is less clear. In this dissertation I leverage evolutionary tools and thinking to understand how space and environment affect community composition and patterns of gene flow in a unique system of Atlantic rainforest and restinga (sandy coastal plains) habitats in Southeastern Brazil.

In chapter one I investigate how space and environment affect the population genetic structure and gene flow of Aechmea nudicaulis, a bromeliad species that co-occurs in forest and restinga habitats. I genotyped seven microsatellite loci and sequenced one chloroplast DNA region for individuals collected in 7 pairs of forest / restinga sites. Bayesian genetic clustering analyses show that populations of A. nudicaulis are geographically structured in northern and southern populations, a pattern consistent with broader scale phylogeographic dynamics of the Atlantic rainforest. On the other hand, explicit migration models based on the coalescent estimate that inter-habitat gene flow is less common than gene flow between populations in the same habitat type, despite their geographic discontinuity. I conclude that there is evidence for repeated colonization of the restingas from forest populations even though the steep environmental gradient between habitats is a stronger barrier to gene flow than geographic distance.

In chapter two I use data on 2800 individual plants finely mapped in a restinga plot and on first-year survival of 500 seedlings to understand the roles of phylogeny, functional traits and abiotic conditions in the spatial structuring of that community. I demonstrate that phylogeny is a poor predictor of functional traits in and that convergence in these traits is pervasive. In general, the community is not phylogenetically structured, with at best 14% of the plots deviating significantly from the null model. The functional traits SLA, leaf dry matter content (LDMC), and maximum height also showed no clear pattern of spatial structuring. On the other hand, leaf area is strongly overdispersed across all spatial scales. Although leaf area overdispersion would be generally taken as evidence of competition, I argue that interpretation is probably misleading. Finally, I show that seedling survival is dramatically increased when they grow shaded by an adult individual, suggesting that seedlings are being facilitated. Phylogenetic distance to their adult neighbor has no influence on rates of survival though. Taken together, these results indicate that phylogeny has very limited influence on the fine scale assembly of restinga communities.

In vitro fluid dynamics of the Ahmed glaucoma valve modified with expanded polytetrafluoroethylene.

PURPOSE: Long-term intraocular pressure reduction by glaucoma drainage devices (GDDs) is often limited by the fibrotic capsule that forms around them. Prior work demonstrates that modifying a GDD with a porous membrane promotes a vascularized and more permeable capsule. This work examines the in vitro fluid dynamics of the Ahmed valve after enclosing the outflow tract with a porous membrane of expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The control and modified Ahmed implants (termed porous retrofitted implant with modified enclosure or PRIME-Ahmed) were submerged in saline and gelatin and perfused in a system that monitored flow (Q) and pressure (P). Flow rates of 1-50 μl/min were applied and steady state pressure recorded. Resistance was calculated by dividing pressure by flow. RESULTS: Modifying the Ahmed valve implant outflow with expanded ePTFE increased pressure and resistance. Pressure at a flow of 2 μl/min was increased in the PRIME-Ahmed (11.6 ± 1.5 mm Hg) relative to the control implant (6.5 ± 1.2 mm Hg). Resistance at a flow of 2 μl/min was increased in the PRIME-Ahmed (5.8 ± 0.8 mm Hg/μl/min) when compared to the control implant (3.2 ± 0.6 mm Hg/μl/min). CONCLUSIONS: Modifying the outflow tract of the Ahmed valve with a porous membrane adds resistance that decreases with increasing flow. The Ahmed valve implant behaves as a variable resistor. It is partially open at low pressures and provides reduced resistance at physiologic flow rates.

Dramatic variability of the carbonate system at a temperate coastal ocean site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) is regulated by physical and biogeochemical processes on multiple timescales.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification.