Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

High-fidelity, broadband stimulated-Brillouin-scattering-based slow light using fast noise modulation.

We demonstrate a 5-GHz-broadband tunable slow-light device based on stimulated Brillouin scattering in a standard highly-nonlinear optical fiber pumped by a noise-current-modulated laser beam. The noisemodulation waveform uses an optimized pseudo-random distribution of the laser drive voltage to obtain an optimal flat-topped gain profile, which minimizes the pulse distortion and maximizes pulse delay for a given pump power. In comparison with a previous slow-modulation method, eye-diagram and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analysis show that this broadband slow-light technique significantly increases the fidelity of a delayed data sequence, while maintaining the delay performance. A fractional delay of 0.81 with a SNR of 5.2 is achieved at the pump power of 350 mW using a 2-km-long highly nonlinear fiber with the fast noise-modulation method, demonstrating a 50% increase in eye-opening and a 36% increase in SNR in the comparison.