Postoperative statin use and risk of biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy: results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of statin use after radical prostatectomy (RP) on biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with prostate cancer who never received statins before RP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1146 RP patients within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to examine differences in risk of BCR between post-RP statin users vs nonusers. To account for varying start dates and duration of statin use during follow-up, post-RP statin use was treated as a time-dependent variable. In a secondary analysis, models were stratified by race to examine the association of post-RP statin use with BCR among black and non-black men. RESULTS: After adjusting for clinical and pathological characteristics, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with 36% reduced risk of BCR (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.87; P = 0.004). Post-RP statin use remained associated with reduced risk of BCR after adjusting for preoperative serum cholesterol levels. In secondary analysis, after stratification by race, this protective association was significant in non-black (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.32-0.75; P = 0.001) but not black men (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.53-1.28; P = 0.384). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective cohort of men undergoing RP, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with reduced risk of BCR. Whether the association between post-RP statin use and BCR differs by race requires further study. Given these findings, coupled with other studies suggesting that statins may reduce risk of advanced prostate cancer, randomised controlled trials are warranted to formally test the hypothesis that statins slow prostate cancer progression.

Cross-Domain Multitask Learning with Latent Probit Models

Learning multiple tasks across heterogeneous domains is a challenging problem since the feature space may not be the same for different tasks. We assume the data in multiple tasks are generated from a latent common domain via sparse domain transforms and propose a latent probit model (LPM) to jointly learn the domain transforms, and the shared probit classifier in the common domain. To learn meaningful task relatedness and avoid over-fitting in classification, we introduce sparsity in the domain transforms matrices, as well as in the common classifier. We derive theoretical bounds for the estimation error of the classifier in terms of the sparsity of domain transforms. An expectation-maximization algorithm is derived for learning the LPM. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on several real datasets.

A comparison of dimensional models of emotion: evidence from emotions, prototypical events, autobiographical memories, and words.

The intensity and valence of 30 emotion terms, 30 events typical of those emotions, and 30 autobiographical memories cued by those emotions were each rated by different groups of 40 undergraduates. A vector model gave a consistently better account of the data than a circumplex model, both overall and in the absence of high-intensity, neutral valence stimuli. The Positive Activation - Negative Activation (PANA) model could be tested at high levels of activation, where it is identical to the vector model. The results replicated when ratings of arousal were used instead of ratings of intensity for the events and autobiographical memories. A reanalysis of word norms gave further support for the vector and PANA models by demonstrating that neutral valence, high-arousal ratings resulted from the averaging of individual positive and negative valence ratings. Thus, compared to a circumplex model, vector and PANA models provided overall better fits.

Contrasting Models of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Reply to Monroe and Mineka (2008)

The authors address the 4 main points in S. M. Monroe and S. Mineka's (2008) comment. First, the authors show that the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis includes an etiology and that it is based on a theoretical model with a distinguished history in psychology and psychiatry. Two tenets of this theoretical model are that voluntary (strategic) recollections of the trauma are fragmented and incomplete while involuntary (spontaneous) recollections are vivid and persistent and yield privileged access to traumatic material. Second, the authors describe differences between their model and other cognitive models of PTSD. They argue that these other models share the same 2 tenets as the diagnosis and show that these 2 tenets are largely unsupported by empirical evidence. Third, the authors counter arguments about the strength of the evidence favoring the mnemonic model. Fourth, they show that concerns about the causal role of memory in PTSD are based on views of causality that are generally inappropriate for the explanation of PTSD in the social and biological sciences. © 2008 American Psychological Association.

Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared

Using the wisdom of crowds---combining many individual forecasts to obtain an aggregate estimate---can be an effective technique for improving forecast accuracy. When individual forecasts are drawn from independent and identical information sources, a simple average provides the optimal crowd forecast. However, correlated forecast errors greatly limit the ability of the wisdom of crowds to recover the truth. In practice, this dependence often emerges because information is shared: forecasters may to a large extent draw on the same data when formulating their responses.

To address this problem, I propose an elicitation procedure in which each respondent is asked to provide both their own best forecast and a guess of the average forecast that will be given by all other respondents. I study optimal responses in a stylized information setting and develop an aggregation method, called pivoting, which separates individual forecasts into shared and private information and then recombines these results in the optimal manner. I develop a tailored pivoting procedure for each of three information models, and introduce a simple and robust variant that outperforms the simple average across a variety of settings.

In three experiments, I investigate the method and the accuracy of the crowd forecasts. In the first study, I vary the shared and private information in a controlled environment, while the latter two studies examine forecasts in real-world contexts. Overall, the data suggest that a simple minimal pivoting procedure provides an effective aggregation technique that can significantly outperform the crowd average.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Screening for Sexual Trauma, Intimate Partner Violence and Mental Health Symptoms among HIV Positive South African Women

Background: The psychological sequelae of sexual trauma and physical intimate partner violence (IPV) exposure can lead to poor HIV care outcomes, including poor treatment adherence. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of and factors associated with mental health symptoms and trauma among HIV positive women. Additionally, the study aimed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of screening for trauma and mental health symptoms among HIV positive South African women. Finally, the study aimed to elicit healthcare workers’ perceptions related to sexual trauma and the provision of care and services for HIV positive women with trauma histories.

Methods: The study utilized a mixed-methods approach that included a cross-sectional survey of 70 HIV positive women recruited through referral sampling and key informant interviews with seven healthcare workers (HCWs). A study-screening instrument consisting of 24 items from standard measures was used to screen women for sexual trauma, physical intimate partner violence (IPV), depression and PTSD. Sexual trauma and IPV were assessed across the lifetime, while depression and PTSD were current assessments. Logistic regression models were used to explore the relationship between trauma exposure and mental health symptoms, while controlling for age and education. Interview transcripts were coded and analyzed for emergent themes on HCWs perceptions on sexual trauma and HIV care.

Results: Among participants, 51% had sexual trauma experience and 75% had intimate partner violence (IPV) experience. Among participants, 36% met screening criteria for major depression; among those with traumatic experiences (n=57), 70% met screening criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Compared to having no sexual trauma or IPV exposure, having both sexual trauma and IPV was significantly associated with higher odds of depression (OR = 8.11; 95% CI 1.48-44.34), while having either IPV or sexual trauma individually was not significantly associated with increased odds of depression. Compared to having either IPV or sexual trauma, having both sexual trauma and IPV was not significantly associated with PTSD. Responses from participants’ feedback on screening process suggest that screening was feasible and acceptable to participants. Some of the health care workers (HCWs) did not perceive dealing with trauma to be part of their duties, but instead viewed social workers or psychologists as the appropriate health cadre to provide care related to trauma and mental health.

Conclusions: High levels of sexual trauma, IPV and mental health distress were reported among HIV positive women in this setting. Screening for trauma and mental health symptoms was acceptable to the participants, but several challenges were encountered in implementing screening. Given the potential impact of trauma and mental health on HIV care engagement, interventions to address trauma and its psychological sequelae are needed.