Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Same-sex gaze attraction influences mate-choice copying in humans.

Mate-choice copying occurs when animals rely on the mating choices of others to inform their own mating decisions. The proximate mechanisms underlying mate-choice copying remain unknown. To address this question, we tracked the gaze of men and women as they viewed a series of photographs in which a potential mate was pictured beside an opposite-sex partner; the participants then indicated their willingness to engage in a long-term relationship with each potential mate. We found that both men and women expressed more interest in engaging in a relationship with a potential mate if that mate was paired with an attractive partner. Men and women's attention to partners varied with partner attractiveness and this gaze attraction influenced their subsequent mate choices. These results highlight the prevalence of non-independent mate choice in humans and implicate social attention and reward circuitry in these decisions.

Sexually coercive male chimpanzees sire more offspring.

In sexually reproducing animals, male and female reproductive strategies often conflict. In some species, males use aggression to overcome female choice, but debate persists over the extent to which this strategy is successful. Previous studies of male aggression toward females among wild chimpanzees have yielded contradictory results about the relationship between aggression and mating behavior. Critically, however, copulation frequency in primates is not always predictive of reproductive success. We analyzed a 17-year sample of behavioral and genetic data from the Kasekela chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) community in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, to test the hypothesis that male aggression toward females increases male reproductive success. We examined the effect of male aggression toward females during ovarian cycling, including periods when the females were sexually receptive (swollen) and periods when they were not. We found that, after controlling for confounding factors, male aggression during a female's swollen periods was positively correlated with copulation frequency. However, aggression toward swollen females was not predictive of paternity. Instead, aggression by high-ranking males toward females during their nonswollen periods was positively associated with likelihood of paternity. This indicates that long-term patterns of intimidation allow high-ranking males to increase their reproductive success, supporting the sexual coercion hypothesis. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present genetic evidence of sexual coercion as an adaptive strategy in a social mammal.

A model of sequential heart and composite tissue allotransplant in rats.

BACKGROUND: Some of the 600,000 patients with solid organ allotransplants need reconstruction with a composite tissue allotransplant, such as the hand, abdominal wall, or face. The aim of this study was to develop a rat model for assessing the effects of a secondary composite tissue allotransplant on a primary heart allotransplant. METHODS: Hearts of Wistar Kyoto rats were harvested and transplanted heterotopically to the neck of recipient Fisher 344 rats. The anastomoses were performed between the donor brachiocephalic artery and the recipient left common carotid artery, and between the donor pulmonary artery and the recipient external jugular vein. Recipients received cyclosporine A for 10 days only. Heart rate was assessed noninvasively. The sequential composite tissue allotransplant consisted of a 3 x 3-cm abdominal musculocutaneous flap harvested from Lewis rats and transplanted to the abdomen of the heart allotransplant recipients. The abdominal flap vessels were connected to the femoral vessels. No further immunosuppression was administered following the composite tissue allotransplant. Ten days after composite tissue allotransplantation, rejection of the heart and abdominal flap was assessed histologically. RESULTS: The rat survival rate of the two-stage transplant surgery was 80 percent. The transplanted heart rate decreased from 150 +/- 22 beats per minute immediately after transplant to 83 +/- 12 beats per minute on day 20 (10 days after stopping immunosuppression). CONCLUSIONS: This sequential allotransplant model is technically demanding. It will facilitate investigation of the effects of a secondary composite tissue allotransplant following primary solid organ transplantation and could be useful in developing future immunotherapeutic strategies.

Finite mixture distributions, sequential likelihood and the EM algorithm

A popular way to account for unobserved heterogeneity is to assume that the data are drawn from a finite mixture distribution. A barrier to using finite mixture models is that parameters that could previously be estimated in stages must now be estimated jointly: using mixture distributions destroys any additive separability of the log-likelihood function. We show, however, that an extension of the EM algorithm reintroduces additive separability, thus allowing one to estimate parameters sequentially during each maximization step. In establishing this result, we develop a broad class of estimators for mixture models. Returning to the likelihood problem, we show that, relative to full information maximum likelihood, our sequential estimator can generate large computational savings with little loss of efficiency.

Stream segregation on a single electrode as a function of pulse rate in cochlear implant listeners.

While cochlear implants (CIs) usually provide high levels of speech recognition in quiet, speech recognition in noise remains challenging. To overcome these difficulties, it is important to understand how implanted listeners separate a target signal from interferers. Stream segregation has been studied extensively in both normal and electric hearing, as a function of place of stimulation. However, the effects of pulse rate, independent of place, on the perceptual grouping of sequential sounds in electric hearing have not yet been investigated. A rhythm detection task was used to measure stream segregation. The results of this study suggest that while CI listeners can segregate streams based on differences in pulse rate alone, the amount of stream segregation observed decreases as the base pulse rate increases. Further investigation of the perceptual dimensions encoded by the pulse rate and the effect of sequential presentation of different stimulation rates on perception could be beneficial for the future development of speech processing strategies for CIs.

Probabilistic choice: A simple invariance.

When subjects must choose repeatedly between two or more alternatives, each of which dispenses reward on a probabilistic basis (two-armed bandit ), their behavior is guided by the two possible outcomes, reward and nonreward. The simplest stochastic choice rule is that the probability of choosing an alternative increases following a reward and decreases following a nonreward (reward following ). We show experimentally and theoretically that animal subjects behave as if the absolute magnitudes of the changes in choice probability caused by reward and nonreward do not depend on the response which produced the reward or nonreward (source independence ), and that the effects of reward and nonreward are in constant ratio under fixed conditions (effect-ratio invariance )--properties that fit the definition of satisficing . Our experimental results are either not predicted by, or are inconsistent with, other theories of free-operant choice such as Bush-Mosteller, molar maximization, momentary maximizing, and melioration (matching).

Chondrogenesis and mineralization during in vitro culture of human mesenchymal stem cells on three-dimensional woven scaffolds.

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) and three-dimensional (3D) woven poly(ɛ-caprolactone) (PCL) scaffolds are promising tools for skeletal tissue engineering. We hypothesized that in vitro culture duration and medium additives can individually and interactively influence the structure, composition, mechanical, and molecular properties of engineered tissues based on hMSCs and 3D poly(ɛ-caprolactone). Bone marrow hMSCs were suspended in collagen gel, seeded on scaffolds, and cultured for 1, 21, or 45 days under chondrogenic and/or osteogenic conditions. Structure, composition, biomechanics, and gene expression were analyzed. In chondrogenic medium, cartilaginous tissue formed by day 21, and hypertrophic mineralization was observed in the newly formed extracellular matrix at the interface with underlying scaffold by day 45. Glycosaminoglycan, hydroxyproline, and calcium contents, and alkaline phosphatase activity depended on culture duration and medium additives, with significant interactive effects (all p < 0.0001). The 45-day constructs exhibited mechanical properties on the order of magnitude of native articular cartilage (aggregate, Young's, and shear moduli of 0.15, 0.12, and 0.033 MPa, respectively). Gene expression was characteristic of chondrogenesis and endochondral bone formation, with sequential regulation of Sox-9, collagen type II, aggrecan, core binding factor alpha 1 (Cbfα1)/Runx2, bone sialoprotein, bone morphogenetic protein-2, and osteocalcin. In contrast, osteogenic medium produced limited osteogenesis. Long-term culture of hMSC on 3D scaffolds resulted in chondrogenesis and regional mineralization at the interface between soft, newly formed engineered cartilage, and stiffer underlying scaffold. These findings merit consideration when developing grafts for osteochondral defect repair.

Coevolution of capitalism and political representation: The choice of electoral systems

Protocorporatist West European countries in which economic interests were collectively organized adopted PR in the first quarter of the twentieth century, whereas liberal countries in which economic interests were not collectively organized did not. Political parties, as Marcus Kreuzer points out, choose electoral systems. So how do economic interests translate into party political incentives to adopt electoral reform? We argue that parties in protocorporatist countries were representative of and closely linked to economic interests. As electoral competition in single member districts increased sharply up to World War I, great difficulties resulted for the representative parties whose leaders were seen as interest committed. They could not credibly compete for votes outside their interest without leadership changes or reductions in interest influence. Proportional representation offered an obvious solution, allowing parties to target their own voters and their organized interest to continue effective influence in the legislature. In each respect, the opposite was true of liberal countries. Data on party preferences strongly confirm this model. (Kreuzer's historical criticisms are largely incorrect, as shown in detail in the online supplementary Appendix.). © 2010 American Political Science Association.

Invasive fungal infections among organ transplant recipients: results of the Transplant-Associated Infection Surveillance Network (TRANSNET).

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal infections (IFIs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality among organ transplant recipients. Multicenter prospective surveillance data to determine disease burden and secular trends are lacking. METHODS: The Transplant-Associated Infection Surveillance Network (TRANSNET) is a consortium of 23 US transplant centers, including 15 that contributed to the organ transplant recipient dataset. We prospectively identified IFIs among organ transplant recipients from March, 2001 through March, 2006 at these sites. To explore trends, we calculated the 12-month cumulative incidence among 9 sequential cohorts. RESULTS: During the surveillance period, 1208 IFIs were identified among 1063 organ transplant recipients. The most common IFIs were invasive candidiasis (53%), invasive aspergillosis (19%), cryptococcosis (8%), non-Aspergillus molds (8%), endemic fungi (5%), and zygomycosis (2%). Median time to onset of candidiasis, aspergillosis, and cryptococcosis was 103, 184, and 575 days, respectively. Among a cohort of 16,808 patients who underwent transplantation between March 2001 and September 2005 and were followed through March 2006, a total of 729 IFIs were reported among 633 persons. One-year cumulative incidences of the first IFI were 11.6%, 8.6%, 4.7%, 4.0%, 3.4%, and 1.3% for small bowel, lung, liver, heart, pancreas, and kidney transplant recipients, respectively. One-year incidence was highest for invasive candidiasis (1.95%) and aspergillosis (0.65%). Trend analysis showed a slight increase in cumulative incidence from 2002 to 2005. CONCLUSIONS: We detected a slight increase in IFIs during the surveillance period. These data provide important insights into the timing and incidence of IFIs among organ transplant recipients, which can help to focus effective prevention and treatment strategies.

Prospective surveillance for invasive fungal infections in hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, 2001-2006: overview of the Transplant-Associated Infection Surveillance Network (TRANSNET) Database.

BACKGROUND: The incidence and epidemiology of invasive fungal infections (IFIs), a leading cause of death among hematopoeitic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients, are derived mainly from single-institution retrospective studies. METHODS: The Transplant Associated Infections Surveillance Network, a network of 23 US transplant centers, prospectively enrolled HSCT recipients with proven and probable IFIs occurring between March 2001 and March 2006. We collected denominator data on all HSCTs preformed at each site and clinical, diagnostic, and outcome information for each IFI case. To estimate trends in IFI, we calculated the 12-month cumulative incidence among 9 sequential subcohorts. RESULTS: We identified 983 IFIs among 875 HSCT recipients. The median age of the patients was 49 years; 60% were male. Invasive aspergillosis (43%), invasive candidiasis (28%), and zygomycosis (8%) were the most common IFIs. Fifty-nine percent and 61% of IFIs were recognized within 60 days of neutropenia and graft-versus-host disease, respectively. Median onset of candidiasis and aspergillosis after HSCT was 61 days and 99 days, respectively. Within a cohort of 16,200 HSCT recipients who received their first transplants between March 2001 and September 2005 and were followed up through March 2006, we identified 718 IFIs in 639 persons. Twelve-month cumulative incidences, based on the first IFI, were 7.7 cases per 100 transplants for matched unrelated allogeneic, 8.1 cases per 100 transplants for mismatched-related allogeneic, 5.8 cases per 100 transplants for matched-related allogeneic, and 1.2 cases per 100 transplants for autologous HSCT. CONCLUSIONS: In this national prospective surveillance study of IFIs in HSCT recipients, the cumulative incidence was highest for aspergillosis, followed by candidiasis. Understanding the epidemiologic trends and burden of IFIs may lead to improved management strategies and study design.

Epistasis among Drosophila persimilis factors conferring hybrid male sterility with D. pseudoobscura bogotana.

The Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller model posits that hybrid incompatibilities result from genetic changes that accumulate during population divergence. Indeed, much effort in recent years has been devoted to identifying genes associated with hybrid incompatibilities, often with limited success, suggesting that hybrid sterility and inviability are frequently caused by complex interactions between multiple loci and not by single or a small number of gene pairs. Our previous study showed that the nature of epistasis between sterility-conferring QTL in the Drosophila persimilis-D. pseudoobscura bogotana species pair is highly specific. Here, we further dissect one of the three QTL underlying hybrid male sterility between these species and provide evidence for multiple factors within this QTL. This result indicates that the number of loci thought to contribute to hybrid dysfunction may have been underestimated, and we discuss how linkage and complex epistasis may be characteristic of the genetics of hybrid incompatibilities. We further pinpoint the location of one locus that confers hybrid male sterility when homozygous, dubbed "mule-like", to roughly 250 kilobases.

Group takeover by a natal male howling monkey (Alouatta palliata) and associated disappearance and injuries of immatures

As part of a long-term study on howling monkey behavior and social dynamics, a known natal male was observed taking over his group from his putative sire. Due to the accidental death of one of the adult males, this natal male had matured in a one-male group and had never observed juvenile male emigration nor adult male immigration and associated behaviors. Nevertheless, the behaviors associated with the takeover were indistinguishable from those of an immigrant male, including disappearance of immatures, one of whom was found with extensive injuries. While it cannot be said that the natal male inherited these behaviors from his presumed father, it can be said that he exhibited species-typical behaviors associated with male takeover in the absence of observational learning. © 1994 Japan Monkey Centre.

Chimpanzees and bonobos exhibit divergent spatial memory development.

Spatial cognition and memory are critical cognitive skills underlying foraging behaviors for all primates. While the emergence of these skills has been the focus of much research on human children, little is known about ontogenetic patterns shaping spatial cognition in other species. Comparative developmental studies of nonhuman apes can illuminate which aspects of human spatial development are shared with other primates, versus which aspects are unique to our lineage. Here we present three studies examining spatial memory development in our closest living relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (P. paniscus). We first compared memory in a naturalistic foraging task where apes had to recall the location of resources hidden in a large outdoor enclosure with a variety of landmarks (Studies 1 and 2). We then compared older apes using a matched memory choice paradigm (Study 3). We found that chimpanzees exhibited more accurate spatial memory than bonobos across contexts, supporting predictions from these species' different feeding ecologies. Furthermore, chimpanzees - but not bonobos - showed developmental improvements in spatial memory, indicating that bonobos exhibit cognitive paedomorphism (delays in developmental timing) in their spatial abilities relative to chimpanzees. Together, these results indicate that the development of spatial memory may differ even between closely related species. Moreover, changes in the spatial domain can emerge during nonhuman ape ontogeny, much like some changes seen in human children.

A fruit in the hand or two in the bush? Divergent risk preferences in chimpanzees and bonobos.

Human and non-human animals tend to avoid risky prospects. If such patterns of economic choice are adaptive, risk preferences should reflect the typical decision-making environments faced by organisms. However, this approach has not been widely used to examine the risk sensitivity in closely related species with different ecologies. Here, we experimentally examined risk-sensitive behaviour in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), closely related species whose distinct ecologies are thought to be the major selective force shaping their unique behavioural repertoires. Because chimpanzees exploit riskier food sources in the wild, we predicted that they would exhibit greater tolerance for risk in choices about food. Results confirmed this prediction: chimpanzees significantly preferred the risky option, whereas bonobos preferred the fixed option. These results provide a relatively rare example of risk-prone behaviour in the context of gains and show how ecological pressures can sculpt economic decision making.