Risk communication in clinical trials: a cognitive experiment and a survey.

BACKGROUND: A Royal Statistical Society Working Party recently recommended that "Greater use should be made of numerical, as opposed to verbal, descriptions of risk" in first-in-man clinical trials. This echoed the view of many clinicians and psychologists about risk communication. As the clinical trial industry expands rapidly across the globe, it is important to understand risk communication in Asian countries. METHODS: We conducted a cognitive experiment about participation in a hypothetical clinical trial of a pain relief medication and a survey in cancer and arthritis patients in Singapore. In part 1 of the experiment, the patients received information about the risk of side effects in one of three formats (frequency, percentage and verbal descriptor) and in one of two sequences (from least to most severe and from most to least severe), and were asked about their willingness to participate. In part 2, the patients received information about the risk in all three formats, in the same sequence, and were again asked about their willingness to participate. A survey of preference for risk presentation methods and usage of verbal descriptors immediately followed. RESULTS: Willingness to participate and the likelihood of changing one's decision were not affected by the risk presentation methods. Most patients indicated a preference for the frequency format, but patients with primary school or no formal education were indifferent. While the patients used the verbal descriptors "very common", "common" and "very rare" in ways similar to the European Commission's Guidelines, their usage of the descriptors "uncommon" and "rare" was substantially different from the EU's. CONCLUSION: In this sample of Asian cancer and arthritis patients, risk presentation format had no impact on willingness to participate in a clinical trial. However, there is a clear preference for the frequency format. The lay use of verbal descriptors was substantially different from the EU's.

Eco-evolutionary trophic dynamics: loss of top predators drives trophic evolution and ecology of prey.

Ecosystems are being altered on a global scale by the extirpation of top predators. The ecological effects of predator removal have been investigated widely; however, predator removal can also change natural selection acting on prey, resulting in contemporary evolution. Here we tested the role of predator removal on the contemporary evolution of trophic traits in prey. We utilized a historical introduction experiment where Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) were relocated from a site with predatory fishes to a site lacking predators. To assess the trophic consequences of predator release, we linked individual morphology (cranial, jaw, and body) to foraging performance. Our results show that predator release caused an increase in guppy density and a "sharpening" of guppy trophic traits, which enhanced food consumption rates. Predator release appears to have shifted natural selection away from predator escape ability and towards resource acquisition ability. Related diet and mesocosm studies suggest that this shift enhances the impact of guppies on lower trophic levels in a fashion nuanced by the omnivorous feeding ecology of the species. We conclude that extirpation of top predators may commonly select for enhanced feeding performance in prey, with important cascading consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Radium and barium removal through blending hydraulic fracturing fluids with acid mine drainage.

Wastewaters generated during hydraulic fracturing of the Marcellus Shale typically contain high concentrations of salts, naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), and metals, such as barium, that pose environmental and public health risks upon inadequate treatment and disposal. In addition, fresh water scarcity in dry regions or during periods of drought could limit shale gas development. This paper explores the possibility of using alternative water sources and their impact on NORM levels through blending acid mine drainage (AMD) effluent with recycled hydraulic fracturing flowback fluids (HFFFs). We conducted a series of laboratory experiments in which the chemistry and NORM of different mix proportions of AMD and HFFF were examined after reacting for 48 h. The experimental data combined with geochemical modeling and X-ray diffraction analysis suggest that several ions, including sulfate, iron, barium, strontium, and a large portion of radium (60-100%), precipitated into newly formed solids composed mainly of Sr barite within the first ∼ 10 h of mixing. The results imply that blending AMD and HFFF could be an effective management practice for both remediation of the high NORM in the Marcellus HFFF wastewater and beneficial utilization of AMD that is currently contaminating waterways in northeastern U.S.A.

Impacts of Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining on the Mud River, West Virginia: Selenium Accumulation, Trophic Transfer, and Toxicity in Fish

Selenium (Se) is a micronutrient necessary for the function of a variety of important enzymes; Se also exhibits a narrow range in concentrations between essentiality and toxicity. Oviparous vertebrates such as birds and fish are especially sensitive to Se toxicity, which causes reproductive impairment and defects in embryo development. Selenium occurs naturally in the Earth's crust, but it can be mobilized by a variety of anthropogenic activities, including agricultural practices, coal burning, and mining.

Mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining is a form of surface mining found throughout central Appalachia in the United States that involves blasting off the tops of mountains to access underlying coal seams. Spoil rock from the mountain is placed into adjacent valleys, forming valley fills, which bury stream headwaters and negatively impact surface water quality. This research focused on the biological impacts of Se leached from MTR/VF coal mining operations located around the Mud River, West Virginia.

In order to assess the status of Se in a lotic (flowing) system such as the Mud River, surface water, insects, and fish samples including creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) were collected from a mining impacted site as well as from a reference site not impacted by mining. Analysis of samples from the mined site showed increased conductivity and Se in the surface waters compared to the reference site in addition to increased concentrations of Se in insects and fish. Histological analysis of mined site fish gills showed a lack of normal parasites, suggesting parasite populations may be disrupted due to poor water quality. X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy techniques were used to determine the speciation of Se in insect and creek chub samples. Insects contained approximately 40-50% inorganic Se (selenate and selenite) and 50-60% organic Se (Se-methionine and Se-cystine) while fish tissues contained lower proportions of inorganic Se than insects, instead having higher proportions of organic Se in the forms of methyl-Se-cysteine, Se-cystine, and Se-methionine.

Otoliths, calcified inner ear structures, were also collected from Mud River creek chubs and green sunfish and analyzed for Se content using laser ablation inductively couple mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Significant differences were found between the two species of fish, based on the concentrations of otolith Se. Green sunfish otoliths from all sites contained background or low concentrations of otolith Se (< 1 µg/g) that were not significantly different between mined and unmined sites. In contrast creek chub otoliths from the historically mined site contained much higher (≥ 5 µg/g, up to approximately 68 µg/g) concentrations of Se than for the same species in the unmined site or for the green sunfish. Otolith Se concentrations were related to muscle Se concentrations for creek chubs (R2 = 0.54, p = 0.0002 for the last 20% of the otolith Se versus muscle Se) while no relationship was observed for green sunfish.

Additional experiments using biofilms grown in the Mud River showed increased Se in mined site biofilms compared to the reference site. When we fed fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) on these biofilms in the laboratory they accumulated higher concentrations of Se in liver and ovary tissues compared to fathead minnows fed on reference site biofilms. No differences in Se accumulation were found in muscle from either treatment group. Biofilms were also centrifuged and separated into filamentous green algae and the remaining diatom fraction. The majority of Se was found in the diatom fraction with only about 1/3rd of total biofilm Se concentration present in the filamentous green algae fraction

Finally, zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos were exposed to aqueous Se in the form of selenate, selenite, and L-selenomethionine in an attempt to determine if oxidative stress plays a role in selenium embryo toxicity. Selenate and selenite exposure did not induce embryo deformities (lordosis and craniofacial malformation). L-selenomethionine, however, induced significantly higher deformity rates at 100 µg/L compared to controls. Antioxidant rescue of L-selenomethionime induced deformities was attempted in embryos using N-acetylcysteine (NAC). Pretreatment with NAC significantly reduced deformities in the zebrafish embryos secondarily treated with L-selenomethionine, suggesting that oxidative stress may play a role in Se toxicity. Selenite exposure also induced a 6.6-fold increase in glutathione-S-transferase pi class 2 gene expression, which is involved in xenobiotic transformation. No changes in gene expression were observed for selenate or L-selenomethionine-exposed embryos.

The findings in this dissertation contribute to the understanding of how Se bioaccumulates in a lotic system and is transferred through a simulated foodweb in addition to further exploring oxidative stress as a potential mechanism for Se-induced embryo toxicity. Future studies should continue to pursue the role of oxidative stress and other mechanisms in Se toxicity and the biotransformation of Se in aquatic ecosystems.

A range-wide experiment to investigate nutrient and soil moisture interactions in loblolly pine plantations

© 2015 by the authors.The future climate of the southeastern USA is predicted to be warmer, drier and more variable in rainfall, which may increase drought frequency and intensity. Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) is the most important commercial tree species in the world and is planted on ~11 million ha within its native range in the southeastern USA. A regional study was installed to evaluate effects of decreased rainfall and nutrient additions on loblolly pine plantation productivity and physiology. Four locations were established to capture the range-wide variability of soil and climate. Treatments were initiated in 2012 and consisted of a factorial combination of throughfall reduction (approximate 30% reduction) and fertilization (complete suite of nutrients). Tree and stand growth were measured at each site. Results after two growing seasons indicate a positive but variable response of fertilization on stand volume increment at all four sites and a negative effect of throughfall reduction at two sites. Data will be used to produce robust process model parameterizations useful for simulating loblolly pine growth and function under future, novel climate and management scenarios. The resulting improved models will provide support for developing management strategies to increase pine plantation productivity and carbon sequestration under a changing climate.